The season that was: Round 24, 2024 v Hawthorn

Some quick housekeeping before we get into the final North Melbourne match analysis of the season, one that also doubles as a look at the year as a whole. The reason for no post last week:

Shinboner programming note: No post this week. I'd like to give this big grandiose reason for why, but really I just can't find anything that matters big picture from the game. Instead there's a bumper end of season post planned for next Sunday.

— Ricky Mangidis (@rickm18) August 18, 2024

Today’s post has little to do with the Hawthorn game specifically and is more of an overarching look at 2024.

It’s important to not let the last two games colour the progress made through the second half of the season, while also understanding there’s still plenty of work to be done.

Let’s get into it.

—–

While the North Melbourne match analyses are – and always will be – free for all, for those who want a little bit extra the Patreon continues to run. There are three tiers available in 2024:

$2.50 – Debutant – To show support for the site without receiving any extra features
$5 – Rising Star – The first level where there are extra features and early access for certain things
$10 – Brownlow – First access to everything and anything set up for Patrons

To find out more details and sign up, head here for the Patreon page.

—–

The week-to-week evolution

The switch at the bye to a three-tall forward setup, along with beefing up the midfield rotation with extra defensive responsibilities, had a positive effect until the petrol tank hit empty – maybe even less than empty – with a couple weeks to go.

Much like how this year’s bye provided a chance to reset, refocus, and change part of the process, this off-season will allow similar.

If there’s a genuine second key forward target, it may neuter the need to play three, given as it stands Toby Pink and Brynn Teakle are more stopgaps rather than genuine long-term options.

And by the same token, Colby McKercher isn’t going to play off half back forever. That opens up plenty of discussion on how many rebounders are the right amount, along with the push v pull on attacking traits v defensive frailties.

But overall, it’s a nice look at how the team evolved week-to-week. As a fun game, try to guess how many of the 23 will play in Round 1, 2025 under the pretence everyone will be fit. My guess is 14.

What worked

The team structure improvements have already been noted above, which leaves this section to focus on individuals. Let’s rip through them, focusing on the clear wins who have either stepped up, taken their game to another level or set themselves up for the future:

Harry Sheezel: The much-anticipated switch to a mid/forward role happened seamlessly; so smoothly it surprised me. I thought there’d have to be an adjustment period. A full pre-season to add a bit more to his physical attributes will have Sheezel taking a leap. Another leap, considering he’s already approaching the top tier.

George Wardlaw: No soft tissue injuries for an entire season – his five games missed coming from concussions (two x two weeks) and a rest (Round 6) is a huge result for someone who struggled with hamstrings over his junior career and at times in 2023. That, plus the glimpses he showed this year, should all coalesce into a significant step forward in 2025 if he stays fit.

Colby McKercher: Coming as advertised in his debut season, McKercher will be spectacular when his body can hold up for a full campaign. The extra ball use further up the ground to assist the midfield – personal preference would be in a starting wing role and situationally floating inside – will add another, sorely needed dimension to North’s forward half game. Whether the switch is made in early 2025, late 2025, or maybe even the start of 2026 will depend on a whole host of factors.

Darcy Tucker: Maybe a surprise addition to some, having Tucker available and filling a variety of roles all season has proved invaluable. There was some time on the wing, then a shift to half back, and sporadic time at half forward as well. Every team needs role players and Tucker filled his slot well.

Paul Curtis: 51 scoring shots (30.21) is an undoubted tick given his role, but arguably the most promising part of his season was his marked improvement without the ball. Because Curtis’ offensive talents will always shine, balancing it out with better defensive attributes allowed his third season to be the best yet. The key to maintain consistency next year and not drift back into bad habits.

Charlie Comben: Maybe the biggest tick of Comben’s season is that as it went on, people stopped holding their breath every time he launched into a contest. Maybe until the last couple of weeks at least. To go from nine games in his first four AFL seasons to 19 in 2024 was a huge step in so many ways. Whether he stays back or goes forward (personal preference: back) remains to be seen, but either way the campaign has been nothing but a big, bold tick for him.

Jackson Archer: He’s been a regular feature on these pages over the year, making for little need to dive into the progression again. But as we enter the off-season he’s a player to put into the Round 1, 2025 team in permanent marker, playing in a tricky role to boot. Given the week-to-week evidence he’s working hard on all areas of his game, he should be far, far from the finished product.

Tristan Xerri: Putting aside the All-Australian discussion for a moment (just quietly, why aren’t people talking about Rowan Marshall), seeing Xerri blossom into a consistent, physical ruckman who rarely gets beaten has been one of the standouts of the year. Sometimes as a ruck, not getting beaten is just as important as the attacking benefits, but as the year went on Xerri found a way to combine both. There’s still plenty more improvement to be made which is the exciting part.

Extra mentions: Griffin Logue’s return, albeit shortlived, from his ACL tear, Aidan Corr’s three-month block starting from the St Kilda game in Round 8, Bailey Scott remaining reliable, Tom Powell playing his first full season.

The reason this has all been listed out line by line is because there have been clear steps forward in 2024, something easy to forget after a combined losing margin of 220 points over the last fortnight.

It hasn’t reflected in the win-loss record, but it’s been a season of positioning and shuffling blocks into place.

Pending fitness, there are plenty more locks – long-term locks – for next year’s Round 1 side than there were at this stage last year for Round 1, 2024.

To put it into perspective, 2024 was, by far, North’s most settled season since at least 2018. And even so it came with Tarryn Thomas’ pre-season sacking and the head coach under a continuing external investigation.

The building blocks put in place this year will start to pay off with a focused approach to list building this off-season, and on-field in 2025.

What didn’t work

As a collective, the forward group struggled from week-to-week. It is by far the biggest area of need for North. You can point to improvements in nearly every other area of the ground – both team and individual, while understanding there’s still a way to go – but there were few similarities at the attacking end.

When a team is 18^th for scores per inside 50, 18^th for inside 50 differential, and 18^th for allowing opposition rebound 50s to inside 50, it’s nearly impossible to put a consistent score on the board from week to week.

To be fair, not all of it is on the forwards specifically; part of it is down to the midfielders and the connection between both lines cruelling the inside 50 delivery.

But as a whole the talent isn’t there yet. We saw the immediate uptick when Pink and Teakle started playing as the second and third key forwards even though, as discussed earlier, they shape as short-term placeholders instead of long-term pieces. Simply having bigger bodies allowed roles and structures to fall more into place with individuals’ respective skill sets.

The room for further improvement there with upgrades is enormous, and likewise with small/pressure forwards. It should be the biggest focus over the summer. If those two areas do improve it will benefit the team both offensively and defensively and be the biggest reason for more success.

The other areas that need improvement come largely from a list build perspective, which is what we’ll get to in the remaining sections.

—–

For those who have missed previous match analyses, here are links to the last five editions:

Gone in 120 seconds: Round 22 v West Coast
Late season escapades: Round 21 v Richmond
Taking stock: Round 20 v Geelong
Forward progress: Round 19 v Carlton
Reality check: Round 18 v Sydney

—–

List demographics

Of course there’ll be a few more red lines over the next fortnight as the list changes continue, but in the meantime the clear takeaway is North’s search for experience is well founded.

The type and class of player they look for will speak to the areas they feel need urgent attention. For example, obviously there won’t be a quest to have a number one key defender or forward because Logue and Nick Larkey have those parts of the ground locked away.

But someone like a Luke Parker type that provides stronger structure both midfield and forward at ground level, while teaching the rest of the list, makes perfect sense.

Or if the plan is to forge ahead with Comben as a forward instead of a defender, looking for a second tall back – maybe someone like an Adam Tomlinson who comes from a strong defensive style – to soak up games while Wil Dawson continues to progress, avoiding the need to throw him into the fire week after week.

To add to it, there’s the query of when the list management think the younger crew will be ready to fully take the reins. If it’s short term, then the look for external experience will largely be for players who only have a couple of years left.

But if they think it’ll take a little longer, then the look for external experience will be for players who have a chance of sticking around for the medium term.

It’s a situation where the moves made will tell us plenty about the internal analysis of the list as a whole. Because there wasn’t a heap of on-field experience available this year.

Minutes played by age

This graphic backs up the experience discussion. It’s all heavily skewed to the front half of players’ careers. At time of writing, no team gave more minutes to players in their age 22 year or under than North Melbourne. Although the Sunday games are still to be placed into the data, the ranking won’t change.

And ‘young players = good in time’ isn’t automatic, we all know that. But having the on-field output laid out in this way provides further illustration of the above point about experience.

Long-term injuries to a couple of players – namely Josh Goater and Brayden George – prevented what should have been a key year of progression. Although on the other side of the equation, Dawson’s quicker than expected development for a first-year key position prospect balanced it out somewhat.

I’d expect some creativity with North’s draft hand. As it stands their first three picks are 2, 22, and 40, which isn’t ideal for their current state.

Draft experts (i.e. definitely not me in any way, shape, or form) say this year’s pool is even, but more importantly for a North point of view, deep in prospects. The possibility of splitting picks, getting more numbers in to continue regenerating, while pulling other levers to bring in experience seems like the logical route.

Contract status

Reports suggest Dawson and Riley Hardeman are close to extending for another year, although at time of writing those haven’t been confirmed. There are also conflicting reports on Bigoa Nyuon’s deal but he’s listed in the 2024 column for now.

Hamish Free’s concussion issues mean he’s all but certain to depart. The most important thing, more than anything football related, is the club supports him to make sure he’s in the best possible spot for the next stage in his life.

The two worth highlighting, for different reasons, are Robert Hansen and Cooper Harvey.

From a sentimental – and practical – view, it’s been disappointing to see Harvey’s struggles to come on. With the team screaming out for extra ground level presence up forward, a spot could have been his.

Then Hansen’s last couple of weeks have been a noted improvement on his prior AFL exposure. He clearly has the instincts, but the physical attributes are a question. It’s almost like the Phoenix Spicer discussion last year, but half a step above.

If a bit of extra strength and a half yard of speed – not necessarily top line, but even some extra agility or acceleration – can come with an extra pre-season then it’s worth keeping him around given the paucity of options.

Overall, recency bias can influence the view of an entire body of work. While the last two weeks were no one’s idea of a good finish, there are still more than enough positives to take out of the year.

The start of 2024 was essentially ground zero from a list build point of view. All the remaining experience had departed at the end of the prior year and in many respects it was almost like the early stages of an expansion team. How it got to this point has been covered ad nauseam on here over the last few years and it’s not worth repeating today.

The important point is to recognise it and use it to inform what comes next. What’s done is done and it’s about using the knowledge gained this year for future steps.