Forward progress: Round 19, 2024 v Carlton

You dedicate an entire section in last week’s post to the benefits of a settled structure and then it changes at the next possible opportunity.

But North Melbourne’s changes against Carlton didn’t stop the forward progress, pushing the second-placed side from start to near-finish.

56 inside 50s was North’s second highest tally of 2024, only narrowly behind the 57 v Fremantle in Round 2 as a season high. A clear focus on stretching Carlton’s defence for height had its benefits and the full-ground system stayed relatively intact throughout.

Even the third quarter, where Carlton kicked five goals in quick time, came largely from a combination of their good play and unfortunate North errors.

Let’s bounce around a few topics in what will be an umpire-free zone after their dreadful all-round performance for both sides. Except for that sentence I guess.

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Griffin Logue

The headline act for North was Logue’s return after 12 months out with a torn ACL. Logue went straight to Charlie Curnow and acquitted himself well, Curnow’s four goals hardly telling the true story of the head-to-head given the first came in a broken play, the second from a scrambled hoof forward, and the fourth from a holding the ball tackle on Colby McKercher.

Logue instantly settled into the role of backline leader, allowing Aidan Corr to continue his form by blanketing Harry McKay; at least for the 95 percent of the game where McKay didn’t have superhuman powers immediately following a head knock.

To be completely honest, I was anticipating the rest of this season to be about getting Logue’s legs under him, setting up for a full pre-season and hitting 2025 full steam. It felt unrealistic to expect a key defender to immediately contribute but contribute Logue did.

Arguably the best part about Logue’s return is the intangibles of him knowing exactly how much he can push the line* without getting penalised (most of the time).

Compare Logue’s antics to anything any North defender did on Good Friday, when umpires were blowing the whistle like it was their last ever chance to get involved, and Logue was 100 times worse. But because he’s a recognised name there’s less focus on his direct matchup and he gets away with more.

(*Counter to go against my no umpire note from the top: Much of this was undone by the deluxe spray Logue and the rest of the defenders gave the umpire after the 50-metre penalty in the last quarter. Completely unsurprising the exact same umpire managed to pay a free kick next time Carlton went inside 50. Human nature)

The structure looked to be favouring Logue on the deepest forward, which raises some questions on who he takes in the coming matches: Geelong next week, West Coast in Round 22 and the Bulldogs in Round 23 provide multiple options.

But for now it’s just a pleasure to see him back and contributing at AFL level.

Charlie Comben

Because of Logue’s return and Carlton only going with two key forwards + one ruck, Comben was thrown forward to maintain three talls at that end and look to stretch the Blues’ two-tall defence.

Comben had a favourable matchup against Sam Durdin and made the most of it in the second quarter, even as he was still adjusting to life in the forward line.

A couple instincts learned during his time down back will take some time to undo, his positioning occasionally defaulting to one you’d expect a defender to take instead of the other way round.

But that’s understandable and should come smoothly enough. The two main areas of focus when it comes to Comben as a forward, and determining his ceiling there, are this:

1) Whether he’s able to provide more than ‘just’ a contested mark and can offer a consistent threat on the lead as well.

It should go without saying, but I’ll reiterate anyway, that Comben’s contested work and general hunger means he’ll never be a non-factor. But the craft that comes with working defenders over on the lead and in space separates big bodies from the genuine quality key forwards.

The answer won’t come any time soon, given the time it takes to build and learn the skill. It’s one half of what to watch, with the other half being…

2) The set shot routine, which understandably looks strange to highlight immediately after kicking three straight.

At the moment it’s a little inconsistent, with a tendency for his kicking foot to come across the ball in a hooking motion – sometimes a long way, other times not as much – but there in some fashion more often than not.

It could be just a matter of needing consistent reps to iron it out, a luxury Comben hasn’t had in the forward line since arriving at North.

Much like the forward craft, it won’t be something that’ll have a conclusion in the short term, but something to continually watch.

Pending fitness at both ends of the ground, it does appear Comben will play out the rest of the season forward, allowing for more looks and progression.

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For those who have missed previous match analyses, here are links to the last five matches:

Reality check: Round 18 v Sydney
477 days later: Round 17 v Gold Coast
Midfield mixing: Round 16 v Western Bulldogs
Decisions and progress: Round 15 v Melbourne
Riding the rollercoaster: Round 14 v Collingwood

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Dylan Stephens

It’s completely understandable why Stephens can be polarising among a supporter base. He’s never going to be a contested player, his skill set is very outside, and he’s the type of player that goes as the team goes, i.e. look better in a good team, worse in a poor team, and not have the capability to change that.

But instead of focusing on what Stephens can’t do, flipping the page to his positives shows the potential to fill a position of need if playing well.

Stephens’ 508 metres gained was second most for North, behind only Bailey Scott’s 651. Largely playing as the open side winger where possible (as opposed to the one who sits defensive side of stoppages and tucks in to provide support), his run and outside work helped North’s ball movement.

It’s not a coincidence Stephens had his best game for North on the same night the team managed their second highest inside 50 tally for the season.

Long term Stephens’ ceiling might only be somewhere between the 15^th-25^th best player on a good team when in form, especially if McKercher eventually graduates to a hybrid wing/on-ball role somewhat similar to Errol Gulden.

But there’s nothing wrong with that on a list when it’s surrounded by the requisite top-tier players.

The system holding up

Normally after conceding 107 points and 27 scoring shots, there’s a nagging feeling that system breakdowns caused a large part of it.

But going back through the footage revealed little of the sort. For example, Carlton’s seven third quarter goals, in order, came from:

1) Logue’s simple turnover kick
2) A rushed kick forward falling to Owies
3) Curnow reacting first to a scrambled kick forward
4) Curnow beating Logue in a one-on-one
5) North not snapping into defensive mode quickly enough after their clearing kick
6) McKercher slipping over deep in defence
7) A bouncing, bouncing ball basically falling into McKay’s hands

Only one of those seven can be attributed to system, a couple from avoidable errors, a couple more from the general luck/bounce of the ball that happens in a game, and the rest from good Carlton play.

Make no mistake, the Blues were the better team for large parts of the third quarter. But North’s system held up relatively well throughout. Sometimes things just don’t bounce your way or you get beaten by better players. It happens.

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Comparing Sunday to Good Friday

In last week’s post I mentioned this game would provide an opportunity to make a neat comparison for what had changed since the last time North faced Carlton, on Good Friday in Round 3.

These were the personnel changes, keeping in mind there is one fewer defensive rotation, one more forward rotation, and a little bit of overlap between the midfielders and forwards with some roles:

Defence
In: Logue, Archer, Tucker
Out: Pink, K Dawson, Sheezel, Scott

Midfield
In: Sheezel, Scott
Out: Lazzaro, Tucker

Forward
In: Comben, Teakle, Ford, Hansen
Out: Coleman-Jones, Stephenson, Duursma

In each line there are players in much better form than earlier in the season, a combination of extra experience, more match fitness, and extra understanding of their respective roles.

Perhaps the biggest change came at the bye with the decision to not only switch to a three-tall forward setup, but also the improvement at ground level in the same line; Eddie Ford and Paul Curtis providing more without the ball, Jy Simpkin’s move to a mid-first rather than forward-first allowing Sheezel more time in dangerous areas, and Liam Shiels alternating between the third winger and general adult in the room.

Even though Carlton aren’t a good ball movement team in transition, ranking third last in going from defensive 50 to forward 50, for North to continue that theme while registering 56 entries of their own shows consistent progress with their own forward structures.

Because on Good Friday, Carlton were able to transition the ball with relative ease and score heavily from it. Not so on Sunday:

Carlton in 2024 v North	Round 3	Round 19
Rebound 50s	32	39
% of rebound 50s to inside 50s	40.6%	20.5%

It backs up the eye test showing plenty of improvement since early in the season.

Next up is another return meeting, this time against Geelong. Last time North were all over the shop with midfield structures, and although Blundstone Arena provides a slightly different challenge to GMHBA Stadium, general stoppage and contest setups – for the most part – transfer from ground to ground neatly.

It’s another excellent opportunity to gauge improvement in a key area of the game.