Late season escapades: Round 21, 2024 v Richmond

Late season games like Saturday at Marvel Stadium are always tricky to draw conclusions from.

It’s not quite max horsepower from both teams, especially in this case when it’s 17^th v 18^th drawing to the end of a long, physical year. In many ways any topic can be twisted to suit an individual narrative:

“Player X was great, that’s why he’s going to be a star!”
“Player Y was bad, that’s why he’s no good!”

So naturally after all that introduction, it’s exactly what today’s post is going to be about – jumping around between topics from Saturday’s game and assessing how much to take out of it.

This should be fun.

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Has Jackson Archer taken another step forward?

Over the last year or two there has been the regular check ins on Jackson Archer’s progress and the things he’d need to tick off to become an AFL regular.

The last update was Round 15 v Melbourne where it was the first glimpse of the next phase in his game. Words at the time:

It was the first time Archer had consistently made aggressive decisions in the greater team structure, taking a few more risks with his defensive positioning and looking to influence there, in addition to his primary role. If something along those lines can be maintained it’s step two of three on the way to a long-term player.

Six weeks later, franked by his performance against Richmond and Shai Bolton, it feels fair to say step two can be written in with pen as opposed to pencil. Archer now looks comfortable in balancing his primary responsibilities with the desire to intercept and be aggressive in the general team structure.

All that’s left is to improve his disposal from limited (which is still fine when combined with the other two steps, to be clear) to league average and then we’re looking at a 200+ game player.

Verdict: Lock him in.

Is there value in Charlie Comben playing the last three games?

As a self-admitted very unfit person, I have few opportunities to say, ‘hey, I think I’m moving better than that AFL player’.

But watching Charlie Comben in agony* trying to move for 10-15 seconds at the end of each effort prompted that thought.

(*either that or he should teach a few wrestlers how to sell)

It was equal parts inspiring, comical, and worrying given Comben’s well documented injury history. And there is definite value in learning how to play through the ailments that pile up over the course of a year.

But given the enormous strides Comben has taken this season, the query becomes how much these last three games are worth the risk of not being fit for day one of pre-season.

Verdict: There’s value in one more game given West Coast’s experience at either end. After that the risk-reward might tip too far to the former.

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For those who have missed previous match analyses, here are links to the last five matches:

Taking stock: Round 20 v Geelong
Forward progress: Round 19 v Carlton
Reality check: Round 18 v Sydney
477 days later: Round 17 v Gold Coast
Midfield mixing: Round 16 v Western Bulldogs

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Getting trapped in the defensive half

Given Richmond had 60 inside 50s, there were plenty of chances for North to rebound out of their back half. They didn’t quite make the most of those opportunities.

Part of it comes from the rebounding section of the defensive unit being either makeshift or on their last legs for the year, mostly an unavoidable part of the game for a team of North’s demographic.

But then the link between the lines broke down often, playing a large part in North spending significant time trapped in their back half. If anything it served as another reminder of how the most important part of North’s development is improving their forward unit, helping the connection all over the field.

For all the improvement North has had since switching to a three-tall look in the forward half, the second and third of those talls aren’t proven at AFL level which limits the ceiling in the short-term.

The solution is simple in terms of player upgrades or internal improvement, but executing the former is tricky, while the latter can’t be fast tracked.

Verdict: No new developments either way.

The small forward conundrum

Speaking of forwards – although this is a tenuous segway given the smalls don’t have a large amount to do with the previous section – Robert Hansen’s three games (two and a half) didn’t light the world on fire.

On Saturday in particular, the lack of belief was the most noticeable thing. In Hansen’s run of good VFL form, he was decisive in his movement, but it’s been missing since his promotion. Whether it’s something that can be fixed with time, or a lost cause at AFL level, we’ll find out in a few short weeks.

But in the meantime there’s two more small forwards out of contract at the end of the season in Blake Drury and Cooper Harvey. If there was ever a chance to see what one (or both) of them are capable of, it’s now or never unless the decisions have already been made.

Verdict: Rotate that spot in the forward unit.

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For those who have missed this so far in 2024, the team-by-team structures are updated every fortnight (at the end of ‘even’ numbered rounds) for every team:

Apart from a picture here, a tweet there, or a Notebook entry from time to time, this feature is exclusively for Patreon subscribers on the $10 tier.

To find out more details and sign up, head here for the Patreon page.

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The in-game positional switcheroo

Dylan Stephens’ early exit with an ankle injury necessitated a positional reshuffle on the wing.

It’s where the experimenting at various times this season – at both AFL and VFL level – paid off as it ended up being a relatively seamless transition.

Jaidyn Stephenson took Stephens’ spot, Tom Powell went to half back, and there was a series of slight reshuffles with midfield priorities to allow Robert Hansen to come in after his substitution.

Ignoring the discussion around individual performance in the first half before the change, the fact the move was available to swing quickly – and logically – spoke to the growing confidence coaches have in players executing different roles if needed.

Perhaps if it was Round 1 and a similar conundrum presented, the execution wouldn’t have been so smooth. But now, in Round 21, there were more options available to take and the right one was chosen.

Verdict: A tick for experimenting, a tick for Powell at half back, not a tick for Stephenson at half back, but a tick for Stephenson in persevering after a tough start.

Was it a step forward?

In an ideal world it would have been a comfortable win from siren to siren against a team playing Tom Brown Tom Brown as their deepest forward at times. As much as I like his game, it’s a rather large drop off to go from who Richmond would have expected to play that role at the start of the season – Tom Lynch – to there.

And yet Richmond were the better side for long periods in general play, had 16 more inside 50s, seven more shots at goal, along with some inaccuracy combined with North’s accuracy. If the Tigers walked away with a win there could have been no complaints. And most other sides would have walked away with a win if afforded similar advantages.

However. It was a different type of game to any North have played recently, arguably at any time since Alastair Clarkson arrived. With a bit of expectation coming in, to figure out a way to hold on when under the pump early, and then hold on late when utterly exhausted, is a grouping of events they haven’t experienced as a collective.

The experience can only help.

Verdict: Yes