Welcome to the fourth annual AFL continuity rankings, a regular pre-season feature on The Shinboner.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, this is how it works:
Patreon subscribers have access to how I keep track of every club’s minutes played and how it helps assessing the state of a list.
At this time of year, I find the ‘<team> has lost hundreds of games of experience’ or ‘<team> cleaned out <x> players’ lines reductive when considering 2025 prospects.
For example, Gold Coast farewelled 12 players last year. Seems like a big deal! In reality only one of those 12 – Jack Lukosius – played more than 500 minutes at AFL level in 2024.
However, if we look at the minutes played in 2024 and assess what has carried over to 2025, we gain a clearer look at which teams have changed the most. We all get excited by shiny new toys, but beforehand it’s just as important to understand the holes left by departures.
Naturally this isn’t meant as a be-all and end-all – high continuity doesn’t always mean great things, much like low continuity doesn’t always sound alarm bells – and the number can be twisted to suit whichever narrative you’d like, but it can be a useful tool to understand a team’s list.
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The Patreon is up and running once again for 2025, which you can find right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice.
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Here’s the graphic for 2025, with one important note: It doesn’t include the players who are already either ruled out for the season or likely to be out with their respective long-term injuries.
That means 2024 minutes from the likes of Todd Marshall and Nic Newman are still included in the relevant teams’ tallies.
The individuals creating the biggest holes to fill are…
Players with 1,000+ minutes in 2024 not returning in 2025
Adelaide: N/A
Brisbane: Joe Daniher (3340~)
Carlton: Matt Kennedy (2170~), Matt Owies (2070~)
Collingwood: John Noble (1925~)
Essendon: Jake Kelly (2230~), Jake Stringer (2175~), Dyson Heppell (1810~)
Fremantle: Tom Emmett (1260~)
Geelong: Zach Tuohy (1820~), Tom Hawkins (1345~)
Gold Coast: Jack Lukosius (2100~)
GWS: Harry Perryman (1980~), James Peatling (1420~)
Hawthorn: N/A
Melbourne: Alex Neal-Bullen (2290~)
North Melbourne: Liam Shiels (1495~), Jaidyn Stephenson (1120~)
Port Adelaide: Dan Houston (2300~), Charlie Dixon (1870~), Francis Evans (1150~)
Richmond: Daniel Rioli (2380~), Shai Bolton (2355~), Liam Baker (1805~), Dustin Martin (1285~), Marlion Pickett (1250~), Jack Graham (1225~)
St Kilda: Josh Battle (2500~), Tim Membrey (1875~), Riley Bonner (1750~), Seb Ross (1140~)
Sydney: N/A
West Coast: Jack Darling (2405~), Tom Barrass (2085~), Alex Witherden (1790~), Josh Rotham (1270~), Jamaine Jones (1020~)
Western Bulldogs: Jack Macrae (1610~), Caleb Daniel (1155~)
Some standouts from the graphic and list:
In the four years I’ve been tallying these, Hawthorn returning 99.8 percent of their previous year’s minutes is by far a new record high. Of the list changes, only Ethan Phillips played a senior game last season. And that’s all it was, one game.
Sydney weren’t too far behind, also moving on only one player who turned out at AFL level in 2024. Luke Parker played nearly 1,000 minutes for the season though, hence the slightly lower number than Hawthorn.
Much like Hawthorn was a new high since starting to tally these, Richmond – perhaps unsurprisingly – set a new low with their total of 76.96 percent. Six of their 10 departures played more than 1,000 minutes, with Rioli and Bolton more than 2,000.
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For those who missed the start of season announcement, you can find it here. And the schedule between now and the start of the season is…
| Post | Patreon access | Public access |
| General 2025 announcement | Live | Live |
| Over/under win total | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 1 | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 2 | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 3 | Live | Live |
| NMFC Match Sim Analysis | Live | |
| The Notebook, Match Sim | Live | Live |
| Continuity Rankings | Live | 27th Feb |
| NMFC v West Coast Analysis | 2nd Mar | |
| The Notebook, Pre-Season | 3rd Mar | 4th Mar |
| Team Tiers, Version 1 | 5th Mar | 6th Mar |
*Plus an extra North Melbourne post in the week of Round 1*
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Looking at last year’s numbers to illustrate how these can be twisted to suit whichever narrative you’d like:
– Gold Coast: 1st in continuity, 13th on the ladder (mulligan potential given Hardwick’s first year)
– Adelaide: 2nd in continuity, 15th on the ladder
– Brisbane: 3rd in continuity, premiers
And going back another year to 2023’s numbers…
– Sydney: 1st in continuity, 8th on the ladder
– Essendon: 2nd in continuity, 11th on the ladder
– Collingwood: 3rd in continuity, premiers
Wait a minute. 3rd in continuity = premiers. Which means this year’s premiers are … Fremantle?
In all seriousness though, those inclined can look back at the three previous rankings by clicking on 2024, 2023, and 2022.
Keep those listed players in mind when watching your team play in the early stages of the year. Some absences will be obvious and immediately felt. Others might take a while to manifest.