Wind tunnels and unconverted chances: Pre-Season, 2025 v West Coast

There was plenty in North Melbourne’s final pre-season game to suit whichever narrative you’d like to pursue.

Positives in terms of generating scoring shots. Negatives in terms of not actually finishing those opportunities.

Positives in terms of being the better side in general play. Negatives in terms of allowing West Coast to hit the scoreboard from limited opportunities.

Positives in terms of playing with a couple of different modes at various times in the game. Negatives in terms of allowing West Coast’s main mode to catch parts of the team defence out at times.

It could go round and round for hours. Instead let’s whip around and touch on a few different points.

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The Patreon is up and running once again for 2025, which you can find right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.

In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice.

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Generating shots v converting shots

24 scoring shots, plus a few more shots that didn’t trouble the scorers, is a promising return from 43 inside 50s.

Only kicking 9.15 from all those shots? Slightly less promising. However, Saturday was one of those days where a shot chart can’t tell the full story. Wind meant teams both attacked and defended different areas to normal.

When kicking with the wind, shots on the right-hand side of the forward line – outer side for those watching on TV – were easier than normal in theory, because the wind would do the work and drag the ball back.

While the execution was undoubtedly off, generating scoring shots is an important step in the process – as long as that process doesn’t lead to wild, low-percentage attempts. No one watching on Saturday would have come away from it thinking North were firing wildly.

It’s an imperfect comparison to finish this point on, but nevertheless: last year North only managed 24+ scoring shots in one game.  

Switching modes

In the second quarter – West Coast’s first use of the wind and North’s first attempt playing against it – the Eagles kicked five goals in the first 13 minutes.

From there, the home side didn’t score again for the term. It was largely because of North’s ability to switch mode and use possession to defend first while conditions were against them.

The possession tally in the second quarter was 114-67 North’s way, and the mark tally would have been similarly lopsided. I can’t actually find the mark tally for the quarter anywhere, so we’ll gloss over the exact count and agree on what we all saw with our eyes.

Nevertheless, the overall point is North had a plan for how to nullify both their disadvantage – playing against the wind – and West Coast’s advantage; one of the few times the home side was on top in general play for the day.

It effectively neutralised play for the rest of the term. Given North were against a strong wind, it was a significant win in the bigger picture of the match. Whether they continue to use this method as a way to shut play down when momentum is against them, only time will tell.

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For those who missed the start of season announcement, you can find it here. And the schedule between now and the start of the season is…

Post	Patreon access	Public access
General 2025 announcement	Live	Live
Over/under win total	Live	Live
Look Ahead, Part 1	Live	Live
Look Ahead, Part 2	Live	Live
Look Ahead, Part 3	Live	Live
NMFC Match Sim Analysis	Live
The Notebook, Match Sim	Live	Live
Continuity Rankings	Live	Live
NMFC v West Coast Analysis	Live
The Notebook, Pre-Season	3rd Mar	4th Mar
Team Tiers, Version 1	5th Mar	6th Mar

*Plus an extra North Melbourne post in the week of Round 1*

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Evaluating some of the goals conceded

There’s probably no one size fits all approach to this, but it’s important – especially in pre-season – to look at process before results. To that end, West Coast’s five second half goals came from…

• A Tristan Xerri misjudge against the wind allowing Matt Flynn a clean run to mark
• A bad Nick Larkey turnover starting the play
• A bad Charlie Comben turnover inside defensive 50
• An incredibly good Jayden Hunt goal from the boundary
• A good Liam Baker goal from 60 following a free kick (which was there) after Caleb Daniel’s long kick out

It wasn’t a day where the defenders were miles off their game and at sixes and sevens for most of it. To be clear, it’s not supposed to absolve the defensive unit of everything; no-one on Saturday was flawless apart from maybe Harry Sheezel.

But there is – and will be – a time and place to go in depth and demand better work without the ball from those whose job it is to do so. Saturday’s game was not it.

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The Create Your Own Depth Chart feature is now part of the List Management suite, all on the $5 tier for Patreon subscribers:

You can subscribe to the Patreon for 2025 right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.

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Finn O’Sullivan

In a vacuum, this is a well-executed, albeit fairly standard play. O’Sullivan, from his wing, swings around on the defensive side to provide an option, hits a target (this part is an understatement), runs a good lane to continue threatening, doubles up at ground level to find a teammate, who then continues the chain.

Then the extra context is added – how O’Sullivan is yet to make his AFL debut while seamlessly fitting in – and the above clip gets much more impressive.

The wing is a tough role to play well, as regular readers will know from the way I’ve droned on and on about it over the years. For O’Sullivan to pick up key parts of it immediately is a superb sign.

However, for all the above, arguably the most intriguing part of his game on Saturday was his switch to half back after half time. He looked just as comfortable behind the ball as he did around it.

In the bigger picture, it’s the second week in a row where Darcy Tucker’s spot at half back has been minimised the longer the game has gone.

Whether it’s an indication Tucker is right on the fringe or it’s merely a case of adding more depth into the rotations, only time will tell.

In the meantime, O’Sullivan will quickly become one of the first players picked if he continues on this trajectory.

The benefit – and wildcard – for down the track

Acclimatising to Hands Oval before playing there for premiership points can only help. On first viewing from a distance it looked like a slick surface, perhaps even a better one than Optus Stadium. Although given the regular stream of complaints to pop up year after year, that might not be the grandest achievement in the world.

The wildcard, as mentioned on commentary, is ground capacity increasing from approximately 8,000 to somewhere around 13,000 through temporary stands and the like. How they’re built, where they’re placed, and how high they go will impact overhead conditions in some way, shape, or form.

It might mean a slightly different atmosphere; it could mean certain sections are more shielded from the elements than others – think Ninja Stadium on the outer side near the hill as a comparison. However it looks, if there is wind again in June it’ll likely have a different impact to Saturday.

And one more thing to finish on…

Harry Sheezel’s lofted through ball

Look at that. Honestly.