Firstly, an apology for no Notebook last week due to Greek Easter shenanigans. It turns out when there’s preparations to eat a lot, followed by eating a lot, it doesn’t leave much time to actually watch football.
But after spending a week catching up, we’re back in the swing of things with a bumper three-topic Notebook. This week’s topics:
1) Port Adelaide’s blistering ball movement exposing soft spots in Geelong’s setup
2) How Essendon’s improvement lies in raising their floor
3) The start of a running list highlighting my favourite – not necessarily the best, but the ones I’ve enjoyed most – games of 2024
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Port Adelaide exploiting the space
A fortnight ago, there was a Notebook entry explaining how Geelong invest in the dangerous space on a field.
It stands to reason the way to beat the Cats in regulation conditions is move the ball around or over that space they invest in, and reap the rewards.
In a blistering first quarter and a half it’s exactly what Port Adelaide did, which almost makes this entry a counter to two weeks ago.
Simple in theory, harder in practice – move it where Geelong’s defenders and midfielders aren’t. By and large there are two ways to do it:
1) Slow but steady, minimising risk and moving patiently
2) Turbo button pressed, full steam ahead
For Port, it was option two, and with a second turbo button pressed for good measure. It didn’t always have to be clean, or even precise, but sometimes speed and a little bit of luck is more important.
In this first clip, ignore the lucky bounce and look at where Jason Horne-Francis is running – he peels off from his opponent to width. It’s risky, because if it doesn’t come off it’s a simple Geelong counter. But the process is established straight away.
A couple of minutes later, the ball is in dispute on the wing. As the kick is scrubbed, watch Willie Rioli make a conscious decision to back away from the contest and hang back goal side. Again, it’s risky. Again, it’s part of the process. Todd Marshall knows if he gets it away from the surrounding Cats he’s got a great option forward of the ball.
The third clip is a combination of the first two. Marshall is involved again in helping clear away from a contest, along with the Power half backs providing width, as is the Horne-Francis lead.
Every defence is going to give you something; it’s impossible to cover every space at once. Port elected to take the little moments from Geelong, but move with such impetus those little spaces became big ones.
The fourth and final clip, which actually doesn’t result in a score, is probably my favourite of the lot. Sometimes after centre bounces, Geelong like to reshuffle and drop Rhys Stanley behind the ball as an extra defender while Mark Blicavs takes over ruck duties.
It means for a moment in open play the opposition has a moment with a numerical advantage around the ball. Port take advantage of this through Ollie Wines and Jackson Mead – the former staying goal side of his direct opponent, the latter the temporary extra – to counter at speed.
The hacked kick by Brandon Zerk-Thatcher has a lucky result – it could have gone anywhere instead of falling into Wines’ lap – but from there the process is clear.
There’s a recognition Mead is the extra player, and Port’s forwards have come right up the ground in a narrow formation. It leaves space to pull the kick ever so slightly on a different angle.
It gives Marshall just enough room for a fantastic pick up, and because Port’s forwards have taken Geelong’s defenders high up the ground, it – to use the same phrase again – leaves space over the back for Jed McEntee to run into.
It’s largely superb recovery work from Sam De Koning and particularly Max Holmes – plus maybe a 7/10 kick from Marshall when a 10/10 was needed – that prevented another Power goal.
Everything above coalesced into an incredible quarter and a half of high-octane football, a combination of preparation, luck, and skill allowing Port to race to a 49-point lead. Which they needed nearly every single bit of to escape with a win after Geelong’s personnel and structural changes in the second half.
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For those who missed the introduction of a new feature, throughout the season I’ll be updating this for every team, every fortnight:
Apart from a picture here, a tweet there, or a Notebook entry from time to time, this feature is exclusive for Patreon subscribers on the $10 tier.
To find out more details and sign up, head here for the Patreon page.
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Essendon’s floor and their ceiling
(This is part one of a look at Essendon’s season so far, today’s entry with more of a personnel and numbers focus. Part two will come in a fortnight after the Dreamtime game and be more vision focused)
The concept of a team’s floor and their ceiling is a topic* I bang on about frequently. Probably a little too much, truth be told, but in Essendon’s start to 2024 we have an ideal representation of why.
(*For those who haven’t heard of it, it’s simple – the ceiling is a realistic best-case scenario for a team while the floor is a realistic worst-case scenario)
In the wake of a 6-2-1 record – which should by all rights be 8-2-1 in a fortnight – there’s been the annual, sometimes even biannual discussion of whether Essendon are ‘legit’. It’s then followed by the normal carry on, because when any big club plays well outlets are contractually obligated to use it to fill as many column inches as possible.
Let’s put that part of the discussion to one side for now, because it’s missing the forest for the trees. The key for Essendon so far this year is their floor is the highest it’s been in years, and years, and years.
Essendon have always been capable of producing great flashes of football – I’d argue their best moments last year were higher standard than their best so far in 2024. If anything their ceiling this year is perhaps a little lower than last year for reasons that’ll become apparent here.
But the floor is significantly higher and that’s what has produced a couple of wins this season. There’s no way to prove it properly but I’d bet a hypothetical house (not my real one just in case banks are reading) there’d have been no chance of winning the St Kilda or GWS games last year, grinding back into the game after looking not even second best, but third or fourth best early on. I could be convinced to throw the Adelaide game in a similar basket given the intense late pressure.
It’s all because of their defence, both around the ball and behind it. Starting around the ball, the midfield changes have been gradual but effective. Going back to this piece I wrote at the end of 2022, a couple of key passages, slightly edited here for clarity:
Zach Merrett, Dylan Shiel and Darcy Parish are at their best hunting the ball. When playing elsewhere their value is minimised, so you have to play them on-ball for maximum return. Look around the league and it’s impossible to find another team playing with three offensive minded midfielders in the same rotation.
When it works, Essendon look like a million dollars – actually leading the league in points per stoppage win. When it goes wrong, it looks sub-standard, conceding the third most points per stoppage loss…
…it’s the most pressing issue to fix. To do so, one of two things needs to happen:
1. If Merrett, Parish and Shiel continue as the main midfielders, one of them has to adopt a different mentality
2. One of the trio has to move out of the first-string rotations
Both options have happened. Merrett has taken his game without the ball to a different level, Shiel has dropped out of the best 22 – first to injury and now without a way back in unless there are injuries elsewhere – and as a result it allows more room for Parish’s ball winning ways, with even that being deemphasised against certain matchups.
Combine Merrett’s improvement with Sam Durham’s on-ball emergence, consistent Archie Perkins minutes, Contract Year Jake Stringer when required, along with Todd Goldstein doing the same Todd Goldstein things he’s already done for 15 years but suddenly getting wider plaudits, it makes for a different midfield.
Maybe if Will Setterfield didn’t have the dreaded never-ending ‘two-week’ injury* that has followed Brad Scott to Essendon, we could see if/how he fits into this mix as well.
(*North fans will nod knowingly at this. Most others won’t have a clue what it means)
Over the last five weeks Essendon have conceded the fifth fewest points per clearance lost. Which is great for most teams regardless of context but considering how the Bombers have defended in recent memory, this improvement is worth screaming from the rooftops.
Combine it with an edge at raw clearance totals and it allows Essendon to both establish field position more often than not, while the stoppage losses aren’t as damaging as they used to be.
Then when the opposition do get possession in their defensive 50, Essendon are stopping transition much more effectively. Over the same five-week period, the Bombers are a touch better than league average at stopping opponents turning rebound 50s into inside 50s of their own.
Last year Essendon were 15th in that metric. In 2022 it was 17th. In 2021 it was 18th. Just a little bit of a difference. It’s allowed the Bombers to rank fourth for time in forward half in the last five games.
Different midfield personnel + individual improvement + defensive reinforcements + an experienced core of players = a solid base to consistently put in work without the ball every week.
The remaining issue is Essendon aren’t actually scoring all that well – ranking 14th for scoring shots per inside 50 – which gets to the ceiling aspect of this discussion. The defensive improvements have come at the cost of offensive firepower, at least in the short term anyway, which is understandable.
But the important part is there’s now a foundation to build from, as opposed to the previous houses on sand. It allows Essendon to stay in games more often instead of falling away easily in the face of pressure.
Barring something unexpected in the next fortnight, the video explainer of that defensive foundation will come in the Notebook after Dreamtime.
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For those who have missed previous Notebook entries, here are links to the last five editions:
Geelong’s investments and St Kilda’s direction: FTN, R7
Collingwood’s swarm, valued veterans, Expected Score: FTN, R6
Goldstein v English, Fremantle’s ceiling: FTN, R5
A change for Naughton, Adelaide’s system issues: FTN, R4
Converting from clearances, shifting a defence: FTN, R3
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A running tally of my favourite 10 games this season
The brilliant Adelaide-Brisbane clash on Sunday evening got me thinking how we’ve had a string of quality games through the first third of 2024 – and what would top the list?
After mulling it over, I’ve come up with my favourite 10 games so far. This is purely a list based on my enjoyment, so not some magical quantifiable marker of quality:
1. Essendon v Collingwood: Round 7
2. Adelaide v Brisbane: Round 9
3. Richmond v Sydney: Round 3
4. Port Adelaide v Melbourne: Round 3
5. Carlton v Adelaide: Round 5
6. Geelong v Port Adelaide: Round 9
7. Brisbane v Carlton: Round 0
8. Carlton v GWS: Round 6
9. Geelong v Carlton: Round 7
10. Western Bulldogs v Geelong: Round 4
Honourable mention: When North Melbourne led Fremantle by five goals in the second quarter of Round 2. This is kind of a joke, but also not really a joke. It was a fun 45 minutes.
For only nine rounds of football, that’s a really good list! The goal is to keep updating this as required as footnotes in the Notebook; hopefully regularly.