Goldstein v English, Fremantle’s ceiling: From The Notebook, Round 5 2024

In a two-entry Notebook this week, one follows the normal format of being backed up by either stats or video.

The second is a little different; more of a floating idea shared to see whether it’s close to the mark.

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Todd Goldstein v Tim English

Last year in Round 14, Todd Goldstein played Tim English and was clearly the better ruckman for the first quarter and a half. Playing as he always had in the ruck for the better part of the last 15 years, Goldstein was ahead of English in a straight duel.

Then the longer the match went, the more English took advantage of his relative youth and superior physical traits to wear down the soon-to-be 35-year-old Goldstein, playing heavy minutes as sole ruck for the 13^th consecutive week.

Which made the duel last Friday night, Goldstein now in the red and black, so fascinating. Once again Goldstein jumped out of the gates, but using a different method to 2023.

It was all about taking away English’s space, both at ruck contests and around the ground, neutralising his athleticism advantage. When Goldstein was able to do that, good things happened…

And when Goldstein was just a fraction late getting across, English was able to flip the tables and take advantage:

Along with a greater focus on taking away English’s space rather than beating him at his own game, the extra key difference from 2023 was how Essendon’s two-ruck setup allowed Goldstein the luxury of staying strong throughout the night, forcing Tim English into one of his quietest games in recent memory.

From the Bulldogs’ perspective, the query is whether the greater freedom allowed to ruckmen this year is neutralising some of English’s biggest strengths. It isn’t the first times sides have played English this way in 2024, and it won’t be the last.

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Trying to figure out Fremantle’s ceiling

Disclaimer: Normally I have a personal rule any Notebook entry has to be a fully formed theory backed up with proof – whether visually or statistically – and not just a string of musings based on vibes. Today I’m breaking the rule because there’s a half-formed idea bouncing around in my head I need to share to see how close it is to the mark. Or maybe it’s completely off the mark, which is okay too.

After some slight slippage in 2023, the defensive side of Fremantle’s game is back to where it was in 2022. Fourth best for points conceded per stoppage lost, third best for points conceded per turnover, fourth best for scoring shots per inside 50 conceded. The profile for that side of the game is imposing, except for one part we’ll get to shortly.

In the meantime, the area that has me thinking – and it’s not a unique issue when it comes to recent years – is whether their lack of creativity in possession puts a hard ceiling on what this group can achieve.

Take the Carlton game for example. For three and a half quarters it flowed entirely at Fremantle’s tempo and how they wanted the afternoon to play out. If any other side – and this is where the ‘vibes and musings’ part comes in – apart from the current bottom three enjoyed that period of control, surely the game would have been out of sight well before the controversial ending.

The control Fremantle have defensively in their back half looks like it’s coming at the cost of creativity in possession. Only one side is worse at transitioning from defensive 50 to forward 50 (Gold Coast), and that side has a strong forward half pressure game. Only one side has generated fewer total inside 50s (North Melbourne), and that side has … it’s North Melbourne.

The defensive unit is strong and should only get stronger when Heath Chapman returns, presumably in place of Ethan Hughes (assuming pre-season wing time won’t immediately translate to AFL games). The midfield has arguably won every head-to-head battle this season. But again, most other sides with those two lines purring would translate it to a regular forward half game. Currently Fremantle rank 12^th for time in forward half. The ball – by design, it appears – doesn’t move off the back of those defensive and midfield advantages.

When it is time for the forward group, the unit has Jye Amiss who’s progressing well, Josh Treacy who’s taken a big step forward, then past-prime versions of Matthew Taberner (until Darcy’s return forces a reshuffle) and Michael Walters (which is intended as a statement of fact rather than a cheap shot), Michael Frederick when fit, Bailey Banfield as a bits and pieces operator, then Sam Switkowski and Tom Emmett who both buzz around looking to apply pressure that doesn’t influence as often as it should.

Because the one part of the defensive profile which isn’t imposing is how easily sides take it out of their own back 50 and turn it into an inside 50 of their own. Only three sides are worse at conceding in that area: Essendon, North Melbourne, and West Coast. Then the likes of Alex Pearce and Luke Ryan save the day because that’s what they do.

This – forward half pressure – is the one area of the defensive game that translates most to repeat scoring opportunities because of how a team regains possession close to goal. It can almost be viewed as a part of a team’s offensive arsenal. Perhaps it’s due to personnel, perhaps it’s due to instruction – likely an even mix of both – but currently much of Fremantle’s overall defensive dominance can’t be capitalised on because its focus directly diminishes offensive capabilities.

Wrestling fans will understand this analogy and I’ll immediately lose everyone else reading, but there’s usually a big, bad guy in the middle of the card the good guy has to overcome in a very specific way.

That’s the vibe Fremantle give at the moment, except for the whole ‘being a bad guy’ part. I enjoy watching them. But it’s a very defined style which doesn’t look like it will change and doesn’t provide much margin for error, making it easier for the opposition to stay within touching distance and escape with wins they arguably don’t deserve on the balance of general play.

Maybe it’s just a matter of time and developing extra gears to make this section look dated in a couple of months. Or maybe it’s perfectly okay to have a season floating around mid-table playing this way knowing there’s plenty of draft capital available in the off-season to help take the next step.