From The Notebook: 2024 Pre-Season

The countdown is on until the real games begin, but before that it’s a chance to take stock of what was learned from the round of pre-season matches.

With a match sim and full match in the books, there was enough on display to pique your curiosity. Then there’s the accompanying query of how much will hold once premiership points are up for grabs…

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Collingwood … kicking and marking?

This approach against Richmond was so out of the blue it’s tricky to figure out what to make of it.

The Pies had 259 kicks and just 119 handballs; a kick to handball ratio of 2.18. For context and comparison:

– This would have ranked first in the league in 2023 – by a distance – if maintained for a full year
– Last year Collingwood’s own kick to handball ratio was 1.42, roughly mid table
– In 2023 they only had one game where they went over 1.81: the Qualifying Final v Melbourne
– Given they were stuck in the back half for (approximately) 95 percent of the last three quarters in that game, it was hardly a harbinger of things to come

There were clearly some differences in Collingwood’s offensive patterns as a result. The million-dollar question is how much of this carries over to their season opener against GWS, or whether it was just a mix of conditions and how Richmond opted to defend.

Football 101: Wing play at around the ground stoppages

A semi-regular feature of the Notebook this year will be what I’ve imaginatively titled ‘Football 101’.

It’s reserved for passages of play which aren’t game changing or ‘look at this!’ moments, but instead highlight what players in certain positions should be doing at certain times.

This week’s entry comes from Carlton v Melbourne, with a focus on wing play at around the ground stoppages. Because if there’s something I pay too much attention to, it’s wingers.

Enjoy:

Tweaking the over/under win predictions

A couple of weeks ago, there was some fun had predicting every team’s over/under win total.

At the end of pre-season, it feels only right to revisit and tweak based on what’s been presented to us in the match sim and full match.

Without any further ado…

Team	Line	Over or Under	Level of confidence
Adelaide	12.5	Over	Some (Prev: Lots)
Brisbane	15.5	Over	Lots
Carlton	13.5	Under	Some (Prev: None)
Collingwood	15.5	Over	Some
Essendon	11.5	Over	None
Fremantle	9.5	Under (Prev: Over)	Some (Prev: None)
Geelong	11.5	Under	Some
Gold Coast	11.5	Under (Prev: Over)	Some (Prev: None)
GWS	14.5	Over	Lock
Hawthorn	8.5	Under	Lots
Melbourne	14.5	Under	None (Prev: Some)
North Melbourne	5.5	Under	None (Prev: Some)
Port Adelaide	13.5	Over	Lots
Richmond	9.5	Under	Some (Prev: None)
St Kilda	11.5	Over	Some (Prev: None)
Sydney	12.5	Over	Lock
West Coast	4.5	Under	Lots (Prev: Some)
Western Bulldogs	11.5	Over	Some

Summary of changes

Adelaide’s level of confidence: Lots > Some

This is purely based on the Thilthorpe injury.

Carlton’s level of confidence: None > Some

Based on the available evidence, a combination of early season injuries and a relatively similar game style off turnover has me slightly more confident in this pick.

Fremantle’s pick: Over > Under
Fremantle’s level of confidence: None > Some

Although the personnel shifted between match sims and pre-season match, the ever-present question about ball use was still there … and not answered yet.

Gold Coast’s pick: Over > Under
Gold Coast’s level of confidence: None > Some

This one’s pretty simple for me – I thought the Suns would be a little further along the path than they’ve shown so far. Not panic stations at all, just scaling down expectations slightly.

Melbourne’s level of confidence: Some > None

I want to believe – really want to believe – the renewed approach to ball use that we’ve seen over the last fortnight. Clayton Oliver’s Opening Round return helps as well. Just hard to definitively go over until it all comes together in action.

North Melbourne’s level of confidence: Some > None

The process is solid so far, and it only takes a couple of upsets to be on path for the over.

Richmond’s level of confidence: None > Some

The goals are going to be a problem if Tom Lynch doesn’t play 18+ games. A large problem.

St Kilda’s level of confidence: None > Some

The gap between St Kilda’s floor and ceiling may be the smallest in the league. In a competition as tight as this that’s worth a couple of extra wins a season.

West Coast’s level of confidence: Some > Lots

The injuries have come again and it’s a long way back.