Predicting every team’s over/under 2024 win total

It’s time to have some fun and decide over or under for every team’s win total in 2024.

For this year’s edition, polls have been added so everyone can join in to make their calls as well. Depending on how the next fortnight goes, I may change my prediction for some teams before their first game. If that happens it’ll be clearly marked with an accompanying reason.

Every team’s pick is sorted into four levels of confidence: none, some, lots, and lock. It’s extremely scientific.

Last year’s result was an even 9-9, with a breakdown coming right after this plug for The Shinboner Patreon…

—–

There are three tiers available in 2024:

$2.50 – Debutant – To show support for the site without receiving any extra features
$5 – Rising Star – The first level where there are extra features and early access for certain things
$10 – Brownlow – First access to everything and anything set up for Patrons

To find out more details and sign up, head here for the Patreon page.

—–

Success: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Gold Coast, GWS, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast
Failure: Collingwood (by lots), Essendon (by one win), Fremantle (by three wins), Geelong (by lots), Hawthorn (by one win), Port Adelaide (by lots), St Kilda (by two wins), Sydney (by two wins), Western Bulldogs (by one win)

Funnily enough, if I was presented with the same situation and information for each of those nine misses with the only difference being a year wiser, I’d make the same call for seven of them. Only Collingwood (missed the midfield reshuffle) and Geelong (underplayed the importance of post-flag changes and decline) would change; I’m still happy with the process for the remaining seven.

And now, let’s get into the fun stuff.

Lines from Sportsbet as of Sunday 18 February (AM)
Note: For those filling out the polls on phone, the votes still get through despite the WordPress message that pops up after hitting vote

Adelaide: 12.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 11-12
Level of confidence: Lots
The Look Ahead

A list primed for significant improvement from key players and an overall style which took an enormous step forward in 2023. It’s currently as close to a lock as possible without being one.

Brisbane: 15.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 17-6
Level of confidence: Lots
The Look Ahead

At a minimum nine wins can surely be banked from Brisbane’s 11 Gabba games. It only leaves seven needed from the last 12 to go over this line.

The only reason it’s not a lock is because 16 wins doesn’t leave a huge margin of error for injuries and other unexpected happenings.

Carlton: 13.5

Prediction: Under
Last Year: 13-1-9
Level of confidence: None
The Look Ahead

The match simulation and practice match could change this drastically but as it stands, my reasoning is this:

Surely Carlton can’t be nearly three times as good as anyone else with their stoppage points differential for a whole season (as referenced in their Look Ahead), and if it drops down to merely ‘good’, they haven’t demonstrated enough of a potent turnover game to reach 14+ wins.

Collingwood: 15.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 18-5
Level of confidence: Some
The Look Ahead

Maybe this is the year Collingwood actually lose a couple of close games? No? Okay then.

In all seriousness, as detailed in their Look Ahead, the only reason this isn’t picked with a higher level of confidence is because there appear to be a couple of slight changes coming to personnel and style, and it may take a second to figure it all out.

Essendon: 11.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 11-12
Level of confidence: None
The Look Ahead

This feels like a perfect line for Essendon. Some weeks it’ll feel low, others it’ll feel high.

Ultimately it’s all about the Bombers’ process and progression with game style that determines whether it’s a successful year. That can be done with 13 wins, and it can also be done with 10.

Fremantle: 9.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 10-13
Level of confidence: None
The Look Ahead

Flip a coin, part one. I might change my opinion on this 20 times between now and their first game.

Geelong: 11.5

Prediction: Under
Last Year: 10-1-12
Level of confidence: Some
The Look Ahead

Another year into core legs means more reliance on the next generation to carry the load (it’s tired, I know, but it’s the truth).

Nine games at home includes North Melbourne, Hawthorn, and West Coast, but also Port Adelaide, GWS, and Adelaide.

Last year the Cats were 6-3 at home but only 4-1-9 everywhere else. Two wins improvement overall is asking for a lot – unless the next generation collectively takes a step and makes a mockery of the line.

Gold Coast: 11.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 9-14
Level of confidence: None
The Look Ahead

Flip a coin, part two. I might change my opinion on this 50 times between now and their first game.

GWS: 14.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 13-10
Level of confidence: Lock
The Look Ahead

The contrast in picks between the two surging preliminary finalists of 2023 – GWS and Carlton – come down to one thing: process.

The Giants’ surge was – in my opinion anyway – underpinned by a solid, repeatable process that I trust can be replicated in 2024 from the outset. And that’s why they’re a lock to go over for me.

Hawthorn: 8.5

Prediction: Under
Last Year: 7-16
Level of confidence: Lots
The Look Ahead

Going against Sam Mitchell is always fraught with danger; he’s been one of the best coaches in the league since the minute he took the Hawthorn job.

The James Blanck injury, arguably one of the players they could least afford to lose, exposes a thin key defensive crop, and forces others into roles that minimise some of their strengths.

Melbourne: 14.5

Prediction: Under
Last Year: 16-7
Level of confidence: Some
The Look Ahead

This is all based on the forward line, or lack thereof. To echo words from The Look Ahead, if it’s fixed then 14.5 will prove too low. Until then I’m going with under, just.

North Melbourne: 5.5

Prediction: Under
Last Year: 3-20
Level of confidence: Some
The Look Ahead

There’ll be a couple games where everything clicks through the midfield and 5.5 looks like a mockery of a line.

Nevertheless, with all the holes that need fixing at either end of the ground, under feels like the relatively safe choice.

Port Adelaide: 13.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 17-6
Level of confidence: Lock
The Look Ahead

Finding ways the Power can be four games worse than 2023, with key players still getting better – and a process that’s proven in the regular season – is really tough.

Sure, finals are a question mark. But finals don’t count here.

Richmond: 9.5

Prediction: Under
Last Year: 10-1-12
Level of confidence: None
The Look Ahead

This pick was made before Richmond’s match sim on Sunday morning and that game gave me little to convince either a change in pick or confidence level. There was positives and negatives; ultimately it’s an under that might change before game one.

St Kilda: 11.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 13-10
Level of confidence: None
The Look Ahead

Last year was probably a best-case scenario for players picking up the Ross Lyon process. In theory it should only be better in 2024 with a regulation injury list – the query comes with how high the ceiling is with the current playing crop.

Sydney: 12.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 12-1-10
Level of confidence: Lock
The Look Ahead

Even after everything that went wrong for Sydney last year, they still managed 12 wins. Now, with a better team on paper and recruitment designed to fix their main flaw, they only need one more win than 2023 to go over this mark.

West Coast: 4.5

Prediction: Under
Last Year: 3-20
Level of confidence: Some
The Look Ahead

4.5 is such a low line it only requires a month of hot football to knock it off.

But with Adam Simpson’s ‘starting from scratch’ words ringing in my ear, it looks like 2024 is a slow burn.

Western Bulldogs: 11.5

Prediction: Over
Last Year: 12-11
Level of confidence: Some
The Look Ahead

The Bulldogs could win 10 games or 15 and it probably wouldn’t be surprising either way. But I’m leaning over because of the very real stakes 2024 presents for this group of players and coaches.

An overall summary for easy access – and most importantly, mocking – at the end of the season:

Team	Line	Over or Under	Level of confidence
Adelaide	12.5	Over	Lots
Brisbane	15.5	Over	Lots
Carlton	13.5	Under	None
Collingwood	15.5	Over	Some
Essendon	11.5	Over	None
Fremantle	9.5	Over	None
Geelong	11.5	Under	Some
Gold Coast	11.5	Over	None
GWS	14.5	Over	Lock
Hawthorn	8.5	Under	Lots
Melbourne	14.5	Under	Some
North Melbourne	5.5	Under	Some
Port Adelaide	13.5	Over	Lock
Richmond	9.5	Under	None
St Kilda	11.5	Over	None
Sydney	12.5	Over	Lock
West Coast	4.5	Under	Some
Western Bulldogs	11.5	Over	Some

UPDATE: The tweaked – and final – predictions at the end of pre-season can be found here.