The Look Ahead: Melbourne in 2024

The Look Ahead will be the staple pre-season content piece, setting a tone for all 18 teams. The plan is to use them as a scene setter for team trends and individuals. In other words, don’t expect predictions, expect topics to be introduced – from both a list build and on-field perspective.

Few teams in recent memory profile like Melbourne heading into 2024. The strengths are obvious, weaknesses even more so, and then all the off-field drama is added into the mix.

Player contracts

The one player I’m fascinated to watch is Ed Langdon and whether clubs are interested in prying him loose.

High end role players for finals sides are worth their weight in gold, and Langdon is all that playing in a tricky role, week after week.

With little else to worry about contract wise in the 2024 crop though – for now at least – it shapes as a relatively straightforward year in this regard.

List demographics

It’s a typical setup for a list who believes they’re in the premiership window. There are plenty of players in their prime years, a smattering of veterans performing at a high level, the depth – what’s left of it after a gradual erosion anyway – proven AFL players, and quite a bit of untried youth.

Billings, Fullarton, and McAdam in for Grundy, Harmes, Hibberd, and Jordon is a net negative – not by a huge amount, but enough to be notable, and ramps up the workload on key players ever so slightly.

(Clayton Oliver’s situation is deliberately being ignored here as he works his way back to full health and fitness. That’s more important than a midfield depth chart.)

Create your own Melbourne Depth Chart

Changes in personnel

In:

From other teams: Jack Billings, Tom Fullarton, Shane McAdam
National Draft: Koltyn Tholstrup, Caleb Windsor
Rookie Draft: Kynan Brown
Other: Marty Hore

Out: Luke Dunstan, Brodie Grundy, James Harmes, Michael Hibberd, James Jordon, Deakyn Smith, Kye Turner

What changes will Melbourne make to their forward system?

For a while last year, it felt like I was writing about Melbourne’s forward line every fortnight, the ups and downs, and how it influenced every part of their game.

Heading into 2024, early signs aren’t promising. Harry Petty has barely trained as he continues recovering from his foot injury, Ben Brown’s troublesome knee has flared up again, Tom Fullarton suffered a serious hamstring injury, Shane McAdam has been eased through pre-season, and Tom McDonald has spent most of his time with the backs.

After all that though, if we can put it to one side for a moment it feels like the biggest move for Melbourne is to alter their system going forward.

At their worst last year, every forward entry was made with defence front of mind; ‘where can we put this to make it easier to defend if it comes back at us?’ The qualifying final v Collingwood was a prime example: 69 inside 50s that felt like 120 and never did they look like a constant threat to score. The Pies were comfortable defending (as much as you can be under that weight of numbers to be fair) because they weren’t forced into dangerous areas.

The way Melbourne possess the ball and defend in their forward half is always going to keep them in games because it’s so hard for opponents to score via turnover. But it also lessens their margin for error – they’re wasting territorial advantage because they’re risk averse.

There’s an avenue to take a few more risks with inside 50 entries, opening the ground up and deciding whether the chance of a handful of extra goals a game is worth the risk of conceding a couple more at the other end. It’s about how far Melbourne are willing to tip the risk-reward scale.

As long as they don’t have a horrific injury run, the top end of Melbourne’s list is too good to drop significantly down the ladder. But the team’s ceiling depends nearly entirely on whether they fix their issues going forward.

What is success for Melbourne in 2024?

After Melbourne’s last two Septembers, they fall in the category of ‘wait until finals’. If the forward conundrums are solved, they’re instantly premiership contenders. If not, they’ll likely be around the bottom reaches of the eight as teams around them improve and surpass.