The Look Ahead will be the staple pre-season content piece, setting a tone for all 18 teams. The plan is to use them as a scene setter for team trends and individuals. In other words, don’t expect predictions, expect topics to be introduced – from both a list build and on-field perspective.
After a promising 2023 led into an eventful off-season, Hawthorn are one of the most interesting teams to watch in 2024.
Player contracts
While there are plenty of names in the 2024 column, as you’d expect at this time of the year, the one who stands out for me is Denver Grainger-Barras.
In a team crying out for key position players to develop and take their chances, Grainger-Barras has been a slow burn. When a player is repeatedly thrown from end to end in an attempt to find form, it’s usually – not always, but usually – not a good sign of the faith coaches have in him.
This is a key season for him. Without significant progress it might turn out to be his last at Hawthorn.
List demographics
The thing that jumps out is how Hawthorn look to be only a couple years away from having a nicely balanced list by age.
The 25 to 27 crew are key contributors and if several of the 21 to 23 crew keep developing consistently, there should be a nice core to take on responsibility as the youngsters find out what AFL is all about.
That’s my optimistic approach anyway.
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Changes in personnel
In:
From other clubs: Massimo D’Ambrosio, Mabior Chol, Jack Ginnivan, Jack Gunston
National Draft: Calsher Dear, Will McCabe, Bodie Ryan, Nick Watson
Out: Lachie Bramble, Tyler Brockman, Fergus Greene, Emerson Jeka, Jacob Koschitzke, Ned Long, Max Lynch, Josh Morris, Fionn O’Hara, Brandon Ryan
What is the next step for their midfield?
Hawthorn’s midfield was a surprise packet of 2024. Tipped to struggle by many (including me!), it instead emerged as a relatively reliable unit from week to week.
However, part of that was down to the continuity and comparatively low rotations. Between Jai Newcombe, Conor Nash, James Worpel, and Will Day, there were only three games missed – two by Day in Round 5 and 6, and one by Newcombe in Round 23.
The quartet soaked up nearly all available midfield minutes, with anyone else only receiving spot minutes at best. Looking forward, it’s not the normal recipe for teams with designs on being competitive every week.
It’s not earth-shattering news to suggest something in those midfield rotations will change to allow players like Josh Ward, Cam Mackenzie, and possibly even pre-season standout Henry Hustwaite to gain valuable experience at the coalface.
Can Hawthorn manage that without taking a step back from an unexpected strength area in 2023? While they’ll obviously be okay with one step back for two steps forward if needed, how long will it take to find the optimal combination to go forward with?
How long will it take for the forward line to click?
As detailed in the 2024 Continuity Rankings, most of Hawthorn’s key minutes departures are from the forward line, with arrivals set to take their place.
On paper, it looks like quite a nice forward line. Mitch Lewis and Mabior Chol as the key talls, Jack Gunston floating around, Jack Ginnivan and Nick Watson as the smalls, and the sixth and seventh spots used for the high half forwards and midfield rotations.
It’s also nearly completely different from 2023. My personal theory has always been forwards need the most time of any line playing with each other to build success; the type of understanding that allows different leading patterns and talls and smalls to coexist without getting in each other’s way.
What is success for Hawthorn in 2024?
From a win-loss point of view, something around last year’s total will be acceptable to external pundits.
Over here, my definition of success is if James Blanck (or someone else, anyone really) emerges as a quality key defender worthy of taking the best forward every week. It’s the biggest hole on Hawthorn’s list by far.
Get that right and suddenly every area of the ground has key building blocks for the rest of the decade.
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