Time to dust off the cobwebs.
The well-intentioned plans of keeping up with the blog while on holiday fell by the wayside, predictably some may say. While every game was still watched closely on various stages of delay, it was a little too tricky to find the extra time and write in-depth.
This is all meant as a precursor to say it’s not as if this post comes in cold without an understanding of what happened from Fremantle in Round 13 to Port Adelaide in Round 17, and being in attendance for Collingwood in Round 18. Anything notable that happened was logged, every step of the way.
It means today’s post will be partly about the Melbourne game but also touch on themes over the previous six weeks. Mainly about the fine line between whether North Melbourne’s side is as balanced as it could be, looking to the future, and how the push and pull between those two goals are significantly influencing the floor and ceiling of the team.
Assessing a team’s floor v ceiling is, personally, a foundational piece of team analysis. It isn’t the case for everyone, which may mean some differing opinions from here on out as people read along.
For those who are unaware of the concept, it’s a relatively simple way of looking at things where the floor is a theoretical worst a team can play, while the ceiling is the best a team can play.
In an ideal world, the floor is very high – meaning a bad game is still a decent level – while the ceiling is so high up that hitting it means you’re at a height no other team can reach.
Naturally there are factors that influence a team’s floor and ceiling. For instance, a hypothetical team of solid 28-year-olds won’t be dramatically bad (i.e. the floor), but they won’t have the capability to play at a high level against quality teams (i.e. the ceiling).
Or at the other end of the hypothetical scale, a team of 21-year-old high draft picks would put together periods where they look unbelievable (ceiling) but their lack of maturity and development would also mean stages where they’re incapable of holding up (floor).
From a game style point of view, if a team decided to set up and play with damage limitation front of mind – as an example, think back a generation to the worst of the flooding tactics – they likely wouldn’t lose by heavy amounts. But winning consistently would be out of the question.
Naturally North isn’t at the stage where the floor is high and ceiling higher, which means they are more vulnerable to decisions made with their team selection and game style. Saturday at Marvel was a showcase of getting a bit too clever by half.
Normally in the pre-game warm up the defensive group totals seven, or sometimes eight. This time there were nine, which was a rare sight. Then there were only six forwards – four of them tall – equally rare.
The game began and there were a rotating cast of four wingers. One of those nine defenders – Hardeman or Goater – would sometimes rotate through one wing, with either Stephens or Scott on the other. Then occasionally both Stephens and Scott would be on the wing. Other times one of Stephens or Scott would start at half forward, or McKercher would start at half forward before getting close to the ball, at least when not starting on the ball. All this while there were three tall forwards on the ground at all times and the only genuine small – Spargo – often attempted to be a target instead of working off the patterns of his talls. Meanwhile at the other end of the ground, much of the back half ball use was same-same with a string of defenders who all like to use the ball in a similar fashion, allowing Melbourne to key in on patterns and gradually exert control through turnover.
That long, rambling paragraph you’ve just read was deliberately written as hard to read because it’s hard to follow in real time. And the players have to keep all of it in mind; who goes where, what is required, in a constantly changing landscape, all while required to execute their roles in a flash.
All of this complicates player roles. If the roles are complicated, then their best possible game in the circumstance – aka their ceiling – dips, and the floor falls with it. Let’s run through a couple of key individual examples, followed by the wildcard to it all.
Colby McKercher: Regular readers will know my consistent belief that his best role is from a half-back starting point where the whole field is in front of him. There was minimal harm in looking to develop his forward-mid game, given the importance of that position. Nearly a season in, there are now enough data points to show it’s not where to get the most out of him.
Trying it made sense, but now McKercher has to return – permanently – to the back half and be given freedom to create. Currently the glimpses of run and carry we see with the ground in front of him is intercut with mind-numbing errors; errors that happen through a lack of clarity in role, in turn influencing confidence.
McKercher from half back offers something no other North defender does and is where his ceiling is the highest.
Cam Zurhaar: Similar to McKercher in the front half, it was worth an attempt to see if Zurhaar could become a useful mid-sized defender. Also similar to McKercher, we’re at the point* where we shouldn’t see it again for any length of time.
(*It was actually a few weeks ago for Zurhaar, but this is the first post since then, holidays, etc)
The defensive nous hasn’t grown with his time in the back half, and his offensive skill set isn’t unique enough to provide a point of difference to the other mid-sized defenders. It’s also now at the point he’s taking a spot from Hardeman and Goater, who should – continual fitness permitting – have their names in permanent ink on the back seven.
Zurhaar has to play forward if he’s in the team. But at that end we are currently seeing…
Matt Whitlock: More often than not, getting games into a young key forward who isn’t quite ready yet means some natural growing pains. Not everyone can be Cooper Trembath, kick three goals in each of his first four games and instantly become a valuable contributor.
By necessity though, those growing pains mean at times it feels like the team is playing with 17 on the field while Whitlock finds his way. When it’s added to three tall forwards already in the team, it has left Whitlock without a clear, defined role over the last fortnight apart from ‘go run around, try and mark a few, get some minutes in’.
The cluster of tall forwards also leaves less space for other keys and takes away the opportunity for more ground level presence to keep the ball locked in the forward half for longer. It’s a significant domino effect that stems from imbalanced team selection.
It’s the conundrum of development. Is it better served to force feed Whitlock a handful of AFL games now, or better to wait until he stands out at the lower level and earns a spot on his own merits? Every case is different because every player, personality, and skill set is different.
While it’s not as if these three players – McKercher, Zurhaar, Whitlock – hold the fate of North Melbourne in their hands, they’re listed to show how decisions in one area impact elsewhere.
When the forward line doesn’t work in tandem, the ability to regularly score from front half turnovers dips as opposition defences work things out during a game. Through the first half of 2026, North had hit the scoreboard from this area, even if they weren’t forcing a large quantity.
In theory, a balanced forward unit has multiple ways to punish turnovers, keeping defenders’ heads on a swivel. An unbalanced forward unit has fewer ways, allowing defenders more margin for error while zeroing in on how to cut down those remaining avenues to goal.
Unsurprisingly after the fast start, North had next to no joy from any forward half turnovers – a grand total of one point from nine turnovers through the middle two quarters, in large part because the forward line wasn’t functional.
Think back to the start of the year when North’s forward line looked more functional as a unit, opponent strength notwithstanding, and it featured a nice mix of talls, mediums, and smalls. It hasn’t been the case for some time.
At the other end of the field, the ball use coming out of defensive 50 directly resulted in five Melbourne goals going straight back over their head. The same-same nature of those with possession totals, plus a couple of simple mistakes, just couldn’t challenge Melbourne for long enough once the Demons worked things out.
A defensive group moving the ball in different ways keeps the entire field accessible. It’s not to say one time it has to be all handball, then the next time long kicks, followed by short kicks. Rather that a unit with different skill sets can play to their respective strengths, all inside a larger cohesive style. But again it’s been muddled from week to week whether through personnel or weekly instructions.
These should all be relatively simple fixes leading into next week against St Kilda, even if they’ll require a tough selection conversation or two. It should be easy enough to have Goater and Hardeman permanently in the back seven, alongside McKercher starting there and rolling up to the back of contests alongside opposing half forwards.
Zurhaar should return to his half forward slot in place of Whitlock who can return to the VFL and look to put his AFL lessons to good use. Then the two remaining forward line slots alongside the three talls, Curtis, and Spargo (even though Spargo needs to streamline his role), can effectively be filled in a shootout from the best smalls at VFL level.
On paper, St Kilda is the most winnable game North have left for the year. It should be an opportunity they line up for without compromising any development opportunities.
Fantastic to have you back, Ricky