Welcome to the sixth edition of The Shinboner’s Finals Dossiers. For new readers, the aim is to comprehensively profile each of the top four* teams, leaving you knowing the exact strengths and weaknesses of the sides as they head into September.
(*and then get annoyed when one of them goes out in straight sets, as has happened four of the previous five times I’ve completed this exercise)
The 2025 Finals Dossiers
Adelaide: 1st (18-5)
Geelong: 2nd (17-6)
Brisbane: 3rd (16-6-1)
Collingwood: 4th (16-7)
2025’s format has evolved again from previous years. Firstly we’ll start with a look at how the team has evolved from week to week this year, thanks to the Team Structures tool.
Then there’s something new; an attempt to provide a brief statistical overview of where a team excels and/or struggles.
Following that we’ll go in depth to explain how those areas of strength and/or weakness play out in action, with how a team beats you and how you beat them.
To finish up, it’s a look at ‘the intangible’ – a topic hard to measure for each team but important nonetheless, and a look at what to watch out for in potential matchups through the first couple of weeks in September.
Today, we look at the reigning premiers and a fascinating campaign to date. They’ve lifted when needed and also had bewildering performances against lower teams. But now, at the business end of the season, they have a well-earned double chance.
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Setting the scene
There’s always a query about how reigning premiers front up after the ultimate success. Both the 2022 (Geelong) and 2023 (Collingwood) premiers failed to make finals the following year.
Brisbane also had the issue of figuring out how to replace a retired Joe Daniher, while understanding there’d be a target on their back with 17 teams working to counter their preferred method.
The Daniher conundrum turned out to be mitigated, as much as realistically possible, by the blossoming of Logan Morris. Becoming a proper forward half target in Year 2 – comfortably the most targeted Lion inside 50 over the second half of the season – has allowed Eric Hipwood to keep doing his thing, and the third tall to provide ruck relief and a contested presence.
The ball use, if it was possible, has improved even further when on, consistently cutting opponents open with kicks no other teams are either instructed to take, or willing to take.
In amongst all of it, their year has alternated between performances both brilliant and baffling. While challengers have often been dispatched, lesser teams have found unpredicted success.
It’s made for a fascinating year, figuring out what’s real and what’s merely a byproduct of an experienced team knowing the key moments of a bigger picture.
Brisbane’s week-by-week evolution in 2025
The back story to this graphic: Best 22 format tells us next to nothing about how a team sets up. So I’ve spent every week this season (and last) going through every team, every game and placing player roles into something that ideally tells us a bit more about a team’s structure. Throughout the season these are exclusive to Patreon subscribers on the $10 Tier, but they’re brought out from under cover for Finals Dossiers each year.
It’s an interesting look at Brisbane’s week-by-week lineups. Although there’s a clear idea of their formation across lines and they’ve been settled in that respect, the constant has also been significant injuries to key personnel.
First it was Brandon Starcevich missing three months with concussion. Then in the same game he returned it was Jack Payne out for the year with a knee injury, followed by Noah Answerth a couple of weeks later with a torn Achilles.
Oscar McInerney has clearly been struggling all year with his body, Darcy Fort stepping up throughout the year to take on a larger burden in the ruck. And midfield, so long a set and forget unit – the first choice on-ball rotation collectively playing every game until Round 21 – was then hit with a Lachie Neale quad injury.
Eric Hipwood was the latest to go down with a multi-week calf injury, while Jarrod Berry will battle a shoulder issue the rest of the way. There’s a fair question to raise of how many injuries a team can withstand to key players at the wrong time of the year.
Brisbane’s statistical overview
This is a first attempt at summing up how a team plays based off a one-page graphic. Think of it like a tale of the tape, but instead a tale of a team’s style and preferences.
I’m also very open to manipulation and bullying on which stats should be removed or added for future versions. The more crowd sourcing, the better.
This doesn’t quite fit the normal profile of a team that’s finished top four. It also doesn’t quite fit the normal profile of a team that’s gone 9-4 against top-nine opposition.
What it does fit is the profile of a team who’s lifted to meet moments as they’ve arrived, rather than consistently playing at a high level.
It’s also instructive for how some areas are better to be looked at through differentials instead of totals. With Brisbane’s ability to slice through teams with uncontested ball, it naturally means they’ll play lower pressure game by the numbers. Hard to pressure a side when they have control most of the time.
If we look at total pressure factor, Brisbane slide all the way down to 10th and it looks sub optimal for a top four team. But as differential compared to their opponents each week, it’s impressive.
How Brisbane beat you
Not to dismiss Brisbane’s defence, their forward half turnover game which has improved significantly over the last couple of months, or their on-ball unit as a whole. But their point of difference is ball movement and especially kicking.
It’s a joy to watch when up and running, effortlessly switching through any gear from first to fifth, and even more not normally on the gearbox.
Much of it starts from Dayne Zorko and his ability to hit kicks that other players on other teams wouldn’t even think of looking at, let alone executing. For example, if this kick inboard isn’t directly to Darcy Wilmot, it’s as close to a guaranteed Hawthorn score as there is.
But because Zorko looks inboard to see the opportunity and then hit it, everything else opens up for Brisbane to quickly transition:
Even from his kick ins, Zorko is happy to take what would be low percentage options for nearly everyone else.
In this instance, he wastes no time looking for a back leading Zac Bailey. With minimal margin for error, most of the time it would end up as either a boundary throw in or direct turnover.
Instead Bailey doesn’t break stride to mark, Brisbane are out of a dangerous area and Hawthorn’s defence instantly has to shift back.
The third Zorko example we’ll use as our chance to shift into the flow on benefit of the way Brisbane look to move the ball.
There’s a high-risk, high-reward area Brisbane often look to hit just before they move inside 50. It’s the central corridor, roughly the width of the centre square and 60-80 metres from goal.
If we go all the way back to the Round 14, 2024 Notebook, the method is explained:
Hitting this area instantly puts the opposition defence on skates and gives Brisbane so many options. They can shift it wider before going inside 50, they can look for short lead up options, pump it long to minimise any chance of a quick rebound; the choices are plentiful.
Zorko is key to this because his ability to hit the kick provides the cue for teammates to get to the dangerous area. In the hands of nearly everyone else, it’s a lower percentage kick and a turnover in a spot where it’s easy to ping back to the other end.
But when he hits a leading Cam Rayner here, look at the Lions numbers surrounding it. It’s how to turn a high-risk, high reward play into low or medium risk but still high reward:
Then when the gears scroll down ever so slightly, Brisbane can still find the right balance to threaten the opposition.
Against Fremantle a fortnight ago, all the uncontested marks were able to shift the defence constantly until the moment appeared to pull the trigger.
The seven kicks in this passage weren’t anywhere near full speed, but the goal behind all of them was clear, and it paid off in the end:
The overarching theme is control with impetus. Only the very best sides can execute this way, given it’s the thinnest of lines between control with impetus compared to possession that doesn’t get you anywhere.
It allows Brisbane to cover for flaws elsewhere, knowing their ball movement can tend to neutralise slight opposition advantages in different facets, and even put pressure on those advantages.
Think of it this way: when you know the Lions will make the most of their possession, you have to do the same at the very least – or even more – from whatever your slight advantage may be. Otherwise it’s a steep hill to climb.
Opponents know Brisbane’s offensive movement shifts their defence into positions they don’t want to be, which in turn makes it harder to score from turnovers.
Ultimately, humming Brisbane ball movement isn’t a problem the league has come close to solving yet.
How you beat Brisbane
We can split this into two areas. First, and most obviously, is to stop Brisbane’s ball movement from clicking.
Everything we went through above – the way it shifts an opposition defence, along with how it compromises their offence if they win it back with teammates in unnatural positions – can’t be allowed to function at anywhere near the optimum.
Whether it’s by winning it at the source first (as Gold Coast and North Melbourne did in their encounters), or by allowing uncontested marks in less damaging areas (as Sydney and Collingwood did in their second encounters), methods can change but the main goal is obvious.
The second area, opponent-specific, is a little harder to measure. With other top four teams, their losses or vulnerable points have tended to follow relatively similar themes (or in Adelaide’s case, just not losing recently at all). Because Brisbane’s year has been topsy-turvy, defeats have seen different issues pop up:
– Round 6 v Collingwood: A flat team coming off a five-day break and a stirring comeback just couldn’t move as they’d wish
– Round 10 v Melbourne: From the point Brisbane reached a 20-point lead late in the third quarter, they couldn’t shift the game down a gear or two. It allowed Melbourne to move the ball as they pleased with 14 of the last 17 scoring shots
– Round 13 v Adelaide: A contested grind in tough conditions, Brisbane were the better side for the majority and should have won, but butchered chance after chance late
– Round 14 v GWS: Even allowing for the Giants’ inability to miss, they still kicked 11 of their 17 goals from the defensive half
– Round 20 v Gold Coast: Brisbane were slaughtered from stoppage, the Suns kicking 13 goals from the source
– Round 22 v Sydney: Perhaps this was an element of surprise, with the Swans playing in a fashion different to their preference for the year by keeping the game open and based off turnover. It was the second lowest stoppage game this year, dictated by the Swans who played at their preferred tempo on the day
There’s no repeated theme there. Depending on your viewpoint, that makes it either glass half full or glass half empty. Let’s work through it:
Glass half full
If the losses were a result of a similar issue, time and time again, it would suggest a critical flaw unable to be fixed. Once that happens it’s a slippery slope if a team looks to take from other areas to fix the issue. It then weakens other positions of strength, and suddenly it’s a leaky boat with holes popping up everywhere.
Glass half empty
In theory, vulnerability in multiple areas leaves top-tier opponents comfortable to play in their preferred style, holding less of a worry Brisbane will thwart it. This year’s losses have covered all ends of the spectrum, from contested to uncontested, open encounters to tight ones.
That should give opponents confidence their best is good enough to beat Brisbane if they also shut down the ball movement.
The Intangible: Brisbane raising their game for challenges
A consistent trend throughout Brisbane’s season has been raising their game when a challenge presents, while a little more susceptible to an upset.
Of the Lions’ seven gameswithout a win, three of them have been at home when they entered as either comfortable or heavy favourites…
– Round 10 v Melbourne, Round 14 v GWS, and Round 22 v Sydney
…their draw was again as a heavy favourite…
– Round 9 v North Melbourne in Hobart
…a further loss was a game they should have run away with in the last quarter…
– Round 13 v Adelaide after kicking behind after behind late
…and there were only two games where you could say Brisbane were properly outplayed:
– Round 6 v a Collingwood team at their peak
– Round 20 v Gold Coast
Conversely, some of Brisbane’s best performances this year have come when the challenge has been laid down:
– The myriad of comebacks early in the season
– Trailing at half time in four of their first five games
– Including a 32-point deficit against Geelong late in the second quarter of Round 3
– And a 39-point deficit against the Bulldogs early in the third quarter of Round 5
– The three road victories against…
– Geelong in Round 16 at GMHBA
– Collingwood in Round 21 at the MCG
– Fremantle in Round 23 at Optus
And of course, their win against Hawthorn in Round 24 with a top four spot on the line.
It’s a team shifting their level based on what’s in front of them. When what’s in front of them is the highest stakes in September, it stands to reason they’ll be ready to go if their availability level holds up.
The matchups
Week 1: Geelong
A key to Brisbane’s recent success against Geelong has been their ability to spread the Cats’ defence far and wide, narrow or deep, depending on what they want to achieve with ball use.
To spread a defence, there needs to be multiple viable targets ahead of the ball, both short and long if needed. It’s where Hipwood’s absence might prove crucial. Although his raw numbers were underwhelming in the last three wins against Geelong…
– Round 15, 2025: 7 disposals, 3 marks, 0.1
– Round 3, 2025: 8 disposals, 4 marks, 1.0
– Preliminary Final, 2024: 10 disposals, 5 marks, 1.0
…he’s someone a defence has to respect at all times. His movement forces defenders to react, which then opens space for teammates to move into, which in turn creates multiple options throughout a possession chain instead of static disposals to contests.
Hipwood won’t be there, and his replacement won’t be someone Geelong have to pay the same level of respect. In theory it should make Brisbane easier to defend against, creating a domino effect around the ground. Watch this space.
Week 2: Fremantle or Gold Coast
Just a couple of weeks ago, Brisbane cut Fremantle to pieces with mark, after mark, after mark. Handily there was even a Notebook entry about the way uncontested marks dictated flow.
Gold Coast would be the intriguing option if we do get a semi-final QClash. Traditionally Brisbane had owned the matchup, winning 12 of the last 13 by an average margin of 42 points leading into the most recent encounter.
And then, the Suns dismantled them. Comprehensively. So much so it felt like the typical mulligan every side gets at least one of per year.
Gold Coast kicked 13.6 from stoppages on the day. The 84-point total, unsurprisingly, was Brisbane’s worst for the year. It was also their worst under Chris Fagan, period.
Maybe, probably, it was just one of those days for Brisbane. But what if it wasn’t? What if Gold Coast found areas to exploit in their next meeting?