Welcome to the sixth edition of The Shinboner’s Finals Dossiers. For new readers, the aim is to comprehensively profile each of the top four* teams, leaving you knowing the exact strengths and weaknesses of the sides as they head into September.
(*and then get annoyed when one of them goes out in straight sets, as has happened four of the previous five times I’ve completed this exercise)
The 2025 Finals Dossiers
Adelaide: 1st (18-5)
Geelong: 2nd (17-6)
Brisbane: 3rd (16-6-1)
Collingwood: 4th (16-7)
This year’s format has evolved again from previous years. Firstly we’ll start with a look at how the team has evolved from week to week this year, thanks to the Team Structures tool.
Then there’s something new; an attempt to provide a brief statistical overview of where a team excels or struggles.
Following that we’ll go in depth to explain how areas of strength and weaknesses play out in action, with how a team beats you and how you beat them.
To finish up, it’s a look at ‘the intangible’ – a topic hard to measure for each team but important nonetheless, and a look at what to watch out for in potential matchups through the first two weeks in September.
Today, we look at an Adelaide team that put all the pieces together, jumping from eight and a half wins and 15th position in 2024 to 18 wins and minor premiers in 2025, before Izak Rankine’s suspension threatens to leave their foundation on shaky ground.
Normally these Finals Dossiers don’t have the semi-regular disclaimers that pop up elsewhere. Given Adelaide’s situation though, it warrants one that’s also half an apology. There’ll probably be a bunch of new(er) readers coming across this who aren’t familiar with what I try to do on the blog.
These Dossiers are traditionally supposed to be largely positive, informative, and ideally leave people with a well-rounded idea of a team’s strengths and weaknesses. It’s not supposed to have a constant undertone of ‘everything has changed because arguably their best player made a monumental error and still got off lightly for it’. But they’re the cards we’re dealt so we have to play on.
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Setting the scene
After Collingwood’s recent drop off, it left Adelaide as the premiership favourite and with good reason.
Their defensive group improved collectively at a rate of knots, the three key forwards caused havoc week-in, week-out, and the midfield group – finally – complemented each other in a way that suited modern trends and allowed heavy contest and scoreboard dominance.
Although there were still a couple of question marks we’ll cover as we go, the collective was extremely strong across all lines.
It all meant most of this piece had either already been written or there was a clear line on what to cover. Then Izak Rankine decided to do what he did and receive a four-game suspension that should have been five at the very least, if not substantially more.
Suddenly it’s left Adelaide with more on-field questions to answer and a substantially re-written Dossier. When such a big strength gets taken away, dilemmas arrive from all angles:
– How do we try and replace it
– Is it worth taking from a strength in another area to do so
– Do we change our overall approach to cover the absence
– Should we accept that area is gone and look elsewhere
It means there’s plenty to get through in the very first 2025 Finals Dossier.
Adelaide’s week-by-week evolution in 2025
The back story to this graphic: Best 22 format tells us next to nothing about how a team sets up. So I’ve spent every week this season (and last) going through every team, every game and placing player roles into something that ideally tells us a bit more about a team’s structure. Throughout the season these are exclusive to Patreon subscribers on the $10 Tier, but they’re brought out from under cover for the yearly Finals Dossiers.
It’s been a remarkably consistent structure from Adelaide right from the start of the season. Even when players have been forced out, the replacements have often been either like for like, or as close to as possible.
There’s only been one week without three key backs, Nick Murray and Jordon Butts almost rotating between themselves when fit.
The one major structural change was shifting from what I’ll call 3.5 tall forwards to start the season – Dan Curt(a)in rotating between his forward spot and a third winger – to a more settled three tall forward look. Since then we’ve seen Curtin’s forward spot filled by a more ground level player, rotating based on availability, form, and responsibilities.
Adelaide’s midfield, so often a point of contention, has found the right mix. Shifting Rory Laird to half back meant Matt Crouch started as the left over from the ‘old guard’.
When Crouch’s hip injury forced him out, his spot was taken by Sam Berry who made it his own, presenting a more well-rounded game than previous seasons. Add more midfield time for Rankine until his suspension and it made for a balanced unit, comfortable flicking between defence and attack depending on the situation.
Adelaide’s statistical overview
This is a first attempt at summing up how a team plays based off a one-page graphic. Think of it like a tale of the tape, but instead a tale of a team’s style and preferences.
I’m also very open to manipulation and bullying on which stats should be removed or added on for future versions. The more crowd sourcing, the better.
Contest: tick.
Defence: tick.
Offence: tick.
Adelaide’s style, consistent from the start of the season, ticks plenty of boxes for finals football. The strong focus on contest shines through with their contested possession rate – defined as ‘percentage of total possessions won in a contest’ – the highest in the league.
The transition offence isn’t ideal, and we’ll touch on that later in the piece. But to be strong in so many areas, usually something has to give elsewhere. It’s impossible to be top tier in every facet, unless you’re 2000 Essendon.
How Adelaide beat you
The high contested possession rate, the high contested marks, it all comes back to one theme: Trust.
Without trust this style would fall apart at even the slightest hint of pressure. Too often teams are completely unwilling to live in the contest once they gain possession, largely because of the fear of what could happen going the other way.
But we saw with Adelaide, right from their season opener, the willingness to trust their teammates to make the most of advantages. There has always been an attempt to set the ground up to accentuate the team’s strengths instead of swinging the other way with damage limitation, as has so often been the case with the Crows in recent years.
In fact, the Round 1 Notebook illustrated the process immediately. Words from that entry:
On face value it (the play) looks fairly standard. From a slow kick out it’s a kick to a contest, then two more kicks to one-on-ones before Darcy Fogarty strolls into an open goal.
But watch it back a second time and the benefit of its simplicity becomes apparent. The kick from Josh Worrell is in a position where Riley Thilthorpe can use his advantage in the contest without bulk numbers competing against him.
After Thilthorpe’s mark, the field has been spaced enough where Jordan Dawson’s second effort means he can present a viable option. Dawson’s aerial strength is superior to most midfielders in the competition.
Then there are still multiple options for Dawson to look for inside 50. He opts for Josh Rachele, the St Kilda defence buckles under the pressure, and Rachele handballs over the top to Fogarty for what will be his simplest goal of the year.
And if you’re wondering whether that was all set up to take half a victory lap at identifying a key theme in a team’s first game … no comment.
However, trust can only get you so far without actually executing around contests on both sides of the ball. To that end, Adelaide has also excelled.
The addition of James Peatling, often tag-teaming with Rankine when the latter floated forward from a midfield starting position, has been an enormous advantage to maintain structural integrity.
Because with Peatling in tow, Jake Soligo consolidating his 2024 breakout, and Berry carrying out the unglamourous work, it’s all meant opponents either don’t win the ball, or if they do they’re often stuck in place.
The work of Adelaide’s on-ball unit allows the behind the ball structure to hold steady. It’s why we see the excellent defensive numbers from clearance and turnover as listed earlier, along with the Crows ranking first for opposition rebound 50s to inside 50s. Unglamorous work, no doubt, but the foundation for a great regular season.
All the defensive work has allowed Rankine and Jordan Dawson to threaten opponents consistently, with Dawson in particular having a superb season both with and without the ball. Consider some of these stat rankings, both team and league-wide:
| Dawson’s 2025 averages | Adelaide rank | AFL rank |
| Inside 50s | 1st | 3rd |
| Tackles | 1st | 5th |
| Pressure acts | 1st | 15th |
| Metres gained | 1st | 23rd |
| Kicks | 1st | 24th |
Although Dawson had a rough spot with his kicking earlier in the year, he’s largely moved past the wobble to re-establish his line breaking capabilities.
He wouldn’t be able to carry all this out without the on-ball structure around him. If Rankine isn’t the x-factor when available, if Peatling hadn’t been added, if Soligo isn’t reliable week-in, week-out, if Berry isn’t picking up some of the grunt work, then Dawson isn’t able to create maximum damage with his kicking, ranking in the top end of the competition for score launches among midfielders.
And yet, in the absence of Rankine, there’s every chance Dawson will be asked to find another level in September, because…
How you beat Adelaide
This area was a little thin on the ground before Rankine’s suspension, but it’s suddenly opened up a crucial question about Adelaide’s midfield.
For all the strengths listed above from non-Dawson and Rankine midfielders, so much of it is designed to allow those two to hurt opponents.
Suddenly when just one is available, it creates extra possibilities for opposition defensive strategies. It should mean even more attention than normal on Dawson, and even a possible tag depending on opposition preferences.
Because as we went through before, when Adelaide’s contest foundation results in clean exits, it allows them to maximise their advantages elsewhere. To oversimplify a bit: if there are minimal clean exits, it’s much harder to maximise those advantages elsewhere.
Contest and flow isn’t a whole world away from contest and grind with an inability to hit the scoreboard regularly. This is Adelaide’s danger, both without Rankine and also in their other weakness.
Disregarding their Round 24 match against North Melbourne, when they were allowed to move the ball at will from end to end, the Crows haven’t been a good transition offence team all year.
It mostly hasn’t mattered given how well every other area of their game has performed, but we saw what can happen in their most recent match against Collingwood.
Of the Crows’ 53 rebound 50s on the night, only five became inside 50s. It was pinned in their defensive half for minutes on end, with the most worrying part an inability to maintain possession with the initial rebound.
More than half of the rebound 50s ended in either a direct turnover or stoppage. Collingwood were able to plug the exits, using Adelaide’s preference of trusting their aerial ability against them.
In finals, when the game can swing on such fine margins, the inability to transition at even a league average rate – more so to relieve pressure rather than generating scores – looms as a key area.
Without it, and if Adelaide end up working to more of a straight contest game in the absence of Rankine and (surely) extra focus on Dawson, there’s every chance a spectacular defensive unit will be put under more pressure than they’d like.
The Intangible: How will Rankine be replaced?
Rankine was the point of difference in Adelaide’s midfield. His absence leaves an enormous hole that can’t be replaced like-for-like.
In the Crows’ first game without him for the year, the clearance (-21) and contest (-29) numbers looked ugly against North. However, those raw tallies don’t tell us a huge amount about what to expect in finals, simply because of the outsized focus North put on those areas in place of others.
From a rotation point of view, Sid Draper had on-ball time but was largely ineffective. Regardless, asking a first-year player to come in cold and play an important role at the business end of the year is unrealistic.
Along similar lines, if Josh Rachele is available at some stage in September, anything Adelaide get out of him is a bonus. Two significant injuries – multiple fractured ribs early in the season, followed by knee surgery a couple of months ago – has limited his campaign to just 10 full games.
Perhaps the wildcard is Curtin. His permanent move to the wing mid-season has been vital for Adelaide’s setup, allowing them to have the aerial advantage in yet another area of the ground.
In recent weeks they have flirted with on-ball time for Curtin, particularly in the second half of the Showdown. The query is whether anything gained from an on-ball shift outweighs the loss of moving Curtin from an area where he’s consistently influential.
Otherwise it may be a case of not looking to replace any of Rankine’s skill set, instead relying on existing contest strengths while knowing the aerial dominance is there at both ends of the ground.
It’s not an exaggeration to say Adelaide’s answer to this question defines the premiership race.
The matchups
Week 1: Collingwood
At this stage is there any point predicting anything but a topsy-turvy encounter? The last six clashes have seen margins of…
3 points: Round 23, 2025 at Adelaide Oval
10 points: Round 10, 2025 at the MCG
4 points: Round 10, 2024 at the MCG
2 points: Round 15, 2023 at the MCG
1 point: Round 7, 2023 at Adelaide Oval
5 points: Round 18, 2022 at Adelaide Oval
With that in mind let’s zero in on late game execution, because although Adelaide have a decent record (4-2) in single-digit games this season, there were worrying signs in a couple of those victories.
Holding on to a late lead is one of the toughest things to do in football, finding the balance between still threatening the opposition while not presenting them with gilt-edged opportunities, compared to fully retreating and inviting waves of pressure.
In the close wins against Port Adelaide (Round 9) and Brisbane (Round 13), Adelaide’s balance while holding a lead tilted too far towards a full retreat, allowing the Power and Lions to rush at them time and time again.
The Showdown saw Port have eight consecutive final quarter scoring shots, cutting a 22-point margin at the halfway point of the last down to just four, before a Berry behind on the siren made it a five-point win.
Then against Brisbane, after a brilliant burst of five straight goals earned a lead, they had no inside 50s (if my manual tracking is correct) in the last seven minutes of game time. Getting away with a victory was lucky in the extreme, considering Brisbane forgot the point of football is to kick it between the two big sticks instead of to the side.
Nevertheless, the common theme in both games was Adelaide’s movement, both at contest and away from it, stopped to a crawl. The strengths around contest can quickly become a weakness if that’s all the Crows look for, time and time again.
If it gets to that situation (again) against Collingwood, the method will be fraught with danger. Especially considering the Pies will be prepared with counters after what happened just a few weeks ago.
Week 2: GWS or Hawthorn
For this section we’re working under the assumption Gold Coast beat Essendon by enough to jump into seventh, knocking Hawthorn to eighth.
Both sides would present different challenges for this version of Adelaide without Rankine. Earlier this season Adelaide and GWS played out a slow, grinding game, but it wouldn’t predict a huge amount for a semi-final given how different the Giants looked on that afternoon.
It was one of the few games GWS didn’t have a three-tall look up forward, using just two in Aaron Cadman and Jake Riccardi. Meanwhile their on-ball rotation for the day had heavy minutes from Josh Kelly and Toby Bedford. Those two have moved to the wing (Kelly, when fit) and forward (Bedford), replaced by Stephen Coniglio (again, when fit) and Xavier O’Halloran.
It’s meant a better balance between ball movement and on-ball pressure, so often the key swing area for the Giants. Although issues still exist with narrowing the gap between their best and worst, their positive moments in recent weeks have come with a more well-rounded game.
Meanwhile, Hawthorn’s setup will be well equipped to meet Adelaide at their strengths and possibly highlight their weaknesses if they meet again.
The Hawks’ ‘four-tall’ forwards, albeit only with three on the ground at any one time, theoretically neutralises Adelaide’s strength behind the ball and highlights Hawthorn’s strengths with the remaining ground level forwards.
The midfield structures are built to grind away in the midfield, matching potential Adelaide counterparts, and then the likes of Tom Barrass, Josh Battle, and James Sicily have been building by the week.
With all the above in mind, it wasn’t a surprise Rankine emerged as the key influence in the last quarter of Round 21, the game breaker to separate the sides. He kicked two goals, had five score involvements of Adelaide’s eight in the term, along with a couple of clearances and inside 50s as well.
But if Adelaide and Hawthorn meet again, he won’t be there. It speaks to why that nagging feeling won’t go away heading into September. Nearly everything was set up so well for the Crows to push for a first premiership since 1998.
Rankine’s absence doesn’t rule them out of contention. Far from it. It just makes everything so much harder than it needed to be, all for uttering a word which shouldn’t have ever been in his head to begin with.