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After a fortnight’s break for the Notebook, thanks to mid-season draft updates and rest of season plans, we’re back for the Round 14 edition.
On the menu today is Brisbane’s slight shift in ball movement leading to a post-bye scoring improvement, and what may be the way forward – in the short term at least – for the Western Bulldogs’ midfield rotation.
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Brisbane’s slight shift in movement method
At their bye, Brisbane ranked first for inside 50 differential, but only 13th for inside 50 retention rate (per the Channel 7 broadcast recently), and 10th for scoring shots per inside 50.
In the two games since returning, Brisbane have lit the scoreboard up:
– Round 13 v Bulldogs: 17.12.114 from 64 entries
– Round 14 v St Kilda: 19.12.126 from 53 entries
Clearly to the eye, something has changed somewhere; the entries are still there, but the scores have been strong in the last fortnight. This quote from Chris Fagan after the win against St Kilda was revealing:
“At times tonight we probably were a bit too bold or fearless (with ball use), but that’s how I want us to play. If we’re going to get back into the season we’re not going to do it by defending our way to it, we’re going to have to attack. So that’s what we’ll keep doing.”
Looking at it from the outside, the difference appears to be where the ball is moving, getting it to areas that are higher risk but higher reward.
Particularly against the Saints, there appeared to be more of a focus on this area. It’s most likely where the ‘too bold’ comment from Fagan had its origins:
For example, this kick from Dayne Zorko, to this situation, isn’t a common thread in many teams’ arsenals. If it was a direct turnover, St Kilda would have marched right into their attacking 50 in open play. As opposed to the subsequent sling tackle in the contest and 50 metre penalty, but the point still stands.
On a fast play, when there’s space to utilise, it makes perfect sense. More often than not, this results in a mark and a scoring shot…
…and if you can get a pure one-on-one, it makes sense to go through the area as much as possible.
It was a big part in how Brisbane had a 31-point lead despite losing the clearance count 13-1. Their ball use was too much for St Kilda’s defence to handle.
The proof in the change can be seen in the numbers. Over the last fortnight Brisbane’s retention rate when going inside 50 has ticked up, but the turnover rate has as well. Meanwhile the stoppage (aka neutral) rate from entries has plummeted; an indicator of the higher-risk, higher-reward policy for the time being.
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The first-choice Western Bulldogs midfield on show?
Since Ed Richards’ midfield move in Round 6, there had only been one game with both he and Tom Liberatore in the same side.
It was Round 8 against Hawthorn, but in that game Richards played more as a high half forward. So before Saturday against Fremantle, there was still next to no data on how the Bulldogs might look when the pair both play in the midfield.
But it happened against the Dockers, and the results were promising. Maybe it’s the way forward for the Bulldogs?
On the surface, raw numbers didn’t tell us much: -4 in the clearance count and just +9 in contested possessions. But the deeper rotation with Richards added to Liberatore, Marcus Bontempelli, and Adam Treloar – along with Ryley Sanders settling into his mid/forward (or forward/mid depending on which hairs you’d like to split) role – it enabled a dynamic set of combinations to make the most of contest and stoppage wins.
Despite losing the overall clearance count by four, the Bulldogs outscored Fremantle 69-29 from the source. Seven of those goals came out of the centre, five of them in the last quarter burst when they’d wore the Dockers down to a point of no resistance. It’s barely happened to Freo all season; coming into this game they were a top-four defensive team at stoppages.
If this rotation holds after the bye, the interesting part is it’ll be the first time this year where the Bulldogs have consistently run five on-ballers. Most of the season to date it’s been the main three of Bontempelli, Treloar, and Liberatore/Richards, with the fourth rotation coming in bits and pieces from week to week and shared across players.
Early in the season it was Sanders, then there was some of Jack Macrae, and even a couple of weeks of Harvey Gallagher. Sometimes there were bit minutes for James Harmes and Riley Garcia as well.
But this core five streamlines the rotations and allows a nice mix of roles and types. It plays out in these manually tracked combinations from Saturday:
The next query comes with how the forward half looks when there are three tall forwards instead of two, which means one less ground level player and runner to call on.
Saturday was also the first time the Bulldogs played with two key forwards instead of three, but that will naturally change once Aaron Naughton and Sam Darcy are available, the former sliding straight into his spot and the latter taking Lobb’s.
Given how well the midfield rotations worked against Fremantle it’s hard to envision a world where it changes against North Melbourne in Round 16. But with Naughton and Darcy both set to be available, in the short-term is it as simple as Sanders and Macrae battling for the fifth midfield/seventh forward slot? Or do they both play and it’s the third winger spot that shifts?
Or does Luke Beveridge have something else up his sleeve ready to go that I haven’t even considered? I’m tipping it’s that one, but until then I’ll stick with the simple answer.
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For those who have missed previous Notebook entries, here are links to the last five editions:
A mid-season stocktake of win predictions: FTN, R11
The unique part of Jordon’s role on Walsh: FTN, R10
Port’s ball movement, Essendon’s floor: FTN, R9
Geelong’s investments and St Kilda’s direction: FTN, R7
Collingwood’s swarm, valued veterans, Expected Score: FTN, R6
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