Welcome to the sixth edition of The Shinboner’s Finals Dossiers. For new readers, the aim is to comprehensively profile each of the top four* teams, leaving you knowing the exact strengths and weaknesses of the sides as they head into September.
(*and then get annoyed when one of them goes out in straight sets, as has happened four of the previous five times I’ve completed this exercise)
The 2025 Finals Dossiers
Adelaide: 1st (18-5)
Geelong: 2nd (17-6)
Brisbane: 3rd (16-6-1)
Collingwood: 4th (16-7)
This year’s format has evolved again from previous years. Firstly we’ll start with a look at how the team has evolved from week to week this year, thanks to the Team Structures tool.
Then there’s something new; an attempt to provide a brief statistical overview of where a team excels and/or struggles.
Following that we’ll go in depth to explain how those areas of strength and/or weakness play out in action, with how a team beats you and how you beat them.
To finish up, it’s a look at ‘the intangible’ – a topic hard to measure for each team but important nonetheless, and a look at what to watch out for in potential matchups through the first couple of weeks in September.
Today, we look at a Collingwood team that took all before them in the first two-thirds of the season, before a drop off in the last third had them battling to secure the double chance.
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Setting the scene
With seven rounds to go, Collingwood were two and a half games clear on top of the ladder. Their 14-2 record featured a string of comfortable wins, with only two by single digits. The offence was clicking and defence even more so.
Flash forward six rounds and three quarters later, Collingwood trailed Melbourne by 10 points in a must win match to keep their top four chances alive.
While they kicked the last four goals to squeak past the Demons by six points and were then helped by Gold Coast’s upset loss to Port Adelaide, it wasn’t the most impressive way to secure a double chance.
Whether more stock is placed on the first 16 games or the last seven determines where you sit on Collingwood’s chances heading into September.
Collingwood’s week-by-week evolution in 2025
The back story to this graphic: Best 22 format tells us next to nothing about how a team sets up. So I’ve spent every week this season (and last) going through every team, every game and placing player roles into something that ideally tells us a bit more about a team’s structure. Throughout the season these are exclusive to Patreon subscribers on the $10 Tier, but they’re brought out from under cover for Finals Dossiers each year.
Throughout the year there’s been constant tweaking by Collingwood.
First it was to keep the older bodies fresh, and then in recent weeks it’s largely been forced due to injury and general unavailability, leaving changes across every line, every week.
Combine it with key drop offs in a couple of key areas and Collingwood aren’t hitting the start of finals running smoothly.
Collingwood’s statistical overview
This is a first attempt at summing up how a team plays based off a one-page graphic. Think of it like a tale of the tape, but instead a tale of a team’s style and preferences.
I’m also very open to manipulation and bullying on which stats should be removed or added on for future versions. The more crowd sourcing, the better.
This doesn’t quite tell the story of where Collingwood are at now.
Given their superb first two-thirds of the season covers for the finish, if we look at their last seven games the picture changes in several key areas:
Some of those key areas to change…
– Scores Per Inside 50: 5th > 16th
– Points Per Clearance: 10th > 16th
– Points Per Turnover: 6th > 16th
– Scores Conceded Per Inside 50: 2nd > 7th
– Points Conceded Per Clearance Loss: 5th > 12th
– Pressure Factor: 2nd > 11th
It all points to a distinct trend as the season has progressed. One which can potentially still be dragged back, but worrying nonetheless.
Before we get to that though, let’s focus on positives.
How Collingwood beat you
If we go back to the first two-thirds of 2025, when Collingwood looked unstoppable as they cruised past nearly everyone they met, their system was clicking on all fronts.
It all started from their on-ball unit. By and large it was a rotation of Nick Daicos, Scott Pendlebury, Ned Long, and Steele Sidebottom, supplemented by minutes from Jordan De Goey before he was ruled out long-term. Then Jack Crisp alternated between wing and on-ball, rotating with Sidebottom often doing the same.
The key was everyone playing their role behind Daicos as the leader. The Round 7 Notebook explained it all in-depth, but the top-line summary was everyone playing to their strengths and complementing their teammates.
As a domino effect, the forwards looked at ease with their scoring, instantly clicking as a unit. It’s easy to forget the three-tall look Collingwood used from the outset – usually Dan McStay, Brody Mihocek, and Tim Membrey, with Mason Cox as the backup when required – wasn’t something they’d used for most of 2024.
It was a new look, and it clicked instantly, helped by Jamie Elliott’s career best season in his age-33 year.
Complemented by Bobby Hill, Lachie Schultz, and Beau McCreery, it was such a formidable mix of all aspects needed to create a successful unit. Ground level presence both with and without the ball, paired with mobile, marking forwards, makes for basically any coach’s dream.
While the forwards could threaten in a variety of ways, and Nick Daicos was the midfield centrepiece, it was Josh Daicos as the back-half ball mover and Darcy Moore as the defensive fulcrum that flummoxed opponents.
Raw disposal count and average can often be twisted to suit a narrative, but in this case it’s a straightforward indicator of the importance placed in Josh Daicos’ role. Through the home and away season he averaged a tick over 27 disposals a game. To find Collingwood’s next defender, it’s a scroll all the way down to Dan Houston … at 16.9 a game.
It’s a different approach compared to other top teams who rely on half backs for ball use. Brisbane have three (Zorko, Fletcher, Wilmot) at 20+ disposals, Fremantle have two at 20+ (Clark, Ryan), and GWS obviously have two at 25+ (Whitfield, Ash).
But the key was it working up until recently. And because Collingwood are often so good at preventing opposition chances, they could take the air out of a game once they decided there was enough on the board. The three consecutive early season wins against Carlton, Sydney, and Brisbane stand as prime examples.
It’s not exactly the type of play that translates to flashy highlights, but it just suffocated opponents repeatedly and the reason why their turnover defence numbers were formidable.
Because the Magpies were able to control all parts of the game, and most importantly set up to defend behind it, when teams gained possession they were met with minimal viable options in front of the ball. The result: possession leading to nothing before Collingwood won it back.
It all sounds so much simpler written out in theory compared to actually executing, but when you combine one of the best systems in the league with a generational on-baller, one of the best key defenders alongside a very good half back, a handful of veterans still playing complementary roles at a high level, and all delivering to a multi-threat forward line, it was the perfect recipe for what we saw to start the year.
Even though it wasn’t necessarily the variety of tools compared to other teams, every tool was working at the same time. Yet as the season has progressed, teams have found a way to turn Collingwood’s strengths around…
How you beat Collingwood
Note: Before we get into this, to state the obvious: this is all much easier said than done, of course.
When playing against Collingwood, attacking them is as close to a non-negotiable as there can be. Make no mistake about it, safe is death.
If we look through the Pies’ quote-unquote ‘worst’ moments this year, the common through line is teams not afraid to go directly at them:
– Opening Round v GWS: An inability to stop the Giants attacking from any area of the field
– Round 18 v Gold Coast, first half and late in Q4: The Suns looking to attack through Collingwood’s key personnel
– Round 19 v Fremantle, last quarter: Dockers flicking the switch late and moving directly at – and through – the defence
– Round 21 v Brisbane: The Lions presented an attacking contest and forward half game that Collingwood had no answer for
– Round 22 v Hawthorn: A complete breakdown everywhere as the Hawks overwhelmed them at the source and then moved with speed in the next phase
If we zero in on the Round 18 game as a way to provide greater context to where Collingwood are vulnerable, it’s how their preferences can turn from a strength into a weakness.
Their midfield is set up to run through Nick Daicos, with complementary pieces around him in support. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, given who we’re talking about. It’d be negligent to not prioritise Daicos in some way.
Teams often fall into a mindset of ‘how do we stop him’ first, before thinking about anything else. That plays right into Collingwood’s hands, because it allows Daicos to play as he pleases, minimising his defensive responsibility.
Against Gold Coast, we saw the Suns make a point of playing through whoever Daicos’ direct opponent was wherever possible. It was all covered in the Round 18 Notebook, and it paid the ultimate dividends.
Once the system is breached, Collingwood don’t have the same top gears other teams possess. In this specific midfield example, the complementary pieces aren’t capable of carrying prime responsibilities for a long period of time.
The following week, we saw Fremantle look to play through Darcy Moore’s direct opponent. Moore is a supreme defender, capable of making it look like he’s in two places at once sometimes. Much like the Daicos example, teams often look to play a defensive forward on him.
When that happens, it gives Moore licence to roam knowing his direct opponent is looking to defend first, rather than score. Fremantle flipped it around and looked for Pat Voss as often as possible – the (equal) most he’d been targeted inside 50 this season.
The results were spectacular for Fremantle. When Moore’s influence is quelled in this way, it leaves the remaining defensive pieces vulnerable – especially when Jeremy Howe isn’t fit.
Then when teams go at Collingwood’s structural keys, if it works we see an offensive drop off quickly arrive. As we went through earlier in the numbers detailing Collingwood’s recent decline, the scoring and pressure has dried up.
It’s a direct result of more teams going at them and successfully executing.
The Intangible: Floor v Ceiling
Might as well save the most debatable intangible for last, and a theory I’ve been mulling for most of the year. Here goes:
1) If you lined all the top tier teams up and guaranteed they’d all play near their worst, Collingwood come out on top
2) If you lined all the top tier teams up and guaranteed they’d all play at their best, Collingwood bring up the rear
In other words, Collingwood’s floor is higher than everyone else, but their ceiling is also lower.
Obviously there’s much more than ‘team plays well, will win’ that comes into it. The push and pull of trying to stop the opposition’s strengths versus concentrating on your own game or emphasising your own strengths while leaving a lingering weakness or two.
But the overall point is because Collingwood have such a strong system in place, it makes it tough to put in a genuinely poor performance. It’s why the Round 22 loss against Hawthorn prompted so much hand wringing and an apology to fans from Craig McRae. It was the first time in recent memory – much more so than their season opener – their famed system looked at sixes and sevens.
The query when it comes down to matches against the best is what matters more: the floor or ceiling? Can their opponents get to another level Collingwood can’t reach? Or will the floor prove a sturdier foundation?
The matchups
Week 1: Adelaide
While this section in Adelaide’s Dossier focused on late-game execution, for Collingwood it’s about ball movement.
Their 71 inside 50s against the Crows in Round 23 was a McRae-era high, bettering 66 against Port Adelaide in Round 6, 2024 and 65 – also against the Power – in Round 1, 2025.
Yet even allowing for the conditions at a greasy Adelaide Oval, the most noticeable thing about Collingwood’s ball movement was a lack of imagination. It’s not normally a charge that can be pointed at the Magpies either.
Of those 71 inside 50s, Collingwood retained possession from only a third, a rate of retention so low it’d set never to be beaten historical benchmarks if maintained over any length of time.
The following week against Melbourne, we saw a renewed focus on consistently changing angles, like the process against Adelaide prompted a realisation of what needed to improve. There were more glimpses of what we saw earlier in the year, as illustrated in the ‘how Collingwood beat you’ section.
It’ll need to continue against a Crows side who will most likely double down on their contest and defence strengths while missing Izak Rankine. Getting anywhere near 71 inside 50s again will be unlikely to say the least. The game arguably takes on more importance for Collingwood than most qualifying final encounters because…
Week 2: GWS or Hawthorn
Trouble. Alarm bells. As we covered in the ‘how to beat Collingwood’ section, the best way to do it is go at them repeatedly.
For the Giants and Hawks, they did exactly that in their most recent meeting against the Pies and reaped the rewards. Because their respective game styles lends itself to direct, swift attack, it can expose frailties if carried out.
If we do get either of these matchups in a semi-final, it’s worth returning to in more depth. Because if the Elimination Final winner is riding high, with confidence in their method, and matched up against a Qualifying Final loser possibly licking their wounds…