Welcome to the sixth edition of The Shinboner’s Finals Dossiers. For new readers, the aim is to comprehensively profile each of the top four* teams, leaving you knowing the exact strengths and weaknesses of the sides as they head into September.
(*and then get annoyed when one of them goes out in straight sets, as has happened four of the previous five times I’ve completed this exercise)
The 2025 Finals Dossiers
Adelaide: 1st (18-5)
Geelong: 2nd (17-6)
Brisbane: 3rd (16-6-1)
Collingwood: 4th (16-7)
This year’s format has evolved again from previous years. Firstly we’ll start with a look at how the team has evolved from week to week this year, thanks to the Team Structures tool.
Then there’s something new; an attempt to provide a brief statistical overview of where a team excels and/or struggles.
Following that we’ll go in depth to explain how those areas of strength and/or weakness play out in action, with how a team beats you and how you beat them.
To finish up, it’s a look at what to watch out for in potential matchups through the first couple of weeks in September.
Today, it’s yet another appearance for Geelong. In the sixth year of Finals Dossiers, this is their fifth appearance.
Note: While other teams have‘the intangible’ as a separate section – a topic hard to measure for each team but important nonetheless – Geelong don’t, because (in my opinion anyway) they’re a straightforward read in both strengths and potential weaknesses.
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Setting the scene
Since an upset defeat to Carlton in Round 7, Geelong have lost just three times. Their 13-3record over the last 16 games can be split into two divisions:
1) The Cats’ 10 games against bottom nine opposition have largely been non-events. A 10-0 record has reaped an average winning margin of 63 points and a (hilarious) percentage of 203.1.
2) The Cats’ six games against top nine opposition have been split 3-3. The three wins…
– Collingwood at the MCG (three points, Round 8)
– Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium (14 points, Round 11)
– Gold Coast at GMHBA Stadium (24 points, Round 13)
…have been balanced out by losses against…
– GWS at GMHBA Stadium (four points, Round 9)
– Brisbane at GMHBA Stadium (41 points, Round 15)
– GWS at ENGIE Stadium (26 points, Round 18)
Obviously Geelong are one of the best teams in the league. That much is indisputable. The query is how they sit in relation to their fellow top-tier outfits.
Geelong’s week-by-week evolution in 2025
The back story to this graphic: Best 22 format tells us next to nothing about how a team sets up. So I’ve spent every week this season (and last) going through every team, every game and placing player roles into something that ideally tells us a bit more about a team’s structure. Throughout the season these are exclusive to Patreon subscribers on the $10 Tier, but they’re brought out from under cover for Finals Dossiers each year.
Positionally it’s been a more settled Geelong team than last year, even though around the margins the total player total hasn’t changed too dramatically:
2024: 15 players to have missed no more than three games, 35 players used in total
2025: 18 players to have missed no more than three games, 31 players used in total
Part of the (relative lack of) positional change in 2025 has been due to the introduction of Bailey Smith. For the plethora of benefits he brings to a team, he’s not a plug and play piece for a team’s midfield. To get the most out of him and an on-ball unit with him in it, the surrounding pieces have to cover his weaknesses and amplify his strengths.
Luckily with Tom Atkins and Max Holmes available, it’s almost the ideal duo to pair alongside Smith, for reasons we’ll get into as we go.
Elsewhere the changes have been minimal, with Mark Blicavs continuing to float wherever he’s needed – recently settling into a third tall forward/second ruck role – and Jack Martin splitting his time between all three lines before settling into a wing/forward role.
Geelong’s statistical overview
This is a first attempt at summing up how a team plays based off a one-page graphic. Think of it like a tale of the tape, but instead a tale of a team’s style and preferences.
I’m also very open to manipulation and bullying on which stats should be removed or added on for future versions. The more crowd sourcing, the better.
A heavy kicking side, who take territory well, score heavily, defend well behind it, and have no notable weaknesses apart from a couple of nagging minor queries.
That sounds like a top-line summary of most Geelong sides in recent memory and 2025 is barely any different.
How Geelong beats you
If Adelaide’s theme was trust and how everything flows from there, then Geelong’s theme is flexibility.
There are so many different ways we can go to highlight this, but first the big picture benefits of the Cats’ ability to subtly shift based on their opponent, using a couple of soccer quotes that have stuck with me.
In an interview with The Independent, Bournemouth coach Andoni Iraola said the following:
“We try not to give the teams the time to play their patterns, because everyone is prepared to exploit the spaces they have been training. We try to find these scenarios, especially against big teams because they are used to absolute control and the patterns they want.”
Geelong’s flexibility stops most opponents from consistently gaining control and finding the patterns they want. It’s a large part of why their games against lesser teams, and most matches at GMHBA Stadium, follow a similar script. Their opponents, already at a disadvantage, just can’t find any way into the game.
The speed and direction of Geelong’s ball movement shifts up and down depending on the situation and what the opponent presents. They can go from short with heavy possession retention (Round 4 v Melbourne) to longer with fewer marks (Round 7 & 8 v Collingwood & Carlton) without any long bedding in process.
While Geelong’s method may seem unpredictable to the opposition, trying to figure out how they’re deciding to move the ball this week, the most important part is it’s predictable to Geelong. The part that stays largely the same is they’re in control of whether their possession goes to contest, which brings us to the second soccer quote (brackets my own clarification):
“You’re creating what’s essentially an artificial transition (based on possession), and you’ve minimised the risk because you’ve dictated when it’s going to happen.”
This quote comes from The Athletic in May 2024, referencing Liverpool’s patterns of play and how they dictate what happens. It’s a similar mindset for Geelong when they’re in possession. More often than not it may look like they’re in trouble, but they know exactly what they want to achieve.
Let’s look at one example of what could be 500, focusing on general structures and processes. Geelong’s half forwards are crucial to their success; sometimes playing as extra midfielders, sometimes coming up to contests, sometimes hanging just outside, but always involved in play regardless.
The key in this particular passage is Tyson Stengle. While the kick in looks like it’s just to a big pack, keep an eye on Stengle behind the play. He knows where the space will be and where to take position as the theoretical next link in the chain. So from the moment his opponent drops off, Stengle takes a little bit of width, allowing those at the contest space to move, along with space for his teammates to run through close to goal.
Once Geelong win the contest (a little fortuitously), Stengle is in prime position to be used. His teammates have run through the contest to find space, and Jeremy Cameron marks inside 50. From what looked like a standard long kick in, Cats are set up one and two steps ahead.
Moving up the midfield and for all the attention Smith and Holmes receive (mainly Smith, let’s be honest), it’s Atkins who is Geelong’s engine.
For me, Atkins is Geelong’s most important midfielder and probably the most underrated player in the competition. Without him, Smith and Holmes can’t play anywhere near the way they do.
Atkins leads Geelong in score launches, which is defined as a ‘scoring chain launched by an intercept possession, free kick, hit out to advantage or clearance.’ In other words, his clearances are, well, clean. They’re valuable possessions and not hacked territory.
He also leads Geelong in total clearances, making for volume behind the value. Then defensively, we all know about the league-leading 205 tackles. He’s also second in the league for pressure acts, almost a one-man defensive show at times.
Everything Atkins does allows Smith and Holmes to take the plaudits and catch the eye. The phenomenal running power, the gaudy statistics, the metres gained popping off the page. It’s all possible because of Atkins laying the foundation.
League-wide, Atkins has the second highest contested possession rate of any non-key position player with 200+ disposals for the year. What he does is the furthest thing from flashy. It is also indispensable to Geelong.
Holmes is also the perfect running partner for Smith. Teams can lock in on one or the other if they so choose, but to have two is nearly impossible to stop. Because they’re not exclusively outside players, it means they can almost take turns winning contests.
We see it at centre bounces where, with a little more space available compared to around-the-ground stoppages, Smith and Holmes are more often targeted than Atkins. Then at ball ups and throw ins, when there’s a greater density at the drop, focus switches to Atkins while Smith and Holmes more often play first receiver.
Put the three together – Atkins, Smith, and Holmes working in sync – and it’s just about the ideal midfield for the modern game, with complementary skill sets.
Then when we look at the Coleman Medallist, it almost feels a little insulting to Cameron having him nearly as an afterthought at the end of this section.
The partnership he’s formed with Shannon Neale, the latter blossoming in year five after a patient development process, has allowed Cameron to play exclusively to his strengths and kick a career-high 83 goals.
Cameron only barely scrapes into the top 50 of the league for contested marks, a rarity for key forwards at the pointy end of the goal kicking table (unless you’re Jack Gunston and pretending you’re 25 years old again).
With Neale taking much of the contested focus, blessed with a strong pair of hands and a reliable set shot, it’s allowed Cameron to create maximum damage covering the ground in the forward half.
If we look at the top 10 key forwards this year for marks inside 50 and how many of them have been contested, Cameron stands out for his lower tally relative to peers. Again, except for Gunston who’s had a freakish season in Year 16:
| Player | Marks inside 50 | % contested inside 50 |
| Jeremy Cameron | 74 | 20.3% |
| Mitch Georgiades | 74 | 24.3% |
| Aaron Naughton | 67 | 31.3% |
| Jack Gunston | 64 | 9.4% |
| Riley Thilthorpe | 60 | 36.7% |
| Ben King | 58 | 37.9% |
| Logan Morris | 55 | 25.5% |
| Shannon Neale | 55 | 32.7% |
| Sam Darcy | 50 | 48% |
| Aaron Cadman | 48 | 27.1% |
Collate everything and we’re left with smart, flexible setups allowing Geelong’s best players to maximise their strengths. Sounds like the ideal way to set up a team.
How you beat Geelong
This section may sound a little basic to start but stick with me.
If we look for teams with consistent recent, repeatable success against Geelong, we’re left with just three:
– Brisbane: Three wins in a row
– Carlton: Three wins out of four
– GWS: Four wins in a row
(Not included: St Kilda’s strange quirk I can’t understand of looking like world beaters for half of every game at Marvel Stadium)
The common link between Brisbane, Carlton, and GWS is a clearly defined style for each, arguably the three clearest in the competition.
Although Geelong have flexibility as a feature, it can sometimes be neutralised by opposition who, to an extent, almost disregard it.
Brisbane have their kicking game, Carlton have their contest and grunt game (often a flaw this year, but still), and GWS have their general ball movement. They also have a habit for Expected Score sorcery, which I had to mention somewhere.
Nevertheless, to oversimplify a touch, many of Geelong’s preferences – pull a lever this way to counter them, pull it that way to exploit him – don’t have the same effect against an opposition who just continue to press the way they want to and look to play through it.
Geelong’s six losses this year have come against St Kilda at Marvel, Brisbane twice, Carlton once, and GWS twice. The other 13 teams have been met with for 16 straight wins.
If Geelong are met with opponents who have defined setups that won’t be shaken – and obviously execute at a high level – what happens next?
Does that flexibility, which often stops opponents in their tracks, mean much when it’s looked down on and almost scoffed at by a team who come in with the utmost confidence in their own scheme?
The matchups
Week 1: Brisbane
Of all the matchups, this might have been Geelong’s worst result, even allowing for Brisbane’s injuries.
It’s not about Brisbane winning the last three matches, although obviously that’s important. It’s more about how in all of those games, they’ve had answers for Geelong’s questions.
In last year’s prelim they figured out a way to slice through Geelong’s defence. Earlier this year they kept Geelong scoreless for an entire quarter, and in the most recent meeting, Geelong, at home, went goalless for nearly an entire quarter of game time (albeit with a couple of misses along the way).
The common theme in all three has been Brisbane shutting down Geelong’s offence and defence for long periods. It’s a huge worry.
Week 2: Fremantle or Gold Coast
Much like Adelaide’s section to kick off this year’s Finals Dossiers, let’s work under the assumption Gold Coast beat Essendon by enough to jump into seventh and this side of the bracket. If it doesn’t happen there’ll be an editor’s note inserted below.
If Geelong are forced into a semi-final, either of these options are much more palatable than GWS (four losses in a row) or Hawthorn (basically a neutral game at the MCG).
The flexibility Geelong have in their gears of play would hold them in good stead against Fremantle’s preferred modes. We’ve seen the Dockers flirt with more aggressive movement but often stay content to live in the grind. Sometimes this year they’ve been caught in between the two and if it happens again in a semi-final, there’s no worse opponent than Geelong. The Cats will read and react to toy with Fremantle.
Meanwhile, for all of Gold Coast’s improvement this year, they are a half step below the other finalists. They match up well with Fremantle, which provides a live chance of progressing to week two. But their flaws are in areas Geelong should take advantage of if they meet.
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