Welcome to the third of the mid-season Notebook Health Checks, looking at every team as they come off their bye and get ready for the rest of the home and away season. For those who missed the schedule:
Round 12 Notebook*: Carlton, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs
Round 13 Notebook: St Kilda, Fremantle
Round 14 Notebook: Collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond, Sydney
Round 15 Notebook: Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast
Round 16 Notebook: Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, GWS
(*North Melbourne’s separate standalone post)
The goal for each of these posts is to go back over the pre-season wins prediction, reevaluate the Look Ahead question, and finish with what their key goals should be for the remainder of 2025.
On to our first four-team edition, covering this week’s quartet in alphabetical order.
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Collingwood’s health check
Pre-season win line: 13.5
Prediction: Over (some confidence)
Verdict: Got one! Surely, anyway. Imagine the scenes if Collingwood don’t go over 13.5 from here.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: Will the three ‘tall’ forward setup work?
That ended up being a bit too niche, so we’ll ignore it in favour of looking at everything else.
Currently, Collingwood are … and take a breath while we rattle through all these:
– 1st in scores per inside 50
– 1st in scores conceded per inside 50
– 1st for points conceded per turnover
– 2nd for time in forward half
– 2nd for time in possession
– 2nd for points scored per turnover
– 3rd for points conceded per clearance loss
They all seem pretty good! Collingwood’s health check has flashing green lights everywhere you look. Only Geelong (30) have used fewer players than the Pies’ 31, with the lack of injuries to key players allowing well timed rests to massage some through the season.
The normal close game magic has continued, with two single figure wins and almost pinching one against the odds v Geelong. It takes the Pies’ record in single figure games under Craig McRae to 25 wins, 2 draws, and just six losses, which is barely believable.
Down back, they haven’t needed to unlock Dan Houston in a similar way to his time at Port Adelaide, because Josh Daicos’ form has been good enough to allow Houston in a more secondary role as a distributor.
Ned Long coming out of nowhere has balanced the midfield, along with Steele Sidebottom spending more time inside, as covered in the Round 7 Notebook. And then down forward, Jamie Elliott’s career best form has taken the headlines, but underneath him there’s been an even spread of goals.
Given how their game looks to be in order on both sides of the ball, the remaining query for them is whether their list can continue to maintain the rage over a full campaign. While the query for opponents is whether they can find a crack in the Pies’ armour, which can sometimes happen when a side starts the year so far ahead of everyone else.
For those who have missed it, the last five Notebook entries on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
St Kilda and Fremantle’s health checks: Round 13’s Notebook
Carlton, Port, and Bulldogs health checks: Round 12’s Notebook
Teams moving in different directions: Round 11’s Notebook
How to get 49 disposals in a game: Round 10’s Notebook
Rolling stoppages and fast-tracked rookies: Round 9’s Notebook
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Gold Coast’s health check
Pre-season win line: 11.5
Prediction: Under (some confidence)
Verdict: Not quite. Although in my defence, it was using the ‘will go under until Gold Coast prove it’ line, which seems acceptable.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: How will they bounce off half back?
The back seven as a whole has gelled very well, as it turns out. After Charlie Ballard’s season ending injury in the opener, Mac Andrew returned from an injury of his own to take Ballard’s place.
From the Suns’ second game onwards, the core defensive unit of Collins-Andrew-Uwland-Jeffrey-Powell-Noble-Rioli has missed a grand total of … wait for it … zero games. That continuity has allowed Noble and Rioli the freedom to play their roles, taking the game on – and in turn it’s allowed Jeffrey and Powell to function smoothly as secondary distributors with less pressure on them.
It’s led to fewer problems with their ball movement, translating to more regular scoring. Last year the Suns ranked dead last for percentage of inside 50s retained with 45 percent. This year’s it’s improved to 51.4 percent (11th overall). Not surprisingly their scores per inside 50 have increased from 17th (40.3%) to 10th (43.7%).
Although it doesn’t exactly scream ‘offensive juggernaut’, it’s worked hand in hand with a strong defensive profile. Only one side has conceded less scores per inside 50 than Gold Coast’s 41.1 percent (Collingwood with 39.8%).
It paints the picture of a very good defence, paired with a solid offence that still has plenty of room for improvement: namely the type of ground level forward to create chaos. Their two top goal kickers for the year – Ben King (33) and Ben Long (24) – get most of their joy from marks and set shots.
We know those ground level forwards are an integral part of Damien Hardwick’s style when everything is up and running, and on paper it might be the last piece missing. That, plus the intangibles of how to deal with playing higher stakes games, is what Gold Coast’s ceiling for 2025 hinges on.
Either way, they surely should still reach their first ever finals series.
Richmond’s health check
Pre-season win line: 2.5
Prediction: Over (some confidence)
Verdict: Got one! It must have nearly been some sort of record to wrap this up by Round 9.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: Which area is their first foundation piece of the game style?
We’ll get to that question in a second, but first, the value of veterans staying on the park – mostly, anyway – has been invaluable this season, and will only fast track the progression of younger players.
Having Nick Vlastuin and Nathan Broad playing every single game has meant as they’re the ever presents down back, the likes of Luke Trainor (13 games, albeit the last few at half forward), Tom Brown (13 games, consistent form, plus one (1) game saving tackle), and Sam Banks (12 games, mainly down back after starting the year on the wing, averaging 20+ disposals) get to be reminded of the standard needed with every passage of play.
At the other end, Tom Lynch playing 11 games already – more than his last two seasons combined – has meant the rotating cast of young key forwards around him, whether it was Harry Armstrong (four games before injury), Jonty Faull (the last nine games), or Tom Sims (the last five games) don’t have to sniff the best key defender unless they’re trying to jump over his head.
And with the Tigers’ preference for playing at least three genuine small forwards – usually Seth Campbell (13 games), Steely Green (13 games), or Rhyan Mansell (10 games either side of suspension), they all have an anchor point as reference.
Then in the midfield, the veterans have carried the load to help the backs and forwards out. Toby Nankervis has played all but one game in the ruck, while Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto haven’t missed a game between them. Given it feels (anecdotally) on-ballers are coming into the league more and more ready as the years go by, those taken in future drafts (or Sam Lalor) won’t need as long an apprenticeship compared to the bookends.
In the meantime, the game style hasn’t been too expansive, largely sticking to the tried and true methods of pressure and contest. It keeps them in games for longer when they’re second best and can wear down sides either not ready or unwilling to cope with a ground game.
Over time there’ll be more layers added to it, but as a first half-season into a knock down rebuild, things couldn’t have gone too much better for Richmond.
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For those who have missed it, the last five North match analysis pieces on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
North Melbourne’s Round 14 analysis v Fremantle
North Melbourne’s Round 13 analysis v West Coast
North Melbourne at the mid-season bye
North Melbourne’s Round 11 analysis v Collingwood
North Melbourne’s Round 10 analysis v Richmond
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Sydney’s health check
Pre-season win line: 14.5
Prediction: Over (lots of confidence)
Verdict: Well … not quite. For a variety of reasons, as it turns out.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: Which path will they choose under a new coach?
That question turned out to be oddly prescient, perhaps not in the way intended though.
The story of Sydney’s season so far has been stripping the offensive tools that made them formidable in search for an extra defensive steel. But the latter hasn’t arrived at a level that makes the former’s drop off palatable.
As covered in two Notebooks so far this year – Round 6, and Round 11 – the search for balance has meant over extending the second and third tier players, asking them to play roles they’re not cut out for.
The two links above cover the dilemma, which makes the first game back after the bye so fascinating.
Aside from last year’s preliminary final, Sydney have lost their last nine home and away season games to Port Adelaide. Some by large margins – last year’s 112-point defeat comes to mind – and some by short margins, like when Ollie Florent’s kick didn’t make the distance.
However, the feature of those nine games have been Sydney’s inability to score consistently. If solutions have been found during the bye, the clash will be the springboard for a storming run home. If not, there’s a pair of home games against two tough opponents – Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs – to come, with the recovery job quickly becoming insurmountable.
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