Welcome to the second of the mid-season Notebook Health Checks, looking at every team as they come off their bye and get ready for the rest of the home and away season. For those who missed the schedule:
Round 12 Notebook*: Carlton, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs
Round 13 Notebook: St Kilda, Fremantle
Round 14 Notebook: Collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond, Sydney
Round 15 Notebook: Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast
Round 16 Notebook: Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, GWS
(*North Melbourne’s separate standalone post)
The goal for each of these posts is to go back over the pre-season wins prediction, reevaluate the Look Ahead question, and finish with what their key goals should be for the remainder of 2025.
With only two teams coming off the bye, this edition is a shorter one covering Fremantle and St Kilda.
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Fremantle’s health check
Pre-season win line: 13.5
Prediction: Over (lock)
Verdict (with fingers crossed): It’s happening. They should be winning their next three to get to 10-5 and cruise over from there. Should, anyway.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: Can they introduce enough risk into their game?
For a while, not really. Then against St Kilda, absolutely definitely no. The following week against Collingwood, kind of, but in a fashion as if the whole game was played down by a goal with two minutes to go.
But in the last three matches before the bye, yes. My eyes almost popped out of my head as this passage of play unfolded:
Then the direction of their kicking has changed significantly as well. As detailed on the AFL website, Fremantle went from 17th in kicking forward percentage between Round 1-9 (i.e. the kicks that went forward out of the overall total), to second between Round 10-12. And the corridor usage coming out of defensive 50 went from 12th to third in the same period.
The key for the Dockers has always been introducing enough offence to threaten opponents consistently while maintaining most of their defensive principles.
Although these last few weeks are a small sample size, we can see what happens when both sides are married up. Although it’s worrying Justin Longmuir phrased this quote in the following way after the Gold Coast win…
“Strangely enough, people are still talking about our ball movement, but our contest, midfield and our team defence has gone to another level.”
…the answer is right there why the latter three things have ‘gone to another level’ while the ball movement has improved. The ball movement forces opponents to be reactive, and when opponents are reactive rather than proactive they’re easier to defend.
Easier to defend against a team who already knows how to defend = a few strong wins in a row. When spelled out like that it reads much simpler than it is in the real world, but either way the recipe is right there for Fremantle after their bye.
There are still a couple of key issues; the balance between Sean Darcy and Luke Jackson of course, but that’s a tired topic done to death so there’s no need to relitigate. How team selection pulls the right levers around their key players – e.g. how much the veterans (Fyfe, O’Meara, Walters) warrant a position when fit – and the balance between midfield and forward for someone like Shai Bolton, all requires flexibility we haven’t consistently seen yet.
But all the pieces are there, and they seem to be on the right track for the time being.
And one more note to finish, which isn’t quite proper analysis but rather just emptying the notebook: Corey Wagner becoming a proper AFL player is cool to see. To come into the AFL as basically just a kick and not much else (link here for proof), do the rounds, and develop into someone who can carry out a couple of different roles is just fun.
For those who have missed it, the last five Notebook entries on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
Carlton, Port, and Bulldogs health checks: Round 12’s Notebook
Teams moving in different directions: Round 11’s Notebook
How to get 49 disposals in a game: Round 10’s Notebook
Rolling stoppages and fast-tracked rookies: Round 9’s Notebook
A centre bounce setup: Round 8’s Notebook
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St Kilda’s health check
Pre-season win line: 10.5
Prediction: Under (lots of confidence)
Verdict: Maybe? Probably? Possibly? I don’t know.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: How will the midfield mix complement Jack Steele and Jack Macrae?
From early – even in the Round 2 Notebook – it was evident the third main midfielder would be situational.
Injuries to Steele (Round 3-4 missed) and Macrae (Round 11-12 missed) have meant fewer opportunities to see it in action, but using dfsaustralia.com’s centre bounce attendance graph as a guide shows the shifting mix:
The changes in-game are frequent and sometimes dizzying. There is no hesitation for positional shifts the instant something isn’t working. It’s been needed often because arguably no team has seen a greater shift between their best and worst this year.
In a general sense, the fluctuations between uncompetitive (Adelaide, Q3 v GWS, Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, the only team to concede more than 80 against West Coast – 108) and stunning (the first half v Geelong, Q1 v Port Adelaide, the defensive masterclass v Fremantle, Q1 v Melbourne) is a relatively natural phenomenon that comes with giving so many minutes to younger players.
Take Isaac Keeler as a prime example. For large parts of his first three-game stint he struggled (understatement) at the level. But in the first quarter against Melbourne, he kicked two goals to go with four marks and seven disposals. In the remaining three terms he had three disposals and two marks. Which of all the above is closest to his level? The quickest way to find out is to play him.
Only West Coast has handed more minutes to players in their age 22 year and under than St Kilda. Conversely, only Collingwood has handed more minutes to players in their age 29 year and above than St Kilda.
Nearly 80 percent of St Kilda’s minutes are played by those age 22 year and under, or age 29 year and over. It’s fair to say most of those Saints veterans are role players rather than those to put a team on their back.
So when that happens – which is perfectly normal! – along with the younger players experiencing their natural fluctuations – also perfectly normal! – we get the wild swings in performance evident this season.
But to echo what was written pre-season on the blog, there are more pieces falling into place with time. The key word for St Kilda’s health check is patience … and eventually spending their money on the right external target, which is a whole other topic for another time.
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For those who have missed it, the last five North match analysis pieces on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
North Melbourne’s Round 13 analysis v West Coast
North Melbourne’s health check at the bye
North Melbourne’s Round 11 analysis v Collingwood
North Melbourne’s Round 10 analysis v Richmond
North Melbourne’s Round 9 analysis v Brisbane
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