A robbery in Bunbury: Round 13, 2025 v West Coast

They say these things even out, so perhaps after North Melbourne were robbed last time they faced West Coast, it was only fitting to retrieve missing belongings on a sunny Sunday in Bunbury.

There was no right for North Melbourne to still be in the game early in the last quarter, let alone a realistic chance to win. They had been utterly dominated for the entire afternoon to that point. The same performance on most other weeks in the history of the game would have meant a 10+ goal loss. Against any other opponent on Sunday it probably would have been a 10+ goal loss.

At one point the inside 50 count was 51 to 18 West Coast’s way. Fifty-one. Eighteen. Not a typo. Then, in the last quarter as the Eagles’ manic pressure subsided, suddenly it was all North.

The last eight scoring shots of the game – the last four goals – play camped in the forward half, clearance after clearance after clearance, and relatively smart decisions to kill the game meant North walked away with four points.

But before we get to what changed late, first we have to go through what wasn’t working early.

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In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice, even though there’s not a large AFL community yet.

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Sometimes stats don’t tell the full story. At three quarter time, North actually led the clearance count 27-20. In theory it would indicate an advantage in that area of the game. In reality the numbers, when combined with vision, provided a clue for why West Coast were running rampant everywhere but the scoreboard.

The Eagles’ pressure through three quarters was superb. It started, naturally enough, at stoppages.

While North were able to get their hands on the ball early and often – the first possession count was actually 31-19 their way through three quarters – West Coast’s pressure meant nearly nothing North did was clean.

Scuffed clearances would invariably lead to minimal metres gained or a turnover. From the turnover, West Coast would gain more territory than North did from their clearances. Repeat the pattern a handful of times and the Eagles get deep in their forward half.

Then when North gained possession so far away from home, there was nearly no chance to get fancy with disposals to chain out. While the ball carriers were under such pressure, usually the only option was long down the line. This was when forward structure ahead of the ball became crucial.

With Nick Larkey having one of the quietest games in his career, completely blanketed by Harry Edwards, the only contested option forward of the ball was Jack Darling. While he held up relatively well considering, it was asking way too much of him.

Then at ground level, West Coast consistently had coverage around the dangerous areas, getting to those spots quicker than their North counterparts.

Searching for something, anything, to get their game going, North flip-flopped between trying to kick their way down the ground or looking to run and carry through the West Coast pressure.

At times it’d look promising for patches – Colby McKercher in particular, threatening off half back – but it’d break down due to a combination of skill errors and West Coast playing extremely well without the ball.

It meant North were back to square one, stuck a long way from home.

Take a step back, consider all the above, and put the following together:

– West Coast’s superb pressure
– North unable to get joy from clearance wins
– Forward structure ahead of the ball decimated
– Ball use confused between long to contests versus short kicking, or run and carry
– West Coast unable to get joy from their territory advantage, therefore keeping it locked in their forward half for longer

It’s no wonder why the game played out as it did for the first three quarters. Sometimes a game is based on how well one team plays; others it’s about how poorly the other fares.

While North obviously weren’t blameless for their struggles until the last quarter, through these eyes it felt like the flow was based more on how well West Coast played.

At least until the last quarter, when there were two main reasons for things suddenly changing.

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For those who have missed it, the last five North Melbourne pieces on The Shinboner, plus…

2025’s Team Structures Page
North Melbourne at the mid-season bye
North Melbourne’s Round 11 analysis v Collingwood
North Melbourne’s Round 10 analysis v Richmond
North Melbourne’s Round 9 analysis v Brisbane
North Melbourne’s Round 8 analysis v Essendon

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When talking about what happened after three quarter time, the inescapable part, which must be mentioned first, is the change in West Coast’s ability to dictate the game through pressure.

If you’re glass half full, it’s because of what we’re about to get to. If you’re glass half empty, it’s because, ‘of course they couldn’t keep it up for four quarters, North got lucky’. Whichever decision you come to, whether it’s one, the other, or a mix of both, the equally inescapable part is North did make a noticeable change.

During the third quarter, there were further glimpses of North looking to link up, running and carrying to put pressure on West Coast that way. The success rate was … variable, to put it mildly, but when it did work it presented a different look.

In the last quarter, North leaned further into it, and it all started from clearances, with a 15-4 edge. Up until this point, North had more often than not used a kick as their preferred way to exit a stoppage.

As we went through earlier, the Eagles pressure had meant these North clearance wins largely weren’t of any great value. Pressure = rushed kicks = turnovers.

The method flipped in the last term. Kicks: out. Handballs: in. Chaining up those initial handballs – successfully – to avoid West Coast numbers meant two things:

1) Ensuring the best option to then send it forward, where:
2) Those ahead of the ball had more of a chance to set up and gather numbers

Take this stoppage as an example. It’s not the most pristine passage in the world, but one handball, and then a second, allows Luke McDonald the time to pump a deep entry to even numbers where Dylan Stephens almost kicks the go-ahead goal:

That was combined with purposeful handballing all around the ground – not just from stoppages – gaining significant metres. In the previous section we talked about how the ball use earlier in the game was a little scattershot, sometimes handballing under pressure, sometimes to try and go forward, but either way dictated to by what West Coast were doing.

This time it was a renewed focus on run and carry reaping the rewards, all linked by short kicking when North did dispose by foot. Perhaps realising the struggles forward of the ball to bring it to ground, long kicks were saved for moments like the video clip above. With only 16 long kicks for the term, otherwise it was short kicks, linked with aggressive handballing, to change the game’s equation.

Although this ends in a miss, it’s like a different sport watching this North transition compared to the first three quarters:

It’s what, along with the decrease in West Coast pressure, allowed North to get back into a game they had no right to be in, and suddenly dominate the entire final term.

After a superb Cam Zurhaar contested mark – North’s only one of the last quarter – and goal put North in front, it brought us to another topic…

How would they look to close the game out?

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For those who have missed it, the last five Notebook entries on The Shinboner, plus…

2025’s Team Structures Page
Carlton, Port, and Bulldogs health checks: Round 12’s Notebook
Teams moving in different directions: Round 11’s Notebook
How to get 49 disposals in a game: Round 10’s Notebook
Rolling stoppages and fast-tracked rookies: Round 9’s Notebook
A centre bounce setup: Round 8’s Notebook

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The last few minutes

Much like what we did in the Richmond post, let’s look at what happened in the moments between Cam Zurhaar giving North the lead – with 2:17 remaining – to when Jy Simpkin sealed it with 0:40 remaining.

It took 35 seconds for the ball to leave the vicinity of the centre circle, three further stoppages after the centre bounce allowing North to soak up the clock.

Liam Baker coming through on the fly – from slightly out of frame, making it hard to ascertain what happened – created a domino effect leading to a messy Brady Hough clearance.

Luke McDonald read the bouncing ball best and kept it in tight, absorbing a tackle. His handball found Dylan Stephens, who saw Jy Simpkin over the top of four (!) onrushing Eagles:

Then Simpkin’s kick was the key. On first glance it might look a blind bomb, but clearly he knows exactly where Zurhaar is. Importantly it’s wide, meaning if the worst-case scenario eventuates – Zurhaar out marked – it’s in a position North can hypothetically defend well from.

Even better than that, Zurhaar cleanly marks. From 2:17 remaining at the centre bounce, it’s now 1:30 on the clock and North have possession in the forward half.

A kick to the pocket, and a throw in resets the clock at 1:19. Perhaps the funniest passage of the game happens next, as Xerri grabs it out of the ruck and … handballs straight to the boundary line. It’s into a dead area and doesn’t open the ground up, so, sure, why not. The clock ticks down to 1:09.

From the ensuing throw in, a clean Simpkin shot on goal could have sealed the game but drifts just wide, giving the Eagles possession with 56 seconds remaining.

North’s setup from the kick in was strong. With an extra behind the ball, knowing it was coming long down the middle, they had further reinforcements at ground level on the defensive side as Xerri battled aerially.

One of those reinforcements – Sheezel – swoops to pick the loose ball up, and the rest is history.

It was a promising 100 seconds, combining game understanding with an aggressive approach rather than sitting back and inviting pressure.

Structural changes after the bye

After a chance to reset and reevaluate, there’ll always be some changes. What we saw on Sunday:

– McKercher moving from half forward to half back, instantly making a noticeable difference whenever he got an inch of space

– As a result, O’Sullivan moved from half back to the wing and had probably his best game yet with several key moments

– That move meant a return to the six-man on-ball rotation, with a slight reshuffle in roles; Simpkin and Parker spending a little more time forward than previous weeks

– The six-man on-ball rotation led to six primary forwards rather than seven, working hand in hand with a return to two talls instead of three…

– And to finish up, McKercher’s spot as a half forward and third winger taken by Zac Fisher, seemingly also on a final quarter mission to even up the expected score with two behinds and an out on the full

Whether these changes stick for more than a week, only time will tell.

On to Fremantle next week, and North’s first chance to match their best ever season win total – 4 wins and a draw – this decade.