Welcome to the first of the mid-season Notebook Health Checks, looking at every team as they come off their bye and get ready for the rest of the home and away season. For those who missed the schedule:
Round 12 Notebook*: Carlton, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs
Round 13 Notebook: St Kilda, Fremantle
Round 14 Notebook: Collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond, Sydney
Round 15 Notebook: Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast
Round 16 Notebook: Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, GWS
(*North Melbourne will have a separate standalone post the day after the Round 12 Notebook)
The goal for each of these posts is to go back over the pre-season wins prediction*, reevaluate the Look Ahead question, and finish with what their key goals should be for the remainder of 2025.
Let’s get it started today with Carlton, Port Adelaide, and the Western Bulldogs.
(*It gets off to a terrible start today but will be better in future parts, promise)
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Patreon subscribers get early access to the Notebook each week as part of their benefits for signing up.
In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice.
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Carlton’s health check
Pre-Season Win Line: 13.5
Prediction: Over (some confidence)
Verdict: Nope. Missed that one. Because…
The pre-season Look Ahead question: What change will they make to their style?
If by ‘change’, the question meant ‘double and triple down on previous years’, then sure there were plenty of changes.
A look at what happens to Carlton’s inside 50 entries is, I think anyway, instructive of their ball movement goals:
% of inside 50’s retained: 49.8% (15th)
% of inside 50s to stoppage: 16.2% (3rd)
– As at the start of Round 12 –
That stoppage element is just as instructive as the lack of outright retention, because it indicates a fundamental flaw in what Carlton are trying to achieve.
Simple and predictable can sometimes be a good thing if everyone’s working on the same page. But there’s a thin line between good simple and predictable compared to bad simple and predictable. It’s basically this in real life:
Carlton trend towards the latter too often, either with short kicks that don’t trouble defences, or long kicks that take unthreatening territory. It’s why all the talk along the lines of ‘most of what we do is working’ rings hollow.
Territory not leading to scores isn’t a bug in Carlton’s method, it’s a feature:
Time in forward half differential: 4th
Inside 50 differential: 3rd
Points per turnover: 16th
Scores per inside 50: 18th
There doesn’t seem to be any inclination to make a shift in offensive method, which is what Carlton need to do to save their season, and potentially this mini era.
Sometimes delving into what is and isn’t working for a team reveals fun trends. For Carlton it’s just a matter of what’s staring you right in the face.
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For those who have missed it, the last five Notebook entries on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
Teams moving in different directions: Round 11’s Notebook
How to get 49 disposals in a game: Round 10’s Notebook
Rolling stoppages and fast-tracked rookies: Round 9’s Notebook
A centre bounce setup: Round 8’s Notebook
Midfielders in tandem, midfielders progressing: Round 7’s Notebook
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Port Adelaide’s health check
Pre-Season Win Line: 13.5
Prediction: Over (some confidence)
Verdict: Nope. Betting (not literally in this case) on their top-tier talent backfired.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: Will their ball movement revamp be successful?
It did for a little bit … and then the bottom fell out:
| Port’s 2025 scoring | Round 1-7 | Round 8-11 |
| Points per clearance | 8th | 18th |
| Points per turnover | 5th | 18th |
| Scores per inside 50 | 45.2% | 34.7% |
The loss of Dan Houston has hit hard, and the reshuffling of the on-ball mix – Connor Rozee moving back, Miles Bergman taking the rotation slot shortly after, a couple of injuries in the mix across the field as well – has all contributed to the drop off.
And as the offence dropped off, the defence has been continually exploited as feared. Already not the Power’s strongest area, without any offensive cushion they haven’t been able to cope under the increased strain:
| Port’s 2025 defence | Round 1-7 | Round 8-11 |
| Points per clearance loss | 11th | 18th |
| Points per turnover loss | 8th | 14th |
| Scores per inside 50 against | 46.8% | 49.8% |
One of the key reasons for this season’s slide has been something easily spotted to the eye but impossible to measure in any metrics – the transitional feel around the club as they prepare to (officially) move from Ken Hinkley to Josh Carr.
Normally I refrain from vibes-based posting but when it’s as obvious as what we’ve seen this season, it’s impossible not to mention. The natural fear of the unknown impacts everything – subconsciously or consciously – and eventually it manifests on field.
There’s still been a couple of trademark Power performances, ala the ambush of Hawthorn, but they’ve been few and far between. It leaves the second half of the season as a runway to probably organise for 2026 and get their ducks in a row.
It’s easy to forget Port are still a young team looking to get games into potential key players across all lines. Their next 12 games are an opportunity to fast track that.
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For those who have missed it, the last five North match analysis pieces on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
North Melbourne’s Round 11 analysis v Collingwood
North Melbourne’s Round 10 analysis v Richmond
North Melbourne’s Round 9 analysis v Brisbane
North Melbourne’s Round 8 analysis v Essendon
North Melbourne’s Round 7 analysis v Port Adelaide
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Western Bulldogs’ health check
Pre-Season Win Line: 12.5
Prediction: Under (some confidence)
Verdict: I’m happy this is trending towards being wrong; the Bulldogs are one of my favourite teams to watch as a neutral.
The pre-season Look Ahead question: What depth can they uncover/how much impact will it have?
It turns out when Ed Richards blossoms into a top-tier midfielder, Rory Lobb continues as a genuinely good key defender, Sam Darcy becomes Victor Wembanyama for the first half dozen games, Joel Freijah blooms into (yet another) quality on-ball option, Sam Davidson locks down a wing immediately, and Matt Kennedy does all of the less glamorous work, things can not only survive but thrive.
Which feels a bit over the top for a 6-5 side, but the losses this year have largely been different from 2024’s. Last year, six of the Bulldogs’ nine home and away defeats were by four goals or more – four of those by 39+ points – with some truly puzzling days in there.
Of this year’s five losses to date, there’s a legitimate case to be made they should have won most, with the biggest defeat – 21 points to Brisbane in Gather Round – coming after a 39-point lead early in the third quarter.
Although it can be interpreted as damning with faint praise, it hasn’t always been a Bulldogs trait to consistently stay in games like this. In addition to the stat about heavy and puzzling defeats last year, 2023 had two 50+ point defeats + a loss to West Coast at Marvel, and 2022 had three by six goals or more.
The underlying numbers for the Bulldogs are extremely strong offensively, with that system providing a cushion for middling defensive numbers:
| The Bulldogs’ 2025 offence | AFL rank |
| Points per stoppage | 1st |
| Clearance differential | 1st |
| Points per turnover | 5th |
| Scores per inside 50 | 2nd |
| Time in forward half | 1st |
| The Bulldogs’ 2025 defence | AFL rank |
| Points per stoppage loss | 10th |
| Points per turnover loss | 12th |
| Scores per inside 50 against | 13th |
If the offence drops off without a comparative defensive improvement, then it becomes a different conversation. But given the Bulldogs have been a consistently strong offensive team for a long time now, with the way they hold balance and use their best players to drive play, it feels fair to assume those strengths will continue unless something unexpected happens.
With their brutal part of the fixture out of the way, the Bulldogs now get to enjoy 10 of their final 12 matches at either Marvel Stadium or the MCG; their two interstate trips remaining in Round 16 (Sydney at the SCG), and Round 18 (Brisbane at the Gabba).
If ever there was a year for them to actually finish in the top four and earn a double chance…
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