A big step backwards: Round 4, 2025 v Sydney

The title sums today’s post up. It isn’t a game where plenty of positives can be found.

At a stretch, if there is a positive to come out of North Melbourne’s 65-point loss to Sydney, it’s that the same issues popping up again means there should be some structural tweaks.

There’ll be the normal reactions about ‘what do they stand for’, ‘what’s their system’, ‘what do they want to do’, and everything in between. Those takes are lazy and not worth paying attention to.

It’s crystal clear what North want to do. It’s equally clear to see the issues which come from that.

Today’s post is split into three parts:

1) Setting the table with some context, leading into…
2) North Melbourne on offence, and finishing with…
3) North Melbourne on defence

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The context for what happened

Sydney arrived at Marvel Stadium with a simple defensive plan.

Much like Adelaide in Round 3, Sydney looked to defend extremely high and aggressive, cutting down North’s open space when in possession.

But the Swans took the Crows’ base to another level in terms of aggression. Most teams look to compress the space available when their opponents are in possession. Think of it like a boa constrictor, gradually getting tighter and tighter.

Except Sydney’s version of a boa constrictor on Saturday night was one thrashing about in a phone box*. They were defending a smaller space than normal to begin with, and then they made North’s space smaller again.

(*For the younger readers who may not know what a phone box is, it’s a small enclosed area where people used a public phone to make calls. This has been today’s history lesson on The Shinboner)

And the Swans’ plan on offence was also relatively simple, in that it didn’t differ a huge amount to what we’ve seen from them recently.

Once they gained possession it was about flicking it around, looking for space – largely laterally on the night – and then after entering that space, using it to go forward at a decent enough speed without being breakneck.

If that sounds familiar, it’s because it wasn’t too dissimilar to what we saw from the Western Bulldogs in the season opener.

So we have North’s opponents coming to Marvel with a similar defensive plan to what we’ve seen work already this season, and a similar offensive plan to what we’ve seen work already this season.

We can see where this is trending…

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North Melbourne on offence

Last week we went through the issues with ball use out of the back half; Caleb Daniel as the only distributor allowing opponents to load up on limited outlets.

Finn O’Sullivan’s late withdrawal due to illness and Matt Whitlock’s debut meant instead of North bolstering their back half ball use, it went the other way with fewer options.

In an attempt to mitigate that, Harry Sheezel’s midfield time was largely spent as basically a sweeper, sitting on the defensive side of the ball.

But it’s not the same as playing from the half back position, despite what the fantasy stats tell you, and North quickly ran into the same problems as last week – but worse.

Against Adelaide, North were barely able to move from one end to the other. Against Sydney, North’s turnovers bounced right back over their head for goals. Six or seven* of the Swans’ 18 goals came directly from North’s turnovers when rebounding 50.

(*Tracking done manually, hence the six or seven depending on how it compares to official stats)

The natural reaction is to blame the skills, and it definitely deserves a mention. But the larger, big-picture issue is how North want to move the ball in the first place. It gives them next to no margin for error when those errors inevitably come, because no side can be flawless from start to finish.

Much of North’s kicking is short, which in a vacuum there’s absolutely nothing wrong with. For example, Brisbane had the second highest percentage of short kicks last year and apparently they won the flag.

The problems come when those short kicks are placed in the greater overall context of their ball use. North’s short kicking has too easily fallen into the slow and straight category, which is the complete opposite of what it has to be when going down this route.

Then you add handballs to the mix and things still don’t get any better. So far this year, and while admittedly it is still early, North currently rank first for total handballs – and dead last for average metres gained per handball.

So we put the pieces together to see:

• Short kicking that too easily defaults to the slow and straight
• A high quantity of handballs that lack in quality metres gained
• Few options off half back

In theory, it doesn’t take much for the first two points on that list to start damaging opponents instead of North. Insert speed – and angles – into the short kicking, look to take more metreage with the handballs, and suddenly things are threatening.

At the moment though, the offensive plan isn’t up to speed with what’s required in today’s game. The easiest tweak to start things off is getting a second proper distributor alongside Daniel, taking some of the load off his shoulders.

Ideally said distributor is more of a run and carry type alongside Daniel, providing a contrast. There are options available, whether it’s through a reshuffle in the current 23, or looking to the VFL.

When there are multiple realistic options it frees up the wingers to run their lanes, provides choice for on-ballers if they win it, and allows the forwards to get dangerous.

Instead at the moment every error gets punished deluxe because the system provides no margin for mistakes. After the Melbourne win, I mentioned we couldn’t quite learn what North had taken away from the Bulldogs loss given the Demons’ style.

The way Sydney were able to spread into space at will suggests there are still large issues. Which leads us to part three of three…

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A few weeks into the season, we have enough posts to start rolling out the ‘in case you missed it’. So without any further ado, the last five posts on The Shinboner, plus…

2025’s Team Structures Page, now updated!
Method shifts: Round 3’s Notebook
North Melbourne’s Round 3 analysis v Adelaide
Trend checking: Round 2’s Notebook
North Melbourne’s Round 2 analysis v Melbourne
An all-positive piece: Round 1’s Notebook

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North Melbourne on defence

In the Bulldogs post, a large portion was dedicated to how North’s defence was set too narrow – by design – and how the Bulldogs could get outside it too easily and dictate from there.

Sydney were able to get to space even easier on Saturday night. Some of it was because of the same reasons linked above, so let’s save everyone a few hundred words today and not relitigate it.

The extra part we saw on Saturday night worked hand in hand with North’s offence, in an unfortunate way.

As we went through earlier, when North’s offence isn’t working it devolves into shorter and shorter disposal – by foot and hand – making it easier for defences to constrict the field. Ait means when that defence wins the ball and transitions to offence, they now have acres of space to work in.

Sydney were rarely troubled once in possession. Earlier I highlighted how North conceded six or seven goals from turnovers when rebounding 50. For the Swans it was a grand total of one, from a similar attempt total.

And when the Swans did get possession after North turnovers, they scored at a rapid rate. 72 points from 58 turnovers is a ratio that would rank first over a full season by, to use a technical term, a million miles.

Part of a team’s offence is making sure their defence can be set up behind the ball as much as possible. How much focus is placed on defence while in possession depends on each team and their attacking v defensive philosophy. Regardless, it’s a crucial part of everyone’s game.

For example, the ‘going too quick’ refrain we heard at times last year plays into this discussion. If a team’s ball movement is too quick and the defence can’t get any sort of set up behind it, it leaves you vulnerable to heavy scores after turnover.

In this specific case, North’s ball movement – short and then shorter again, in an ever-smaller area – leaves their defence little hope of doing much when they lose possession. All North’s players surrounding the ball are immediately taken out of play with a simple angle shift by Sydney.

And because Swans have set up in specific areas knowing what’s coming, they can instantly switch into attack mode before North players blink. Once they blink, it’s too late.

The only hope for North is an immediate turnover back the other way. It’s part of the reason they were able to quell Melbourne so well in Round 2. The Demons’ offensive ball method, rudimentary at best, didn’t have the tools to challenge North through those first three quarters of back-and-forth play.

Against, to be blunt, better teams, there is no such luxury. When the faulty offensive method is combined with a defence that has tended to shift towards narrow straight lines – especially at Marvel Stadium – it’s a recipe for frustration.

Hopefully this has all summed up where North need to improve and improve fast. Because if they roll out the same setup next week against Gold Coast, the Suns will dish out another thumping.