It’s always a little bit of a lottery for what Match Sim will provide. There are players sitting out, others playing managed minutes, and then the biggest question mark over what vision we’ll see from largely secondary venues.
But we have more than enough for the first Notebook of the year, zipping around a few things to stand out from the first ‘competitive’ minutes against AFL opposition.
Today’s format will be naturally brief, given the changes that tend to happen from match sim to the proper pre-season game, let alone the first game for premiership points.
Each topic will be broken down into three sections:
– A pro for the situation
– A con for the situation (a couple of them tenuous)
– A wildcard for the situation
Except for the last one, which I realised didn’t quite fit into my neat and tidy concept for today’s post.
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The Patreon is up and running once again for 2025, which you can find right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice.
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Aaron Naughton continuing to play (slightly) higher up the field
This happened last year and based on early sightings, has carried over to start 2025. It’s not as if Naughton is a permanent half forward, but he’s clearly higher than the other keys.
Pro: It improves their connection from the back half with a target that demands attention from opposition defences.
Con: While Ugle-Hagan is out, if Naughton plays higher it allows teams to put greater focus on Sam Darcy close to goal.
Wildcard: Cody Weightman’s since-announced absence for at least the first half of the season could force a forward reshuffle that impacts Naughton’s role.
Dylan Shiel replacing Nic Martin’s positioning
Positioning instead of position is a deliberate word choice. From what was viewable on the stream against the Bulldogs, it seems the goal is to put Shiel in the same spots Martin was, when the latter played half back. Of course once Shiel gets the ball he’ll offer something a little different to Martin, but the starting points are similar.
Pro: It doesn’t require any rejig in the back half system because Shiel is starting in similar positions to Martin.
Con: Shiel’s skill set is slightly different to Martin. While the positioning is basically the same, once Shiel gains possession there’ll need to be a little rejig further up the field to accommodate him.
(Not much of a con this one, to be fair)
Wildcard: The domino effect benefits on other lines. Martin can play further up the field on the outside, it frees up an on-ball spot in the rotation and should help with team balance.
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For those who missed the start of season announcement, you can find it here. And the schedule between now and the start of the season is…
| Post | Patreon access | Public access |
| General 2025 announcement | Live | Live |
| Over/under win total | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 1 | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 2 | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 3 | Live | Live |
| NMFC Match Sim Analysis | Live | |
| The Notebook, Match Sim | Live | 25th Feb |
| Continuity Rankings | 26th Feb | 27th Feb |
| NMFC v West Coast Analysis | 2nd Mar | |
| The Notebook, Pre-Season | 3rd Mar | 4th Mar |
| Team Tiers, Version 1 | 5th Mar | 6th Mar |
*Plus an extra North Melbourne post in the week of Round 1*
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West Coast v Richmond
It’s rare to have two similar entries from the one match sim, but the ball movement from both sides was instantly noticeable.
West Coast: The chaos meta
Go, go, and go again, and gain metres as directly as possible. It was West Coast’s order of the day.
Pro: It creates plenty of scoring opportunities that weren’t there in previous years and should lead to periods where they’re able to kick goals in a rush. When things click with this style, opponents can get overwhelmed at times.
Con: If the team defence isn’t up to scratch, it’ll lead to plenty of goals bouncing back over their head. If chaos isn’t executed properly – a weird grouping of words – there’ll be holes in the defence that nearly any opposition can pick apart. Of course, there’s Jeremy McGovern behind the ball to help in that regard.
Wildcard: Exactly the same as Richmond’s, so if you keep scrolling…
Richmond: The control meta
Just as West Coast’s ball use method was easily spottable, Richmond’s was the same; perhaps even more so, in the opposite direction. Control was the order of the day.
Pro: It allows them to control the tempo if need be and protect the team, but…
Con: There’s a fine line between control and playing for damage limitation. Asking an inexperienced side to stay on the right side of it is a tough request.
Wildcard: How it will be tweaked as the season goes. Inevitably there’ll be a couple of heavy defeats – does the process stay the same or does it open up in certain areas?
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The Create Your Own Depth Chart feature is now part of the List Management suite, all on the $5 tier for Patreon subscribers:
You can subscribe to the Patreon for 2025 right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
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And one more observation to finish off the piece that doesn’t fit into the self-regulated format I made for myself:
Carlton’s use out of the back half
Last year the Blues ranked ahead of only West Coast and North Melbourne when it came to turning rebound 50s to inside 50s of their own.
They also had the lowest percentage of their score coming from chains starting in the defensive 50. To be clear, this part doesn’t have to be at a certain number but is being used here as a way to further illustrate bounce from the back half wasn’t a source that brought much success.
While execution was all over the place, to be expected on a day where conditions were tough and the majority of key players were either unavailable or guided through the afternoon, the process was interesting.
By bringing multiple numbers up the ground a lot further than standard, it provides options to either run and carry in a couple of distinct waves, or alternatively, move up the field with sharper possession while using the width extra numbers naturally gravitate to.
Then by disconnecting one of their key forwards from the structure – on Saturday it was largely Harry McKay or Tom De Koning – it provides a deep target over the back at all times if the first step of the process works.
In theory it solves one problem for Carlton…
– The lack of a natural roaming, connecting forward to complement McKay and Charlie Curnow (when the latter is fit)
…and creates a problem for opponents…
– Trying to keep an 18-man team defence as often as possible
Whether it works or not – or is even kept in this format for any length of time – who knows. But on face value, it’s the first step in introducing another element to their game.