This week’s Notebook is a one-topic affair, focusing on how Adelaide are setting up their midfield.
After thinking this topic was almost put to bed with changes in 2023, this season has seen a reversion to 2022 and the earlier days of Matthew Nicks’ tenure. It almost feels like groundhog day.
A few disclaimers before finishing the introduction and getting into the meat of the piece:
– This isn’t a hit job on individuals, but a discussion on how similar roles cause a domino effect
– It also doubles as a neat case study on what happens if a team gets left behind as the game changes
– The point is to illustrate how the mix to start 2024 is not bad, and perfectly okay overall…
– With ‘okay’ also its ceiling
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Look around the competition at the best midfields and there’s a consistent theme. Clearly defined roles, minimal redundancy across a group, and most importantly all players having a skill set that either damages (offensively) or restricts (defensively) the opposition.
Adelaide’s mix against Geelong was Jordan Dawson, Matt Crouch, Rory Laird, Sam Berry coming up from half forward to play as an extra midfielder, spot minutes to Izak Rankine and Jake Soligo, and a blink of the eye for Josh Rachele.
Two of those first four names – Crouch and Laird – are the keys for this discussion. On paper they had great games:
– Crouch: 37 disposals, 9 clearances, 89.2% disposal efficiency
– Laird: 29 disposals (18 contested), 8 clearances
When two of a team’s high-minute midfielders stuff the stat sheet, a normal expectation is for it to translate to any or all of the following: Heavy clearance advantage, more scores from stoppages, heavy territory advantage, playing a forward half game, causing turnovers in dangerous places because of it, and ultimately scoreboard pressure.
How it actually turned out for Adelaide:
– Clearances: 47-38; +9
– Points from clearances: 38-52; -14
– Inside 50s: 66-53; +13
– Scores per inside 50: 33.3%-49.1%; -15.8%
– Turnovers forced: 62-71; -9
To summarise, all the stoppage advantage did turn into a territory advantage. Then Adelaide couldn’t score from it or keep the ball locked in by forcing turnovers.
The chief reason for it is because of how the ball was delivered … which brings us back around to the midfielders mentioned earlier. When we’re talking about top midfield groups complementing each other, it means their skill sets work in harmony.
When Crouch and Laird have the ball, it doesn’t actually move very far*. Two of Adelaide’s high-minute midfielders get it, and the end result is … not a lot.
(*The natural reaction is ‘how is that relevant to inside 50s?’ We’ll get there)
With how the AFL is played in 2024, teams simply can’t carry two of those midfielders in one team. Add Berry into the mix and it’s three, which isn’t even mentioning Ben Keays; excommunicated to half forward to avoid similar issues. Because the 22 is carrying so many similar players, it also limits in-game flexibility.
Metres gained is an imperfect stat depending on role, but here it’s relevant to illustrate how the ball stops in Crouch and Laird’s hands, followed by the flow on effect for everyone else.
After some manual copying and pasting, followed by some Excel auto sum and average, the difference between Crouch and Laird compared to the league is extraordinary.
| Round 2 | Average metres gained per disposal |
| Matt Crouch (37 disposals) | 7.8 |
| Rory Laird (29 disposals) | 7.0 |
| Rest of the AFL average (5,749 disposals) | 16.5 |
Which brings us to the part where we hit the tape. It’s a two-step process:
– Illustrations of Crouch and Laird’s role
– What effect it has on the remaining ball movers
The second one has been understated, but before we get there, a half dozen quick hit clips of Crouch and Laird in action. It could have been many more, but in the interest of not droning on (probably too late), let’s keep it short and snappy.
The point is to show in isolation, none of these possessions are particularly bad. They could be better, for sure, but there are plenty worse out there. For instance when Luke Pedlar ignored a Taylor Walker lead to kick to an imaginary Crow in the pocket, but I digress. It’s when these happen repeatedly…
…a pattern is created of two players playing to their strengths, but not damaging the opposition. Of course Geelong are trying to stop Crouch and Laird winning possession, but it’s hardly panic stations if the two Crows do.
When Crouch and Laird have the ball, what Geelong are doing is making sure remaining Crows have little room to easily continue ball progression.
It’s perhaps the most important part of this whole discussion: Crouch and Laird are one-possession, short-disposal midfielders. They don’t break lines, continue along in chains, or hurt opponents in possession, so in turn the opposition is allowed to devote greater focus to those who can.
And that brings us to the pressure on other Crows. It reduces the margin for error for those like Dawson. He’s the only remaining high-minute midfielder – as the team is currently set up – with the capacity to hurt in possession.
It was notable how Geelong dedicated resources to Dawson, more so than normal across the field. Able to have that luxury because of how Adelaide were setting up, it was frequently two players sent to the captain in open play, with situations like this…
…and this…
…as well as this…
Frequent across the night. Sometimes it doesn’t look like much in a freeze frame, but it happened time and time again and wears a player down. Whether Dawson had the ball or was merely close to it, Geelong’s team defence was laser focused on him at all times.
Dawson still had 11 inside 50s; actually an equal career high and a mark he’s only hit one other time in his 111-game career.
Of those 11, a grand total of four were retained by Adelaide. One went to a stoppage, which meant six were turnovers.
To reiterate: Dawson ranked sixth for inside 50s in 2023. Of the top 25 players, no one retained possession from entries more than Dawson. Against Geelong he turned it over more than half the time.
It’s why the issue with Adelaide’s midfield mix is a little more complex than ‘Crouch and Laird do more please’. Because on paper, a game with Dawson having 11 inside 50s is exactly what the Crows would want.
Crouch and Laird are playing to their strengths and – to be clear – in isolation are playing well! They’re doing exactly what they’re supposed to!
They shouldn’t be taking the blame, because the way forward for this Adelaide group is to play with only one pure first possession and/or accumulator type in their midfield mix. Otherwise the pressure on Dawson and others is too great to be rewarded on the scoreboard consistently.
We saw it last year as Adelaide worked at establishing a more aggressive style than at any other time under Matthew Nicks. Through the first 18 rounds – where Crouch and Laird never started in the same 22 – the Crows were harder to defend from stoppages and got more value from their wins.
Then Crouch came in for the rest of the season and from Round 19-23 – before a fill your boots game against West Coast in Round 24 – it was the same story as what we’ve spent the last 1200 words discussing. More stoppage wins for sure, but less value for them and conceding more from losses:
| 2023 | Round 1-18 | Round 19-23 |
| Stoppage wins | 676 | 207 |
| Points from stoppages | 636 | 170 |
| Points per 100 stoppages | 94.1 | 82.1 |
| Stoppage differential | -33 | +25 |
| Points from stoppage differential | +78 | -9 |
With the load spread around last year, it was a different, more dynamic Adelaide side to any time since Nicks took over. Since reverting to type, it’s like playing at three quarter speed. For a team many had high hopes for to continue progressing.
Because the individual players are still more than useful in a vacuum, Adelaide are never going to be a bad side with this mix. But because that same group don’t bring out the best in each other with their skill set – along with the pressure it puts on other lines – they’re never going to be a genuinely good side either.
Which means for the Crows to reach the next level, they need to make immediate changes to their midfield mix, along with relevant roles and responsibilities. Otherwise they’re going nowhere.
Good analysis, the Crows lack the dynamic mid to elevate them higher tier.
They are good, honest players. Just need one more spark. Rankine playing more minutes in the mid may help.