It’s always dangerous to read too much into match simulation, especially the later a game goes and the more we see personnel rotating.
But what can be picked up is structural questions – both team and individual – and how it’s all working together at this early stage.
My personal preference is to largely, but not always, disregard things after half time. With so many players taking the boots off after a couple of quarters, the second halves often looked like different games.
With all that in mind, today’s Notebook is a quick text-based (no video just yet) whip around for a handful of things to stand out over the round of match sims.
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Melbourne v Richmond
Melbourne: This was going to be a section about early looks at a couple of rookies, but the subsequent news on Angus Brayshaw’s retirement changes everything. Planned roles will have been torn up, flexibility takes a hit, and there’ll be adjustments. Let’s pause on this until the official pre-season game.
Richmond: It was noticeable how the Tigers set up the ground to play a kicking game; obviously a departure from recent memory under the previous regime.
Their 2024 ceiling depends on how long they’re stuck in the ‘this ball movement looks a bit … slow’ stage of development. It’ll look stodgy at times after clubs do early research and tie up the Tigers’ preferred patterns – how quickly Richmond adjust and improve will be the key.
Collingwood v North Melbourne
North Melbourne: The traditional full North match analysis
Collingwood: The Ash Johnson-Reef McInnes battle (with an honourable mention to Nathan Kreuger) to see who gets first nod in replacing Dan McStay is intriguing. They both have slightly different skillsets and are just ‘moments’ players at this stage without consistently influencing. Is that enough for either to nail down a spot consistently?
An early hunch is we’ll see some rotation through that part of Collingwood’s forward line.
Carlton v Geelong
Geelong: Max Holmes off half back caught my eye immediately. Although his kicking was off on the day, it hasn’t been a trend of his since coming into the league, so it feels fair to blame the conditions and move on.
A Holmes-Mitch Duncan combination off half-back (alongside Tom Stewart doing Tom Stewart things) is a nice mix of speed and precision, youth and experience to give Geelong different levers to pull depending on the game situation.
Cam Guthrie’s injury might force a change to those plans however.
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn
Western Bulldogs: There had been a bit of chat about Nick Coffield and Buku Khamis fighting for one spot in the back seven…
Could they both fit in against certain opponents? It probably wouldn’t work every week – unless injuries elsewhere force their hand – but those two + Liam Jones is a neat intercepting trio, which then frees up the likes of Bailey Dale and Ed Richards to provide more bounce and drive.
There were more (good) questions than answers to come out of the match for the Bulldogs.
Hawthorn: Calling what’s happened to Hawthorn’s defence an injury bug seems like an understatement. Maybe an injury pandemic? Or does that bring back too many bad memories?
Regardless, it’s put so much pressure on the midfield in a year where it looked like the goal was to broaden the rotation. Usually when that happens there’s a touch of – completely natural, it must be stressed – slippage as new players get used to different roles and minutes.
Now, the midfield has to be good every week with next to no margin for error. Otherwise it’s exposing an undersized and undermanned defence for entry after entry. It’s an unenviable position to be in for a developing side.
West Coast v Fremantle
West Coast: It was instantly noticeable how high West Coast pushed their defence up the ground and around contests. The theory is simple and largely in line with team defences around the league: more pressure around the ball = forced turnovers = ball stays in the forward half for longer.
The counter to that was how often it left the Eagles exposed on the spread, but that’s both okay and to be expected because it’s so early in their journey of playing this way. Personal opinions will vary, but my own theory is I’d rather see mistakes come from over committing to this defence trying to force turnovers rather than going in half-hearted and getting stuck in no-man’s land.
Ideally over the course of the year West Coast get better at defending this way with more reps. If three quarters of the list don’t go down injured again.
Fremantle: I don’t want to believe Nat Fyfe is back because if he goes down again I’ll be disappointed. But I do want to believe Nat Fyfe is back because then we get to watch Nat Fyfe.
If my math is correct, Fyfe has missed 35 of Fremantle’s last 51 games. Of the 16 he’s played, in five he’s either started as sub or been subbed out. That makes 11 full games in a little more than two years.
And then you hear all the reports about his pre-season, see him roaming around looking damaging in the match sim and think … does he have one top level season left in him?
Fyfe doesn’t have to be the guy anymore. Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong take the heavy lifting, Hayden Young has moved in to provide a point of difference with his kicking and defensive roles, Matt Johnson has taken a step forward, and it looks as if Jaeger O’Meara will be the spare parts/utility role across midfield and wing rotations.
Fyfe can just do Fyfe things. I want to believe.