Heading into Saturday afternoon at the SCG, North Melbourne’s chances largely hinged on how they’d be able to handle the absence of Tristan Xerri against a red-hot Brodie Grundy.
For most of the first three quarters, they held up admirably well, working to neutralise the Swans’ main strength and looking to capitalise the other way.
Unfortunately, it was a recurring bugbear – turnovers, the simplest form of them – which put paid to any hope of an unlikely result. Then when Sydney made tweaks to start the last quarter, the margin quickly got out of hand.
Today’s post will focus on the ruck/stoppage battle, along with the turnovers and what can be done about them.
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The battle around the ruck
When a team goes into a game knowing they’ll be on the wrong side of the ruck battle, it often simplifies the on-ball unit’s roles and responsibilities.
For North’s ruckmen – briefly Callum Coleman-Jones (18 ruck contests) before his injury, then mainly Brynn Teakle (77 RC) with a dash of Jack Darling (25 RC) – it was about minimising Grundy’s options, trying to ensure he could only work into a small area.
Meanwhile for North’s midfielders, knowing their ruck would rarely, if ever win the hit-out, it was all about reading and reacting to Grundy and the Swans’ midfielders rather than a proactive approach. If it sounds inherently defensive, that’s because it is. There was really no other option for North.
But, to take a slight detour: with a disciplined unit it can sometimes make the game a little easier to plan for because there’s less of an unknown. Everyone at ground level is waiting for the same tap, which isn’t the case in an even battle, or if one ruckman has a slight advantage.
Think back to when Todd Goldstein was in his heyday and how North’s midfielders had the luxury of setting up knowing he’d win the ruck head-to-head most weeks. It allowed the likes of Andrew Swallow, Ben Cunnington, and co to get proactive, playing to strengths and even covering up some weaknesses.
The flip side is if there was a rare week when Goldstein wasn’t on top, North’s midfielders often had to pivot and play in a fashion out of the norm. There was no danger of needing a pivot on Saturday because the brief was simple: work off Grundy, defend first, then try and flip the game around.
In the first few minutes around contests it looked like North were all at sea, to put it mildly. But after reading Sydney’s first-choice patterns at stoppages – for instance largely looking for defensive side hits to start possession chains – they were able to adjust.
A clearance goes in two stages:
1) First possession: Think of this as basically the first time a team gains control of the ball
2) The actual clearance
It means a team can have lots of ‘first possessions’ that never actually turn into clearances, but rather a secondary stoppage or even a turnover.
Sydney had 35 first possessions up to half time, but 29 clearances while North had 24 first possessions and 24 clearances. Of course the two stats don’t perfectly line up; teams can have a clearance without a first possession, and vice versa. But the overall point is to illustrate how North were defending relatively well from an area of weakness.
After those first three early Sydney goals started at stoppages, North were able to clamp down and only concede four more scoring shots (2.2) from the source for the rest of the half, with six shots themselves (1.5).
For the entire third quarter, the trend was the same but at about half speed. North were defending well but still couldn’t figure out how to kick and handball correctly (more on that in the next section), Sydney were off the boil and predictable in their patterns, and the game more or less ground to a halt. It wasn’t exactly the most exciting half an hour of all time, although compared to Richmond-Essendon last week it was still champagne football.
After the last break is where it turned around as Sydney made their adjustments North couldn’t go with.
When a team is undermanned at set plays – i.e. North at stoppages against Sydney – what helps is the favoured side working as predictably as possible in a limited fashion. It’s exactly what the Swans have been under Dean Cox for most of the year, and it continued in the ruck and around stoppages up until three quarter time.
Unfortunately for North, Sydney picked the last quarter to introduce some unpredictability into their game and open space up. Two examples of many:
1) 30 seconds into the term at a forward 50 stoppage, Grundy whacked it out into space where Heeney ran onto it…
2) A few minutes later, Peter Ladhams (plot twist!) grabbed it and rushed a forward kick while Swans ran forward of the ball…
This aggressive change threw North because so late in the game, with the scoreboard what it was, and outgunned in crucial areas, there was no time left to find a solution.
The final quarter clearance count was 13-5 Sydney’s way. It translated to territory, nearly 60 percent of the term in the Swans’ forward half, and they kicked three of their five goals for the term from stoppage.
North tried their best, and what they did worked for a long while. But Sydney, fuelled by their advantage, had another gear North simply couldn’t reach. It made for a helpless feeling through most of the last quarter.
Albeit with the nagging feeling something more could have been made of the first three quarters if…
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For those who have missed it, the last five North Melbourne match analysis pieces on The Shinboner, plus…
The 2025 Team Structures Page
North Melbourne’s Round 18 analysis v Melbourne
North Melbourne’s Round 17 analysis v Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne’s Round 16 analysis v Hawthorn
North Melbourne’s Round 15 analysis v Carlton
North Melbourne’s Round 14 analysis v Fremantle
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The effect of turnovers
Unfortunately the ball use wasn’t up to AFL standard, team wide. There’s no point singling out individuals, or single clips. Not only does it not achieve anything, it’s also not the point of this section.
In the Bulldogs match analysis, the turnovers largely came from decision making. When to take the aggressive option, when to take the safe option, reading the situation and reacting appropriately.
At the SCG it was just the simplest of skill errors, time and time again thwarting any chance for North to put sustained scoreboard pressure on the Swans.
It was a minor miracle Sydney weren’t able to easily transition in the first half, because they were given ample opportunity. The blame/praise for that not happening can be equally split between the Swans’ method and North’s forward half defence, the visitors at least able to defend moderately well after back breaking turnovers, helped by the home side’s inability to consistently take the right options.
But overall, there’s only so much that can be done when the most basic of turnovers prevents what should be the simplest of scoring opportunities.
Looking at a broader sample size now, more than just Saturday at the SCG: without being able to get into the minds of coaches, I’d be willing to bet it’s a large reason we don’t see many histrionics from the box.
The understanding of no magic trick allowing a click of the fingers to instantly improve skills, along with what’s surely a rock bottom level of confidence amongst the squad, lends itself to a gentle approach even if it’s not the way many in the outer would want to approach it.
We can see it in the way the team makes mistakes, either with or without the ball, in rapid fire succession. They’re tell-tale signs of ‘here we go again’ without the collective strength to nip it in the bud immediately.
How that gets fixed, the combination of strength between the ears translating to improvement and execution of skill sets, is the multi-million-dollar question and probably what defines the short-term future. Otherwise the season fades out much like the rest this decade.
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For those who have missed it, the last five Notebook entries on The Shinboner, plus…
The 2025 Team Structures Page
Brisbane testing tweaks, a crack in Collingwood’s midfield: Round 18’s Notebook
Essendon’s changes, Adelaide in the air: Round 17’s Notebook
Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, GWS health checks: Round 16’s Notebook
Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast health checks: Round 15’s Notebook
Collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond, Sydney health checks: Round 14’s Notebook
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