The Notebook returns to normal service after every team’s mid-season health check.
This week’s two topics:
1) The changes Essendon made coming out of their bye, and how it helped them stick with and arguably outplay Gold Coast in general play through three quarters
2) Adelaide’s focus on dominating in the air, the tweaks they’ve made to help boost it even further, and why it feels like a key part of a September style
Note: The original plan was for it to be three topics, because on the surface Sydney having the first nine centre bounce clearances, and five goals from centre bounce in the first half overall, seemed like a topic ripe to dig into. But a second look through the tape showed a handful of the clearances weren’t particularly clean, or even damaging, with the goals coming in secondary phases after the clearance that can’t be tied back to the centre. So it’s just the two topics today.
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The changes Essendon made after the bye
“They obviously went to work over the break, and they played a little bit differently as compared to (before the bye). Normally they’re low pressure, low contest. Today was high pressure and they were going forward a lot more as compared to the ‘backwards hand, backwards hand, backwards kick’. I thought they looked a different side.”
Those were Damien Hardwick’s words about Essendon after the Suns outlasted them on Saturday at Marvel Stadium.
Whether a team makes notable changes to their style, or personnel, after a mid-season bye has always fascinated me. More often than not it’s the only time during a season a coaching staff can step outside their bubble to reevaluate whether their core principles are working as intended.
Essendon’s changes, as brought up unprompted by Hardwick, all worked well against Gold Coast, to the point where they were arguably the better side until running out of legs with about a quarter to go.
Change 1: More contests
A team’s contested possession rate is a simple measure, tracking the percentage of a team’s total possessions that are contested. For example, if a team has 100 total possessions and 30 of them are contested, then they have a 30 percent contested possession rate.
It’s not necessarily a bad thing to have a low contested possession rate, a good thing to have a high rate, or vice versa, given the context of each game. By and large, a lower rate means a team sets up to play a more uncontested game.
Heading into Saturday, Essendon had the lowest contested possession rate in the competition at 34.1 percent. Against the Suns, that rate leapt to 40.2 percent, a level that would be top of the league if maintained over the full year.
A jump that large isn’t a coincidence, especially under the roof at Marvel.
Change 2: More long kicking
Working hand in hand with change 1, if the game is more of a contest than normal, ball use more than likely has to shift along with it.
Up until Saturday, Essendon’s long kick/short kick split sat at about 42 percent long to 58 percent short. Against the Suns it was an exact 50-50 split, with a clear focus on giving the three tall forwards as many chances as possible. Brad Scott confirmed as much post-match:
“We thought we’d hung our forwards out a little bit to dry at times (pre-bye) … when we’re out facing goal, we want to give our forwards a bit more of an opportunity. That was a pleasing development in our game.”
Result: Defending more from the front half
Obviously those changes wouldn’t have worked if the midfield more than held their own for three quarters, which seems like a point we shouldn’t just skim over, but here we are. Nevertheless, as a result of all the above, Essendon had more opportunities to defend in their front half.
The Bombers had 55 inside 50s against the Suns, a total they’ve exceeded only two other times this year. There was 59 against Port Adelaide in Round 3 and 58 against Hawthorn in Round 1, both games where they still had something resembling a full side.
Those extra entries against the Suns, combined with the tweaks to make it a more contested game, meant Essendon were able to lock it closer to goal for longer. In the first three quarters, Gold Coast were only able to transition from defensive 50 to attacking 50 five times from 24 attempts. For what is generally a good transition side, it was significantly under their normal rate and another tick for Essendon’s tweaks.
While all the noticeable changes didn’t end in an Essendon win, they clearly had their intended effect of freshening up the side while the cavalry remains on the sidelines.
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For those who have missed it, the last five Notebook entries on The Shinboner, plus…
The 2025 Team Structures Page
Brisbane, Essendon, Geelong, GWS health checks: Round 16’s Notebook
Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, West Coast health checks: Round 15’s Notebook
Collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond, Sydney health checks: Round 14’s Notebook
St Kilda and Fremantle’s health checks: Round 13’s Notebook
Carlton, Port, and Bulldogs health checks: Round 12’s Notebook
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Adelaide’s aerial focus
Maybe this isn’t the right week to write about it given Adelaide were either slightly outpointed or near-level in contested and intercept mark stats against Melbourne, but watching the Crows is seeing a side more comfortable than most to play the game in the air.
Consider the following for 2025 to date:
– No team takes more intercept marks than Adelaide
– No team has a greater intercept mark differential than Adelaide
– No team takes more contested marks than Adelaide
The signs were there right from the start of the year – it was even covered in Round 1’s Notebook (he says triumphantly).
A couple of extra structural tweaks have allowed the system to evolve further. While Dan Curtin started the year as basically a fourth tall forward and relief winger, since Round 11 he’s moved into a primary wing position.
It’s strengthened aerial presence around the ground, given a wing’s role to get up and down one side. Then Curtin’s spot in the forward rotation has been replaced with another ground level player; largely a mix of Zac Taylor, Luke Pedlar, or more forward time for Izak Rankine depending on the week.
Adelaide’s forward half game without the ball has been supercharged as a result, making it much tougher for opponents to exit via ground or air. Since Round 11, Adelaide ranks first – by a considerable distance – in fewest defensive 50 to attacking 50 transitions allowed (by percentage).
And while digging to find numbers to support (or disprove) the eye test, I discovered this: No one, in the league, has taken more forward half intercept marks than Curtin since his proper move to the wing.
On each line – defence, on-ball, forward – there are multiple Crows who can beat their opponents aerially in an offensive or defensive manner, with arguably the best midfielder over his head in Jordan Dawson to cap it off.
It feels like the key point of a game style designed to hold up in September. When games get tighter and space is at a premium, Adelaide know they can trust their structure to either mop up – or get on the end of – kicks not delivered with the same precision we see in May or June.
There are plenty of pieces coming together, making Saturday’s contest with the Western Bulldogs a tasty affair.
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For those who have missed it, the last five North Melbourne match analysis pieces on The Shinboner, plus…
The 2025 Team Structures Page
North Melbourne’s Round 17 analysis v Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne’s Round 16 analysis v Hawthorn
North Melbourne’s Round 15 analysis v Carlton
North Melbourne’s Round 14 analysis v Fremantle
North Melbourne’s Round 13 analysis v West Coast
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