Saturday was North Melbourne’s most important game of 2025 to date. Last time they faced Carlton, earlier this year on Good Friday, it was their worst performance in Alastair Clarkson’s time as senior coach.
Nine weeks later, against the same outfit, it was a test to see if North’s progress since that dirty day was real.
It was a test they passed well for most of the first three quarters, before stopping to a walk in the last.
Before we get to reasons for the last quarter fadeout, there’s plenty to get through setting the scene for the afternoon, along with a focus on the first three quarters.
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In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice, even though there’s not a large AFL community yet.
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The personnel changes from Good Friday of Round 6 to Saturday of Round 15 don’t reveal too much of an overhaul, apart from aiming to have more drive from half back:
Defence
In: Toby Pink, Colby McKercher, Riley Hardeman
Out: Aidan Corr, Finn O’Sullivan, Zac Fisher
Midfield
In: Finn O’Sullivan (wing)
Out: Darcy Tucker (wing), Colby McKercher (wing)
Forward
In: Robert Hansen
Out: N/A (two primary wingers instead of McKercher splitting between third wing/forward)
What has changed is a greater focus on structures and setups around contests, and the flow on effects it’s caused in general play.
Up until Good Friday, North were struggling at contests, which meant their setups around the ground were too often under pressure and starting from a position of weakness. Then there were compound errors on top of that, leading to the subpar performances.
Since then the improvement around contests has led to starting from a position of strength more often and there’s been fewer compound errors. It’s not as if North has suddenly turned into a defensive juggernaut, but the trend speaks for itself:
| North Melbourne in 2025 | Round 1-6 | Round 7-14 (pre-Carlton) |
| Contested possession differential | -28 | +69 |
| Clearance differential | -4 | +70 |
| Points conceded per 100 stoppage losses | 119.3 | 100.4 |
| Points conceded per 100 turnovers | 101.6 | 59.5 |
So even though North are still conceding at a high rate from stoppage losses, for instance, it hasn’t proven as damaging because they’re winning more of them with a relatively sustainable method most of the time.
The most noticeable improvement has been the work defensively from turnovers, going from very poor to genuinely good. Part of it has been due to a shift in ball use, moving into areas harder for the opposition to quickly counter from, but most of it should be credited to a much better defensive effort to quickly snap into place after losing the ball.
In the first quarter against Carlton, it was something North were inconsistent at carrying out. Much of the Blues’ offensive method, if it can be called a method, is based around controlling the ball through uncontested marks. Take it away and they have little else but to start a game they’ve often executed well. The best first quarter side in the competition in fact, 11 wins to only three losses and a point differential of +168.
North were unable to stop Carlton having a +20 uncontested mark advantage to quarter time, along with +15 uncontested possessions. Taking away North’s strengths of their last few weeks, it was a big reason why they were pinned in their defensive half for long periods to start the game. Much of the first quarter can be put down to Carlton playing well rather than North playing poorly.
There weren’t any obvious signs of what was about to come in the middle two quarters…
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For those who have missed it, the last five North Melbourne pieces on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
North Melbourne’s Round 14 analysis v Fremantle
North Melbourne’s Round 13 analysis v West Coast
North Melbourne at the mid-season bye
North Melbourne’s Round 11 analysis v Collingwood
North Melbourne’s Round 10 analysis v Richmond
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In the first quarter, Carlton had 36 uncontested marks and were +15 for uncontested possessions. In the second quarter, Carlton had 22 uncontested marks (six of them in the first two minutes) and were -33 for uncontested possessions.
It stemmed from North turning it into a more contested game, getting on top around those contests, and then significantly increasing the pressure if Carlton did get the ball:
| Q1 | Q2 | |
| Total stoppages | 10 | 32 |
| Contested possessions | +1 Carlton | +13 North |
| North’s pressure factor | 162 | 184 |
It was noticeable how North shut down the space Carlton were good enough to earn in the first quarter, leaving the Blues with minimal options to move the ball forward.
Of the many examples visible for those lucky enough to be at the ground, the one that translated best to broadcast view was this one from about midway through the term. After Matt Carroll picked it up on half back, he was forced to go right back to Jack Silvagni.
Then, with no obvious options, Silvagni was forced to go sideways again with a risky chip to Jacob Weitering. To cap it off, Weitering, also with few choices, was baited into a wide kick by Finn O’Sullivan, who streamed across to chop it out. It’s good, smart defending that was rarely happening earlier in the season.
Speaking of things that weren’t happening earlier in the season, and particularly not on Good Friday, the passage that ends in Colby McKercher’s first goal is a prime example.
When we’re talking about how North have made games more contested, improved that contest work, and then successfully worked off the back of it, little illustrates it better than this.
From the stoppage, it looks as if Carlton take advantage once George Hewett takes possession. But he’s forced into a rushed handball because of Luke Parker’s positioning, who’s held space well on the outside. The exits are blocked, so Hewett’s handball goes to an under-pressure Sam Docherty as he’s hassled by George Wardlaw.
Jacob Konstanty recognises it’s his time to come up into the contest from his forward position, at the same time McKercher realises it’s time for him to switch from defensive mode to attack, streaming through off the back of play. His pace allows a clean shot on goal, which he converts.
All the above happens in no more than 15 seconds, but it shows a much, much better understanding of setups and structures than we saw earlier in the year:
Then as we’ve seen a little more often over the last couple months, when North gets on top with this style of play, it forces teams to try something different. That naturally opens up the possibilities to create more turnovers, especially against a team like Carlton who don’t have many layers to their ball movement.
Late in the third quarter, Carlton looked to try and create some run and carry through handballing and taking it into different areas than their normal. At this stage North were still switched on and aggressive, which means they were able to take advantage.
A good defence makes it feel like the walls are closing in on the offence. Visually this passage leading to Harry Sheezel’s goal is a nice representation of how it looks in action.
Hewett looks up, tries to start something, and is greeted with … next to nothing. A couple of subpar disposals later, and the rest is history.
It was a great cap on two quarters that validated North’s progress since the dirty day on Good Friday.
Unfortunately, as it turned out there was still one quarter to go…
For those who have missed it, the last five Notebook entries on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
Collingwood, Gold Coast, Richmond, and Sydney health checks: Round 14’s Notebook
St Kilda and Fremantle’s health checks: Round 13’s Notebook
Carlton, Port, and Bulldogs health checks: Round 12’s Notebook
Teams moving in different directions: Round 11’s Notebook
How to get 49 disposals in a game: Round 10’s Notebook
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*That* last quarter
Things looked great at three quarter time. North had a 46-point lead, they’d kicked 12 of the last 15 goals, and everything was in their keeping.
Then in the last quarter…
- Disposals: 107-87 Carlton
- Contested possessions: 49-26 Carlton
- Clearances: 11-5 Carlton
- Inside 50s: 19-4 Carlton
- Time in forward half: 75% Carlton
- Score: 35-0 Carlton
Right from the outset it was evident North had, whether subconsciously or consciously, shut up shop. Before digging deeper, it’s important to acknowledge how foreign a concept this lead was for North.
Since Alastair Clarkson arrived at Arden St, there have been only three games* where North have led by 20+ at three quarter time:
+46: Round 15, 2025 v Carlton
Result: Win by 11
+31: Round 14, 2024 v Collingwood
Result: Loss by 1
+27: Round 13, 2024 v West Coast
Result: Win by 9
Considering game two on that list had already changed in flow by three quarter time, and game three was relatively even in general play but the Eagles had kicked a remarkable 2.15, there’s a fair case Saturday was the first time North had experienced an afternoon like this under Clarkson.
(*For the record there have only been 23 games North has led at three quarter time this decade, with nine of them by 3+ goals in case anyone was wondering)
As we’ve talked about earlier, much of North’s improvement has started from contests, either winning more or lessening the effects of losses. The balance between attacking and defending in tight has noticeably upgraded. From there, the ball use has largely been stripped back a touch but still with a decent balance between attack and protect.
In the last quarter against Carlton, the ‘attacking’ part around contest completely dissipated, replaced by a reactive, defensive mindset. For example, at this centre bounce we see two Blues moving and all the Roos flat-footed:
Then because of that reactiveness around contests, if North did get the ball back it was nearly always in their defensive half. Of their 19 possession gains in the last quarter, 17 were in the defensive half. Only two were in the forward half and unsurprisingly, zero in forward 50.
From there it was on North’s ball movement to get them out of danger, but the mindset around contests was also apparent in possession. The lack of movement meant the balance between attack and defence often boiled down to ‘chip it around for a while without gaining metres, go long to a contest and lose it’.
As weird as it is to type, and say out loud, not to mention what it says about the past few years, North didn’t know how to play with a significant lead. It had never happened to this extent over the last few years.
Playing with a lead late (less than a 46-point lead, to be fair) is a tough balance to strike for most teams. Even Collingwood had their struggles with it last year at times. In the bigger picture though, it’s a positive to see that learning happening in real time – see Harry Sheezel’s comments after the game – and it’s something that can hopefully be put into practice at some point in the near future.
From here it’s a tough fortnight for North. Next up is a trip to Launceston to face Hawthorn, followed by a five-day break into the 100th V/AFL year celebrations against the Western Bulldogs, a team that has routinely controlled the head-to-head clashes recently. They’ll provide two different challenges to what North has experienced over the last few weeks.