Cautious optimism: Round 8, 2025 v Essendon

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Of course losing a game by three points – a game there for the taking – isn’t something to celebrate.

However. However. The third quarter, when North stormed back into the game with five goals to one, had me sitting up and taking notice. It was by far the most notable quarter of North’s season to date.

It’s because the system they used to get back in the game was something we hadn’t seen much of to date in 2025, offensive and defensive goals coalescing to produce a balance that was … well, balanced. It’ll be the main focus of today’s post.

But before we get to why the third quarter caught the eye, first we have to set the scene using the first half – and references to North’s prior Marvel Stadium games for the year – as context.

And there also won’t be much about the final quarter, because it was two exhausted teams looking like the boxers who punched themselves out before Homer Simpson tapped them over. It doesn’t tell us too much in the bigger picture, which is what these match analysis pieces are about most of the time.

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The Patreon is up and running once again for 2025, which you can find right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.

In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice, even though there’s not a large AFL community yet.

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Round 1 against the Western Bulldogs introduced the topic of inside v outside, and it’s been a near constant ever since.

Most teams – not all, but most – come in with a similar blueprint against North: Hold your shape on the outside when the ball is in dispute, then if you win possession you own the outside, using that space to quickly go around North’s structure which is usually set skinny, by design.

‘Skinny’ sounds like fancy terminology, but it’s just another way to describe how North have wanted to set up the ground this year, basically condensing it* into a smaller space. This is a wild, wild, wild oversimplification, but teams tend to favour one of two methods offensively, with North the latter:

a) Keep width in play at all times, perhaps sacrificing a bit of contest work but gaining it back through uncontested strength
b) Condense the play through contest, then win those contests and use the space after that

(*Which is another reason why North were able to match up well against Port Adelaide after quarter time last week)

Of course the best teams can do both if needed, but we’re a long way from reaching that point of discussion on this blog.

In theory, by North condensing the ground with a contest focus, it makes defending easier when they lose the ball. Play in a smaller area = swarm and pressure = force stoppage or turnover.

The two issues with that arise when there are clean contest losses and/or the setup is too small to begin with. It allows opponents to easily flick the ball outside and then they’re off to the races with minimal resistance.

Throughout the first half, as both sides loaded up with players on the defensive side of stoppages and contests, there were a string of passages which would have been perfect to illustrate if we had full width vision.

Unfortunately we don’t have that, so we’re left having to trust my word and only one clip to annotate. This will run at half speed to allow time to read the text. One day I’ll make these look professional, but until then here’s what we have for today, illustrating what happens when the aforementioned two issues arise simultaneously:

When the setup isn’t working well for North – through contest losses, being too slow to snap into defensive mode, or any other number of issues – it basically becomes Russian Roulette: you better win the ball, or you’re in strife. The ability to score off turnover isn’t there because the setup, when it’s not working, places a handbrake on it.

To half time, if my manual watch + collation of AFL Match Centre stats is correct, North had scored a grand total of two (2) points from 23 turnovers. Even though the second quarter read one goal each on the scoreboard, it should have comfortably been Essendon’s term.

Coming out of half time on the coverage, although Alastair Clarkson accurately pointed out the issues…

“They’re winning the ball on the open side at the minute. We’ve got to try and take that off them and get some territory ourselves.”

…I didn’t expect the adjustments to work quite so well.

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For those who have missed it, the last five posts on The Shinboner, plus…

2025’s Team Structures Page
Midfielders in tandem, midfielders progressing: Round 7’s Notebook
North Melbourne’s Round 7 analysis v Port Adelaide
Veterans, offence, and scoring: Round 6’s Notebook
North Melbourne’s Round 6 analysis v Carlton
Checking in on the 0-5 teams: Round 5’s Notebook

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In the first half when North won possession, they largely moved through straight lines instead of using width.

Early on there were signs of a willingness to shift method offensively, when Luke Parker had a sweeping sideways handball, followed by Caleb Daniel, and then a kick from Colby McKercher to complete the switch.

This particular passage didn’t come to anything, but it was a sign:

And then defensively, the team defence, recognising Essendon were looking to use width at every possible opportunity, shifted to cover it instead of dedicating so many resources to smaller spaces.

So even when Ben McKay won this contest against Nick Larkey and immediately shifted it wide, the reverse angle shows North ready to defend against Essendon’s plans. Seven possessions later, the end result was a ball up on the wing, as shown here in 1.5x speed:

The offence and defence started to combine more and more as the quarter wore on. Sometimes it’s just the perceived threat from offensive positioning that frees up space, and it doesn’t have to be a large switch to break play open. Subtle changes of angles can be all that’s needed.

After North force the turnover in this clip, it’s just one sideways handball from Tom Powell to free Riley Hardeman up. As Hardeman streams through half back, Nic Martin knows he can’t commit because Parker is over his back shoulder running in a threatening area.

Even though Larkey gives away the free for a nudge in the back, it’s an illustration of the shift North made after half time in their offence:

On the other side of the ball, there was one particular passage from a contest that had me clapping like a seal. Unfortunately the broadcast view didn’t catch all of it, so I’ll have to fill in the blanks.

Earlier in the piece we discussed how North’s base setup was very narrow behind the ball in the first half, allowing Essendon to win possession, change angles, and own the space. From this stoppage, Tom Powell starts on the defensive side of the ball.

As Essendon win possession, and Powell slides out of frame – what a coincidence the key moments come out of frame and I’m asking for trust describing what happens next – he starts to move centrally to cover width. He understands the adjustment, what Essendon want to do, and how to defend against it.

Then, equally as quickly, as Xavier Duursma gathers possession, Powell realises it’s his turn to come back in and press up. Duursma’s handball to Will Setterfield provides Powell with the chance to tackle and force the turnover:

It’s a little bit clunky. It’s not what we’d call a top four defence. But it’s a sign that the message has to be sinking in, because this passage, along with the third quarter as a whole, was the first time I’d seen offence and defence work together this season, in a way that felt real.

Obviously it’s starting from a low base. Highlighting progression in such an early part of the chain must look odd for fans of 15 or 16 other clubs. But you can’t skip steps and hope for success either.

Today’s piece isn’t supposed to portray that it’s all sunshine and lollipops from here on out, or that no one should be frustrated with Thursday night’s result. Especially when the Brisbane game next week will be like playing in a whole different league, and who knows what carries over when facing a far, far stronger opponent.

There are still plenty of questions to ask, and plenty of lingering questions that need answering, which we’ll no doubt cover together over the next few matches.

But positive structural signs two weeks in a row has to count for something. Ideally the frustration from the losses are combined with the improved performances to spur a further step forward.

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You can subscribe to the Patreon for 2025 right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.

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