It feels right to start 2025 on The Shinboner by examining every team’s win line for the season.
These lines are accurate as of February 14, coming from either Sportsbet, Bet365, or TAB. If a team’s number fluctuates between providers, the listed line has a * next to it with further explanation underneath.
A reminder that each team’s pick comes with one of four highly scientific levels of confidence: none, some, lots, or lock.
It’s all based on a relatively normal injury run from here on out, even though there’s always one or two teams whose year is ruined by availability.
The recurring theme here will be some variation of: ‘Will <coach x> still be there in 2026 if <team> goes under this line?’
And throughout the piece you’ll notice references to the Look Ahead. Much like last season, every team will get a strictly on-field big picture style question to set up their campaign.
This year’s difference is the Look Ahead will be split into three parts (minus North Melbourne, for obvious stand-alone reasons). All parts will drop this week, with Patreon subscribers to receive early access. Speaking of Patreon…
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The Patreon is up and running once again for 2025, which you can find right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice.
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Adelaide: 11.5*
(*11.5 on Sportsbet, 12.5 on Bet365 and TAB)
Last season: 8-14-1
What was that again about a team’s line doubling as a referendum on the coach?
Adelaide have the tools on their list to relegate their one-dimensional players to the fringes at best, or even out of the 22 completely.
James Peatling’s addition to the on-ball mix to complement the likes of Jordan Dawson, Izak Rankine, and Jake Soligo; Nick Murray fit for a full season along the rapidly improving key defensive unit; Riley Thilthorpe set to take the leap injury denied us in 2024.
It just depends on whether they’re set up to play in a way that accentuates their strengths, rather than conservatism that ends up highlighting weaknesses. Let’s not relitigate that in-depth when it’s mid-February.
Pre-season will tell us a lot, and signs from their internal match sim last Friday were promising. The current prediction could still change sharply before Round 1.
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Lots
Brisbane: 14.5
Last season: 14-8-1
This section is basically an ode to Joe Daniher and the immense hole he’ll leave post-retirement.
Daniher’s absence will force Brisbane to change plenty of what they want to do offensively. There is no like for like replacement available, which leads to an inevitable adjustment period.
Maybe they figure it out instantly. It wouldn’t surprise if the adjustment period is brief. But as it stands, I’m predicting it’ll take a little longer into the season before they figure the offensive side of their game out.
There’ll be a greater section on this in the Lions’ section of the Look Ahead.
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: Some
Carlton: 13.5*
(*13.5 on Sportsbet, 14.5 on TAB, currently unlisted on Bet365)
Last season: 13-10
There’s probably a level of bias in this section. I really enjoy watching Carlton play, for their constant push and pull between elite top end talent while covering their (sometimes self-inflicted) flaws elsewhere in team construction and playing style.
For example: Their reported interest in Dan Houston last year to strengthen play from the back half. But their on-field set up doesn’t allow half backs to take a primary role in ball movement. So are they chasing their tail or recognising a change had to be made? But they have capable half backs already (with Ollie Hollands set to be added to the list this year after Nic Newman’s long-term injury). Round and round we go.
But for all the back and forth, before the bottom fell out of their 2024 due to injury, losing five of their last seven home and away games, they were on track to sail over this line. If injuries don’t strike again (big if), there shouldn’t be much age-related decline from the list. Overs it is.
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Some
Collingwood: 13.5
Last season: 12-9-2
Collingwood’s season hinges on a fairly simple question: Can their off-season additions offset the natural age-related decline surely just around the corner for a number of their key players?
Dan Houston at half back and Harry Perryman on-ball are significant upgrades over John Noble and <insert rotating midfielder here> alongside Nick Daicos and Jordan De Goey, if the latter two are fit.
Last year they still ended with 12 wins (and two draws) despite a significant injury crisis. Their best 22 in 2025 is better than 2024 if there’s not a sudden decline.
To that point, there’s the collective of players aged 30+ to consider, with little in the way of ready-made depth behind them if that decline does happen. It takes threading the needle to a new level, but their upgrades plus the intangible of last year’s disappointment should help in 2025. After that though…
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Some
Essendon: 9.5
Last season: 11-11-1
In his 11 full seasons of senior AFL coaching, Brad Scott’s teams have only dipped under this line once (2017, 6-16 record).
He’s an undoubted floor raiser, but – and if anyone didn’t see the ‘but’ coming, come on now – this year feels set up as a ‘one step back to take two steps forward’ year. Scott even hinted as much to the Herald Sun early in January.
(In this case it’s words backing up actions, not two different things as I missed with Essendon in 2024)
Most of the experienced heads have departed*, giving more runway for the younger types to grow and mid-20s group to take the reins.
(*Jake Stringer: 23 games, Jake Kelly: 20 games, Dyson Heppell: 18 games, Nick Hind: 15 games, albeit seven as either starting sub or subbed on, Todd Goldstein: 14 games and still on the list but clearly third choice now)
20 games into Isaac Kako, a similar total for Nate Caddy, giving Archie Perkins and Nik Cox the room to figure out what their ceiling is, crossing all the fingers and toes in the world that Zach Reid can stay healthy; there’s eight to ten players whose individual fortunes will dictate Essendon’s in 2025, for better or worse.
It should make for a crystal-clear list picture at the end of the year, along with being one of the most intriguing teams to watch develop this year, as long as powerbrokers have enough patience to let it play out and deal with any lumps if they come.
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: None
Fremantle: 13.5
Last season: 12-10-1
Number two in my self-appointed, ‘Will <coach x> still be there in 2026 if <team> goes under this line?’ series.
The line started at 12.5 and quickly went up to 13.5, which says a bit about how expectations are building, externally at least.
Natural improvement from their younger players – Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy making for a quality one-two forward punch – the addition of Shai Bolton, and the midfield potency, it all should combine for a team that has the ability to regularly post triple figure scores.
The midfield is there, the defensive principles are there; as long as there’s a nice balance between defence and attack, everything on paper points to a top four finish…
If they’re set up well. Yet even for that big if, which is yet to be accounted for, they still only need two more wins than last year to pass the 2025 line. Surely.
(If they don’t pass it, they’ll probably have a new coach. And I’ll be sitting here at this time next year typing something similar about how their over is a lock.)
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Lock
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For those who missed the start of season announcement, you can find it here. And the schedule between now and the start of the season is…
| Post | Patreon access | Public access |
| General 2025 announcement | Live | Live |
| Over/under win total | Live | 18th Feb |
| Look Ahead, Part 1 | 18th Feb | 19th Feb |
| Look Ahead, Part 2 | 19th Feb | 20th Feb |
| Look Ahead, Part 3 | 20th Feb | 21st Feb |
| NMFC Match Sim Analysis | 23rd Feb | |
| The Notebook, Match Sim | 24th Feb | 25th Feb |
| Continuity Rankings | 26th Feb | 27th Feb |
| NMFC v West Coast Analysis | 2nd Mar | |
| The Notebook, Pre-Season | 3rd Mar | 4th Mar |
| Team Tiers, Version 1 | 5th Mar | 6th Mar |
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Geelong: 13.5
Last season: 15-8
It’s Geelong. We know how this goes.
(The only reason to not have it as a lock if is Jeremy Cameron has a long-term injury)
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Lock
Gold Coast: 11.5
Last season: 11-12
The previous section was, ‘it’s Geelong’. This one is, ‘it’s Gold Coast’.
They don’t earn the benefit of the doubt until they prove it, even though on paper they should be sailing over.
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: Some
GWS: 14.5
Last season: 15-8
For most of last season, GWS’ best football was the best in the competition. Their issue was maintaining it for long enough.
While the handful of player absences could look worrying on paper, only Perryman* contributed a significant amount in 2024, with Peatling* floating around in a bits and pieces role until late on. It was a shift that arguably changed the balance of their midfield into something different than originally intended, as covered in last year’s Finals Dossier.
(*Which isn’t to say they won’t be good pickups for Collingwood and Adelaide respectively, they should fit like a glove at their new homes)
If they’re to be (at least) two wins worse than last year, it’ll come down to either:
– Mental scarring from the way they lost (twice!) in September, or
– Their ceiling drops while the floor stays relatively low compared to other top teams
The first part is hard to read – and a live possibility – but the second seems like a much easier fix with a sharp coaching group that has GWS playing football the way the league is trending.
Their forward and defensive group is still the envy of most, and it’s only the thought of lingering intangibles – and maybe a worry about on-ball depth – that pushes me away from a lock. Overs it is.
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Lots
Hawthorn: 14.5
Last season: 14-9
Given the way Hawthorn hit the button in the last two-thirds of the season, in theory everything here should trend over…
But, and this is a case where I’m treading tentatively, I have select queries over certain elements of the Hawks’ system and whether it can hold up after a summer of scouting.
There’ll be more to come in their section of the Look Ahead because it’s way too detailed for an over/under column.
And that is called a tease. Stay tuned for (what will probably be) a tortured theory.
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: Some
Melbourne: 11.5
Last season: 11-12
Number three in my self-appointed, ‘Will <coach x> still be there in 2026 if <team> goes under this line?’ series.
Although Melbourne are in the middle of a stealth retool, there’s still enough top end talent to be more than competitive if fitness permits. The Christian Petracca injury is still horrifying this many months later and it’d make perfect sense if it left lingering effects, while Clayton Oliver should be better this year after a 2024 write-off.
Then the hope is for no age-related decline from Max Gawn, who needs to be excellent again, along with Steven May down back. In the latter’s case, it’s the dual-ended dilemma of trying to stop the slight slippage that’s already happened at ground level along with maintaining his level in the air.
Jake Melksham, worryingly important to Melbourne’s forward line, has an equally worrying hamstring injury to set him back right as games loom. And given the forward line is still … what it is (it’s February, let’s wait for some evidence to prove otherwise), enough doubts pop up to think under, just.
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: None
North Melbourne: 5.5
Last season: 3-20
We’ll keep this section brief, because lord knows there’ll be plenty of words on North elsewhere in pre-season, and over the next six months.
In summary: The moves made over the off-season – welcoming Luke Parker, Caleb Daniel and Jack Darling; trading the 2025 first-round draft pick – smacked of a team that wants to start rising.
There were enough pieces figured out over the course of 2024 where it feels like bulk experimentation mode is largely over, mainly settling down into the usual tweaks from here on.
Overs it is.
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Some
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The Create Your Own Depth Chart feature is now part of the List Management suite, all on the $5 tier for Patreon subscribers:
You can subscribe to the Patreon for 2025 right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
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Port Adelaide: 13.5
Last season: 16-7
Number four* in my self-appointed, ‘Will <coach x> still be there if <team> goes under this line?’ series, but also the most interesting team of the quartet. Soon to be quintet.
(*Although in this case it’s, ‘will they fast forward their succession plan to the middle of this season’, but close enough)
As touched on briefly in last year’s musings on Jack Lukosius’ move, Port’s offensive style will have to shift given the list changes, and they have come out admitting as much recently (more on that in the Look Ahead).
It shapes as the key factor for their season. A successful revamp of their offensive method provides more cover to their team defence – which quietly had a very good end to the home and away season before availability and the September monster reared its head – and creates more chances to score. Not to mention a midfield the envy of nearly every other team.
Sometimes it’s just hard to bet against top-end talent in their prime.
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Some
Richmond: 2.5
Last season: 2-21
The consensus wooden spoon pick, this section isn’t necessarily about how Richmond will play (again, more on that in the Look Ahead) but judging whether they’ll win three games.
Teams to win fewer than three games in a season over the last decade:
– 2024: Richmond: 2-21 (historically bad injury run, barely had players)
– 2022: West Coast & North Melbourne: 2-20 (just historically bad)
– 2018: Carlton: 2-20 (green shoots though)
If we’re assuming a relatively normal injury run, as mentioned at the start of this piece, Richmond have to be at the level of the above three teams to go under.
No team goes winless; there’s always a day where the opposition isn’t at the races, along with a day where everything clicks for you. As long as those days don’t merge together, there’s two wins.
All you need is one more good day to go over. Maybe four or five wins is a stretch, but three? Doable.
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Some
St Kilda: 10.5*
(*10.5 at TAB and Bet365, 9.5 at Sportsbet)
Last season: 11-12
A few weeks ago, I was leaning into overs. Another year into some of the young core that’s been building nicely working to offset some (not all) of the departures, Jack Macrae instantly becoming their second-best onballer, Max King fit and potentially overcoming his issues kicking at goal, it all makes sense.
Then the injury news hit. Mattaes Phillipou out long-term, Dougal Howard similar in a defensive unit light on ready-made personnel with Josh Battle’s departure, Liam Henry still a while away from availability working back from his own long-term injury, Rowan Marshall recovering from a stress fracture in his pelvis (which sounds incredibly painful), albeit available for Round 1.
It’s a hell of a lot to overcome, even for a team that flew under the radar to end 2024 with five wins from their last six games.
There’s something building though and this shouldn’t be taken as a rejection of what’s bubbling along. Especially if they hit on their 2024 draft crop.
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: Some
Sydney: 14.5
Last season: 17-6
There’s the intangible of a(nother) heavy Grand Final loss for Sydney to overcome in order to remain in the elite tier of the competition. Famously hasn’t worked out well for them recently!
It’s where the change of coach should have the intended shock effect. On paper, just about everything a team could want for, Sydney possess. The relatively mundane list turnover through the summer indicates their thinking is much the same, most likely looking for internal tweaks to help leap the final hurdle.
There are a few style questions that come from being well scouted, but it’s largely how to react to opponents. That’s a section for the Look Ahead.
Prediction: Over
Level of confidence: Lots
West Coast: 5.5
Last season: 5-18
To borrow a phrase from Essendon’s section, Liam Baker, Jack Graham, and Matt Owies are all floor raisers – handy given West Coast’s habits of falling away in games over recent years.
But Tom Barrass is a bigger loss than those additions for where the Eagles’ list is at, and there’ll be a natural step back as Andrew McQualter takes the side into their next era.
Because for a new coach, and with a fresh start, there’ll be plenty of discovery as McQualter works through his list to find what works and who doesn’t.
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: Some
Western Bulldogs: 12.5
Last season: 14-9
The fifth and final member of the, ‘Will <coach x> still be there in 2026 if <team> goes under this line?’ series.
The Bulldogs were a card-carrying member of the elite tier through the back half of 2024. Although it was their habit of throwing in ill-timed stinkers that neutralised their best play, cost any chance of top four, and meant they ran into a buzzsaw in an Elimination Final.
I was bullish on their 2025 potential … until news trickled out on Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Adam Treloar, and Liam Jones. Add it to Tim English and Aaron Naughton being managed through pre-season and there are five crucial blocks either unavailable to start the season or nursed through to hit the starting line.
The absence could be a silver lining in some areas. Ryley Sanders will surely take a greater role on-ball, Jedd Busslinger to make his long-awaited debut, and more room in the forward line for Sam Darcy to take another leap after his 2024 breakout. Is it physically possible to take a leap after a leap? Kind of like the Super Mario 64 double jump?
Anyway, the point is for a side who has started relatively slowly in each of the last three years – 3-5 in 2024, 2-3 in 2023, 3-5 in 2022 – a combination of underdone and returning players, along with pressure that comes with it, all makes for a recipe for slight slippage.
(And I don’t want this to be right because they’re consistently one of my most intriguing teams to watch)
Prediction: Under
Level of confidence: Some
A summary of picks
| Team | Line | Over or under | Level of confidence |
| Adelaide | 11.5 | Over | Lots |
| Brisbane | 14.5 | Under | Some |
| Carlton | 13.5 | Over | Some |
| Collingwood | 13.5 | Over | Some |
| Essendon | 9.5 | Under | None |
| Fremantle | 13.5 | Over | Lock |
| Geelong | 13.5 | Over | Lock |
| Gold Coast | 11.5 | Under | Some |
| GWS | 14.5 | Over | Lots |
| Hawthorn | 14.5 | Under | Some |
| Melbourne | 11.5 | Under | None |
| North Melbourne | 5.5 | Over | Some |
| Port Adelaide | 13.5 | Over | None |
| Richmond | 2.5 | Over | Some |
| St Kilda | 10.5 | Under | Lots |
| Sydney | 14.5 | Over | Lots |
| West Coast | 5.5 | Under | Some |
| Western Bulldogs | 12.5 | Under | Some |
| The four levels of confidence: none, some, lots, lock | |||
*Note: Parts of this will most likely change before the first match of the season depending on injuries and what’s unveiled during pre-season. If there are changes, they’ll be clearly marked with relevant dates and reasons*
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