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This week’s Notebook features two topics I’ve been hanging out to write about for a while.
We start with a look at how Tom De Koning as sole ruck makes Carlton a better side and unlocks their next step of progression, and then we finish with how Port Adelaide’s system issues were on full display against Brisbane.
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Carlton taking the next step with Tom De Koning
This season, Carlton have played six games with Marc Pittonet in the side and Tom De Koning his deputy ruck, and a further eight with De Koning as the sole ruck and Pittonet out of the side.
It’s enough of a sample size to show the way forward for Carlton is with De Koning taking the reins while Pittonet waits in the wings in case of injury.
In the pre-season and Carlton’s Look Ahead piece, I talked about how the next step for Carlton was finding a way to score from turnovers and lessening their reliance on stoppage control. With De Koning as the sole ruck, the problem is solved – and then some.
Although there are some mitigating factors in the numbers – player availability and opposition strength two of the keys – with De Koning as sole ruck this year, Carlton have been scoring from turnovers at a rate* that would be first in the competition if maintained over a full season and defending after turnovers at a rate that would also be best in the league. All without losing too much of their stoppage edge.
(*In this case, rate meaning points per turnover forced/conceded as a way to level things out, rather than total points scored/conceded)
Because Carlton’s not a strong side with ball movement in transition – and likely never will be barring a drastic change in setup, (all perfectly fine when other avenues of their game are clicking) the key to finding regular scores from their turnover game is getting joy when it happens in their forward half.
They’ve always forced a high number of turnovers – top six in the 2023 home and away season – but too often last year those turnovers just resulted in a lot of grinding away for little reward.
De Koning as the sole ruck alleviates this in a number of ways. In the interest of brevity we’ll stick to what I think are the main three:
1) An extra ball user: For all of Pittonet’s strengths in the ruck, he’s a player who is a very good ruck – and that’s it. He won’t provide a huge amount of value elsewhere, and De Koning changes this equation.
De Koning’s last month speaks for itself as he’s well and truly taken the leap: averaging 23 disposals and 5.2 inside 50s a game. In this example after Carlton force a forward half turnover, Adam Saad is confident enough to find De Koning with the loopy handball, who then turns and finds Harry McKay inside 50.
2) More space for the key forwards: When Pittonet is the lead ruck, at times there’s McKay, Charlie Curnow, and De Koning all jostling for space close to goal.
With just McKay and Curnow, there’s more space to roam, which in turn puts defenders under more pressure. It comes into play most after quick/unexpected turnovers.
Teams almost always keep all their key forwards ahead of the ball. If there’s three of them, it’s trickier to find space at the click of a finger. Obviously still more than doable, but when there’s two of McKay and Curnow’s quality and they both have space, it’s as simple as letting them get to work.
In this example, a couple of simple leads in different directions panics the defence and Curnow gets a free.
3) Perhaps the most fun improvement of the lot: Matchup flexibility. De Koning as the sole ruck opens up a forward line rotation to get creative with, and over the last month it’s been Alex Cincotta as the beneficiary.
When Pittonet suffered a finger injury against Sydney and De Koning took over that role, it coincided with Saad’s return from his hamstring-enforced layoff.
It left no spot for Cincotta in the back seven as it materialised into Carlton’s best mix: Jacob Weitering and Brodie Kemp as the keys, Mitch McGovern as the tweener, Nic Newman and Lachie Cowan as the two general defenders, and Saad alongside Jordan Boyd as the smalls/half backs.
The move by Voss to throw Cincotta to the other end of the ground, playing either as a defensive forward or coming up from there to tag a midfielder, has proved an inspired addition to the mix.
Would that opening have been possible with De Koning playing forward alongside McKay and Curnow, and the three small forwards that have been a staple of nearly every game this year, without cutting out the extra midfield rotation? Highly doubtful.
In pre-season I ended Carlton’s Look Ahead piece by saying this:
“If they do improve their turnover game, and it doesn’t have to be by a drastic amount – just by enough – then sky’s the limit and they’re a genuine premiership contender.”
As it stands they’re clearly the second-best side in the competition and pending fitness they have the tools to stay there – as long as De Koning stays in his current role.
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Port Adelaide’s system faults
Given I’ve watched North Melbourne week-in, week-out over the last few years, I’d like to think I’m a (self-proclaimed) expert in knowing when a heavy loss could have been even worse.
On another day, Port Adelaide’s 79-point loss to Brisbane would have soared into triple figures, so badly out of sorts were the Power in general play. It was a complete system breakdown from start to finish.
Think of it this way: Although an AFL ground is anywhere between 155-170 metres long and 115-140 metres wide, really the game is constantly played in roughly a 90-metre long and 65-metre wide block – give or take a few metres and specific situations – as both teams shift up and down, left and right.
What it means is when a team is defending, they need to first be able to cover that base area mentioned, and from there shift in any direction when required.
Port’s problem against Brisbane, and in a general sense during their downslopes too, is their foundation isn’t close to covering the base area as a starting point. Sometimes their defenders – in this case Brandon Zerk-Thatcher – look for intercepts when they’re not there, breaking the setup and conceding easy ball over the top as a result…
…or they sit back passively and gift possession out of a contest…
…or the general setup isn’t covering the dangerous space at all, stuck too narrow and gifting the middle as a result.
That narrowness also happens when the ball is moving in general play, getting stuck behind the line of the ball when out of possession and left susceptible to simple shifts of angle.
The way Port Adelaide defend would be a great way to stop … Port Adelaide. The Power use the corridor eons more than any other side, and it’s almost as if their defence is set up to stop teams doing the same.
So when teams like Brisbane, mature and clicking in their own offensive setup since the bye, come up against the same defence they’ve handled consistently in recent years, it’s a straightforward solution. It’s not even full switches, just slight shifts on subtle angles, time and time again.
In this example coming out of the stoppage, we see the Power defence shade behind the line of the ball and inboard after the Brisbane clearance falls to Kai Lohmann. So Lachie Neale and Jarrod Berry simply move to the outside for an easy continuation of the chain and short kick inside 50. It’s a training run.
While all the chatter about Port’s players running harder offensively than defensively is correct, the bigger issue is all these system breakdowns highlighted above.
Even when the good defensive teams concede, there’s a purpose to everything they do, and everyone moves in sync. Errors are easily fixed because those units know exactly what they’re supposed to be doing.
The four clips used today show four different mistakes and players not on the same planet as each other, let alone same wavelength.
Port can get away with this against the lower teams because their top talent is better than most, and next to impossible to stop when things are going their way.
But once the tide turns – which better teams have the capability to do – it’s why they struggle against the top tier.
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For those who have missed previous Notebook entries, here are links to the last five editions:
Brisbane’s movement shift, Bulldogs midfield rotations: FTN, R14
A mid-season stocktake of win predictions: FTN, R11
The unique part of Jordon’s role on Walsh: FTN, R10
Port’s ball movement, Essendon’s floor: FTN, R9
Geelong’s investments and St Kilda’s direction: FTN, R7
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