The Look Ahead will be the staple pre-season content piece, setting a tone for all 18 teams. The plan is to use them as a scene setter for team trends and individuals. In other words, don’t expect predictions, expect topics to be introduced – from both a list build and on-field perspective.
Which Carlton side is more reflective of their true level – the first half of 2023, or the second?
Player contracts
There isn’t a huge amount for Carlton to be worried about in their 2024 crop, with most of that list probably taking care of itself as the year progresses.
On the other hand, 2025’s crop looms as a crucial one. With the likes of Cerra, De Koning, and Weitering all coming to the end of their deals then, there’ll surely be efforts to lock several up before they enter a contract year.
List demographics
The list profile of a team that has loaded up to win and win right now.
Last year roughly 60 percent of Carlton’s minutes were from players between their age 26 and 30 years. Shift that to age 27 and age 31, add Fantasia in who’ll definitely play if fit, and if anything the number will increase slightly in 2024 pending a normal injury run.
It’s not meant to be interpreted as a bad thing, simply a reality of where Carlton believe they’re at. Now’s the time.
Create your own Carlton Depth Chart
Changes in personnel
In:
From other clubs: Elijah Hollands
National Draft: Ashton Moir, Billy Wilson
Delisted Free Agent: Orazio Fantasia
Rookie Draft: Matt Carroll
International Rookie: Rob Monahan
Out: Ed Curnow, Paddy Dow, Zac Fisher, Josh Honey, Lochie O’Brien, Sam Philp, Lachie Plowman
What will Carlton’s offensive balance be between stoppages and turnovers?
As far as I’m concerned, this is what Carlton’s season swings on.
Their run in the second half of the year wasn’t because of any significant change in game style. They doubled down on what they were good at and got an incredible return.
From the Gold Coast game onwards, Carlton’s points from stoppages differentials were nearly three times* as good as the second-best team. It’s an insane, off-the-charts number which is unheard of.
Meanwhile the Blues’ scores from turnovers differentials barely moved the needle, hovering around the lower-mid table* area.
So the question heading into 2024 is two-fold:
a) Can Carlton maintain their stoppage juggernaut at late-2023 levels?
b) If not, will their turnover game step up to cover any slippage?
Reports and interviews over the summer suggest Carlton will continue doubling down (or would that make it quadrupling down after doubling down last year?) on what got them this far. It’s either a brave decision or an attempt to conceal internal focus areas.
For our answer we’ll have to wait for competitive games to begin.
(*numbers provided late last year for a 7AFL post I can’t access to re-confirm for another couple weeks)
What is success for Carlton in 2024?
Cards on the table: If Carlton don’t improve their turnover game, top four is out of reach and they’ll likely settle at the bottom of the eight.
But if they do improve their turnover game, and it doesn’t have to be by a drastic amount – just by enough – then sky’s the limit and they’re a genuine premiership contender.