A nine-point loss. Arguably could have won.
A three-point loss. Arguably should have won.
A draw. Definitely should have won.
Those are North Melbourne’s last three weeks, capped off by taking two points against the reigning premiers in Hobart.
Although Expected Score isn’t everyone’s favourite stat of all time and can be twisted and misread to suit a narrative, on Sunday it showed a North win by 28 points. That, combined with the flow of general play, felt like an accurate indication of where the game ‘should’ have ended up.
It’ll be tough to talk too much about what happened in space during the game, given the preferred camera angle of choice was reverse-zoom-on-player-face-3000.
Thankfully the game was largely clearance and contest which helped mitigate it to an extent. Everyone had really nice hair though.
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Games at Ninja Stadium tend to be at a slightly slower pace than most other grounds, and in particular Marvel Stadium. The surrounding conditions (and at ground level) force it to be that way. There must be some sort of technical, smart explanation for it, but either way that’s how it unfolds.
In practice, what it means is a game with more focus on contests and stoppages, using it for territory and locking in behind that. There are fewer opportunities to get to the outside and smoothly transition. As a point of comparison, there were almost as many stoppages on Sunday as there were in the Carlton-St Kilda game, and the entire second half of that game was a Ross Lyon special of clogging the game up at any cost.
Sunday was a little different in that stoppages came naturally in game flow. And when Lachie Neale waltzed away from the first centre bounce untouched, everyone would have been excused for jumping behind the couch and hiding there:
But after the first few minutes, it appeared as if North were able to settle down both around and behind* the ball, not allowing Brisbane to create too many high-quality chances. 17 Lions inside 50s for four scoring shots within 30 metres felt like a more than acceptable ratio.
(*Usual caveat for today’s piece of not being able to see much outside the tight zoom)
Even the second quarter, where Brisbane kicked the last four goals of the term, it appeared – from what could be seen, anyway – there weren’t too many structural worries. The Lions’ goals seemed to come from either strong individual passages like Eric Hipwood out marking Toby Pink, or North looking to do the right thing but just executing half a step too slow, leaving Hipwood free out the back in the square.
Although the margin was 20 points at half time, North felt close to being in the game. Heading into the round, no team had won more clearances (349) or had a higher clearance differential (+62) than Brisbane.
North had managed to keep the clearance battle dead even to the main break, denying the premiers one of their two main pillars. As a consequence Brisbane’s uncontested game wasn’t quite clicking as usual, despite the overall numbers looking okay:
Brisbane’s uncontested game
– Round 1-8: 226 uncontested possessions + 95 uncontested marks per game
– Round 9, first half: 141 uncontested possessions + 54 uncontested marks
And then after half time, Tristan Xerri went supernova and gave the game a whole new dimension.
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For those who have missed it, the last five North match analysis pieces on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page
North Melbourne’s Round 8 analysis v Essendon
North Melbourne’s Round 7 analysis v Port Adelaide
North Melbourne’s Round 6 analysis v Carlton
North Melbourne’s Round 5 analysis v Gold Coast
North Melbourne’s Round 4 analysis v Sydney
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The story of the second half was Xerri’s complete domination in the ruck. He made Oscar McInerney and Darcy Fort look like they were Matt Flynn trying to contain Max Gawn.
Poor Matt, copping a drive by. But nevertheless, Xerri’s second half by the numbers:
– Disposals: 14
– Contested Possessions: 11
– Clearances: 11
– Score Involvements: 6
– Tackles: 4
– Inside 50s: 3
In the third quarter alone, Xerri’s seven clearances more than doubled Brisbane’s total of three. It’s not an exaggeration to say his dominance changed the feel of the game. More so than anything at ground level, Brisbane were forced to react to Xerri having his way to start stoppages.
Because as a result of this clearance + Xerri domination, the second half was almost entirely on North’s terms. Earlier we looked at Brisbane’s uncontested season stats up to half time of Round 9. Now when we add the second half numbers in, we see the change:
Brisbane’s uncontested game
– Round 1-8: 226 uncontested possessions + 95 uncontested marks per game
– Round 9, first half: 141 uncontested possessions + 54 uncontested marks
– Round 9, second half: 82 uncontested possessions + 30 uncontested marks
And even though the second half inside 50 numbers and total disposals looked fairly close on the surface…
Second half numbers
– Inside 50s: North 29 – 24 Brisbane
– Disposals: North 150 – 151 Brisbane
…the difference came through time in possession and time in forward half.
North came into the round bottom five for time in possession*, and stone last when it came to time in forward half differential for the year, even with the improvements of the preceding fortnight in the latter stat.
(*It’s not always a bad thing to be bottom half for time in possession if you’re an efficient side – for example Geelong ranked 11th last year – but dip too far and weight of numbers eventually overwhelm you)
The second half flipped the script, thanks to the clearance dominance. North had a time in possession advantage that would have ranked first in the league last year if maintained over a full season (small sample size theatre, hello), along with a time in forward half differential which would have ranked top four under the same parameters.
North were able to keep their possession and entries for longer periods, as opposed to Brisbane’s time being more fleeting. It’s a hypothetical which makes it hard to prove definitively, but I’m confident in saying against nearly every other side North would have driven home this advantage to earn a relatively comfortable lead by the time we hit the closing stages.
But because it’s Brisbane, a team so good at making the most of what they get against the flow, it was scores level with a minute to go.
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If you’re glass half full, a look at the final minute shows a play easily fixable the next time North are chasing a close game.
If you’re glass half empty, a look at the final minute shows a winnable game thrown away after not executing a passage which could have almost been done with eyes closed.
Perhaps it’s a sign of the lack of experience in close games manifesting, because after a superb Charlie Comben intercept mark and brilliant quick switch, it almost felt harder for North not to register the winning score.
(Funnily enough, after the Gold Coast win last year I wrote about how there didn’t seem to be any signs of this manifesting. Since then we’ve seen the West Coast collapse and these closing stages. My apologies)
It doesn’t even need any in-depth analysis, because there were a couple of simple options for Jacob Konstanty to take. Either…
a) Force Zac Bailey to commit before looping the handball to Dylan Stephens
b) Immediately handball to Stephens and block Bailey out
And either option is then followed by a deep entry to the top of the square, forcing Brisbane to scramble on their last line while North can push it through for (likely) the game winning score.
But pressure forces rushed decisions, and Konstanty went to the leading Nick Larkey. Jack Payne chopped it out, forcing a throw in and the last 30 seconds played out minus any real scoring chances.
Personally it’s hard to get too worked up about it aside from the standard frustration, mainly because it’s such a simple mistake that can be easily fixed. It’s not as if it was the West Coast meltdown where the entire team malfunctioned for two minutes straight. Just a simple decision that is hard to believe will happen again. Especially from a player (Konstanty) who’s instantly proven a valuable addition.
Ultimately, despite those frustrations at the closing stages, it’s important to take stock of the positives not only against Brisbane, but the preceding two weeks as well. They’ve been three different styles of games, but the defence has held up for large chunks of each.
There are two more games until the mid-season bye, both critical in their own way.
And perhaps most importantly from a mentality mindset, it’s important to remember there’s a fine line between being buoyed by progression and a step backward after three frustrating weeks of not getting the ultimate result.
In a linear world, progression from the last three weeks builds into win number two of the season against Richmond on Sunday. Whether human nature interferes or not, only time will tell.