A fun weekend threw up intriguing tactical topics to discuss in this week’s Notebook.
The three games in this week’s edition:
Essendon v Port Adelaide: How the Bombers changed gears in the last quarter and whether it can spark something with a winnable fortnight coming after their bye
Carlton v Western Bulldogs: Getting to the bottom of the Blues’ late game issues, and what it all comes down to
Hawthorn v GWS: The Hawks’ third quarter shift against the wind, learning from lessons in the first quarter
—
The Patreon is up and running once again for 2025, which you can find right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
Patreon subscribers get early access to the Notebook each week as part of their benefits for signing up.
In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice.
—
Essendon’s late method shift
Although Thursday night was far from a classic – maybe a classic in the opposite of its normal meaning, come to think of it – the final quarter key was how Essendon improved their offensive method.
Of the Bombers’ 16 last-quarter entries, they retained possession on 12* of them, a superb effort under any circumstances and even more so considering what had happened in the three prior quarters.
(*Tracking completed manually; normal disclaimers apply about it potentially being out a touch either way)
So far in 2025, Port Adelaide have liked to initially compress the ground in neutral situations or on offence, before using the open space to explode into. It also means there can be plenty of space for opponents if they win the ball, break through that initial layer and be greeted with either space ahead, one-on-ones, or both. Much more than they’d get against other teams.
After three quarters of what could best be described as poor-quality circle work, Essendon shifted in the last quarter, looking to break through directly with run and carry and then using the space ahead for higher quality entries.
It was sparked by debutant Saad El-Hawli…
…continued by Dylan Shiel…
…Xavier Duursma had a game high 12 disposals in the final term…
…and then with the forwards holding their space, they were able to get good looks at the ball when it came in.
With a week off now to continue working on these improvements, and an extremely winnable fortnight directly after the bye – Melbourne and West Coast on tap – there’s room to work back from their early season issues.
—
The Create Your Own Depth Chart feature is now part of the List Management suite, all on the $5 tier for Patreon subscribers:
You can subscribe to the Patreon for 2025 right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
—
Reasons for Carlton’s late issues
Carlton’s issues in the second half have been well documented by this point, but it’s worth digging a little beneath the surface to try and find its root cause.
Michael Voss got mocked, mercilessly, for saying Carlton were running out games well. But it makes sense because it’s not as if they’re stopping dead. They’re getting more than enough territory in the second half…
Second half inside 50s for Carlton
Round 1 v Richmond: 29-20 (albeit score influenced territory late)
Round 2 v Hawthorn: 26-30
Round 3 v Western Bulldogs: 28-27
…they’re hitting the scoreboard regularly enough…
Second half scoring shots for Carlton
Round 1 v Richmond: 9 v 12
Round 2 v Hawthorn: 10 v 10
Round 3 v Western Bulldogs: 8 v 14
…and they’re still having more than enough time in zone. They’re in the positives for time in forward half over their three matches combined. Even the scoreboard over the same time…
Carlton’s second halves in 2025
For: 8.19.67
Against: 24.12.156
…appears on the surface to be a little influenced by inaccurate and accurate goal kicking on either side, the Blues struggling and their opponents rarely missing. It’s not that bad in a lot of areas.
But if you zoom out and look at matches as a whole, things start to get clearer. There’s a clear offensive decline the longer the game goes:
Carlton’s scoring shot % per inside 50 by quarter
Q1: 44.2%
Q2: 36.7%
Q3: 34.1%
Q4: 31%
Which brings us back to the way Carlton are moving the ball. For a variety of reasons – injuries, general availability, system, underdone players, others down on form – it’s blunt force football at the moment.
There’s also a thin line between blunt force and just plain blunt. The form sides have multiple ways to hit the scoreboard. That unpredictability keeps the field open on offence and leads to more scoring opportunities, with opponents not able to set their defence up in a way that can immediately pinball back on when they gain possession.
Because Carlton don’t have that variety in their offensive method (yet, anyway), it makes it easier for opponents to gradually wear things down, knowing there aren’t a heap of different looks coming their way.
And then when opponents do get possession after wearing Carlton’s offensive system down over the course of a game, they gradually earn better and better looks:
Carlton’s goals conceded within 30 metres, per quarter*
Q1: 33% (One out of three)
Q2: 30% (Three out of 10)
Q3: 42.9% (Six out of 14)
Q4: 50% (Five out of 10)
(*Compiled using a combination of Footy Live app and vision, should all be correct)
Some of this should fix itself soon, assuming Harry McKay is able to return and Sam Walsh continues to improve after an interrupted pre-season. How quickly the player availability and form mesh with the offensive system will determine whether 2025 is a lost season.
—
A few weeks into the season, we have enough posts to start rolling out the ‘in case you missed it’. So without any further ado, the last five posts on The Shinboner, plus…
2025’s Team Structures Page, now updated!
North Melbourne’s Round 3 analysis v Adelaide
Trend checking: Round 2’s Notebook
North Melbourne’s Round 2 analysis v Melbourne
An all-positive piece: Round 1’s Notebook
North Melbourne’s Round 1 analysis v Western Bulldogs
—
Hawthorn’s wind-influenced adjustment
Regular readers will know how much I love wind-assisted games. Bold, caps lock, LOVE.
It’s because the conditions add an extra tactical element we don’t often get to see, and Hawthorn’s adjustment in the third quarter proved decisive.
(Note: Let’s put GWS outpointing Hawthorn in the contest during the first quarter to one side for a moment)
In the first quarter while Hawthorn were stuck against the wind, they largely had their ‘normal’ team defence in open play. In standard conditions, it would have been fine. On this night it wasn’t the way to go.
GWS were able to find open spaces at will as they exploited the space left by Hawthorn, space that normally wouldn’t be available to them in any other conditions. Combine it with the Hawks looking to move the ball a little too quickly – partly due to the Giants’ pressure, partly due to going with their standard ball movement – and it wasn’t a good quarter, even allowing for their conditions disadvantage.
The two changes Hawthorn made in the third quarter (again, apart from improving around the contest) was to try and own possession more, along with pulling their team defence back a little bit to account for the conditions.
When the Giants’ ball movement is flying in open play, much of it is based around slicing through an onrushing defence, taking layer after layer apart.
Hawthorn did their best to not give the Giants that option if they did manage to break through the initial layer. Take this passage of play as an example; normally after this Jai Newcombe kick you’ll see a handful of Hawks (or any offensive team, really) try to follow the ball in a decent distance.
In this case … nothing happens. At all. The Giants’ rebound goes over a pocket of glaring space where players would normally be and straight to Hawthorn numbers, noticeable in how deep they’re sitting – almost in identical positions to where Newcombe kicked it.
(We’ll cut the clip off before a dreadful Hawthorn turnover undoes the work about to be illustrated)
This was on show repeatedly during the third quarter, and even the fourth as GWS got more desperate chasing the game in its dying stages.
Meanwhile, the possession change isn’t quite as worthy of video clips, given there’s not as much exciting about holding on to the ball. But it was equally as important in its own way.
Hawthorn’s 119 disposals in the third quarter were their most in a term so far this season. In its simplest terms, owning possession gave GWS less time to use the wind to their advantage. Wildly easy in theory, difficult to carry out in execution.
So when you combine a shift in team defence, a shift in possession mentality, along with a better output around the contest, it combined for a game-defining quarter when Hawthorn kicked four goals to two – against the wind.