Normally this is a Round 1 post, but there were so many intriguing things from teams’ first games this topic got pushed back a week.
For the uninitiated, most years the Round 1 Notebook is a check on early season trends around the league and judging whether they’ll keep going, or it’s just a mirage fuelled by small sample sizes.
Each topic will naturally be more of an acknowledgement rather than a deep dive, setting the scene for things to watch in future weeks.
Today’s topics…
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Port Adelaide’s handball focus
Here’s Port Adelaide’s kick to handball ratio over the last five and a bit seasons:
2020: 1.42
2021: 1.46
2022: 1.43
2023: 1.60
2024: 1.74
2025: 1.05 (18th in the league)
It doesn’t take a university degree to spot the odd one out. 1.05 is also an abnormally low ratio league wide. The lowest season tally in the league since Covid has been the Bulldogs’ 1.17 in 2020.
While Port’s 2025 number should – you’d imagine – tick upwards slightly, this is the way they want to play. All available evidence points this way. It was a feature in pre-season, carried over to the debacle against Collingwood and then had the benefit of a soft kill against Richmond to bed in a little further.
Carlton’s defending from their front half
While most focus has been on Carlton’s offence over the first two weeks – and fair enough, too – what has flown a little under the radar has been their team defence, particularly from the front half.
On raw numbers, Carlton’s nine goals conceded from possession chains starting in their forward half is relatively ho hum. But the combined number would have been far, far higher against a better team in the season opener, and in better conditions than Round 2.
Although Carlton isn’t anyone’s idea of the quickest team in AFL history, what’s been more noticeable at the ground over the first fortnight has been the slowness to snap into defensive mode as soon as they lose possession.
It’s a speed of mind issue before getting to any speed of foot queries. If the Blues don’t snap into gear and fix the issue on Friday, the Bulldogs will slice them apart repeatedly and the nine goals conceded will rise dramatically.
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St Kilda’s situational third midfielder
In the pre-season look ahead, St Kilda’s topic centred on who would play as the third on-baller alongside Jack Steele and Jack Macrae. Until Mattaes Phillipou was ready to return anyway.
The first two games have unveiled a situational approach. Against Adelaide it was very much by committee to start, before it quickly turned into throwing everything at the wall to see what stuck. (It was nothing)
Then against Geelong, Ross Lyon said the plan was to tag Bailey Smith before his late withdrawal. That attention turned to Max Holmes, who started as more of a ‘traditional’ on-baller which in turn led to Marcus Windhager taking the bulk of the third on-ball minutes for the Saints.
If the tag was on Smith instead, it likely would have been someone other than Windhager as the third on-baller, because early signs indicate Smith is set to play the free roaming midfield role – sometimes coming up from half forward, sometimes on the wing, a whole lot of offence and not much defence – to complement other Cats.
With Richmond on the schedule this week, St Kilda may decide there’s no midfield tag needed. Perhaps Windhager puts attention into someone else, perhaps he plays a straight up midfield role instead. We will see what the next choice is.
Callum Ah Chee, the forward target
In Brisbane’s quest to refresh their forward line post-Joe, the early steps have been tentative, at best.
It hasn’t been helped by Charlie Cameron’s early unavailability, and even Kai Lohmann missing against the Eagles forcing another reshuffle.
Nevertheless, perhaps the most surprising thing from the first couple of weeks has been Callum Ah Chee as the most targeted Lion inside 50, ahead of Logan Morris in second and Eric Hipwood in third.
With Hipwood playing higher up the field as more of a connector and outlet target, Logan Morris somewhere in between connecting and deep, and the third tall (whether Darcy Fort or Sam Day) fulfilling more of a bits and pieces role, it’s left Ah Chee as the deepest forward more often than not.
It’s probably – maybe? – a safe assumption Ah Chee’s role will change once Cameron is back in the side. Or it could be something Brisbane are looking to add as a more consistent part of their repertoire.