Santino Marella once famously proclaimed, ‘put up the Honk-A-Meter!’, and because everything is wrestling, this week’s Notebook is all about the Hope-A-Metre.
In other words, it’s a fancy term for checking in with all the top 13 teams in ladder order and assessing how much they can hope for, through the lens of their biggest structural question and a few other angles.
A 10 on the hope-a-metre means a premiership is realistic, while a one means things are grim. At that point it probably should become a worry-a-metre but let’s try and stay positive.
(Of course all the below assumes there’s a relatively normal injury run from here on out)
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Sydney’s hope-a-metre: 10
The biggest worry: Injuries
We know Sydney’s best is better than any other team’s best so far this season. Although the Swans aren’t in the best of form as a collective right now, if they had maintained the rage from early in the year they’d have been at an Essendon 2000 level and we all know they were never that.
But Dane Rampe’s calf issue and Lewis Melican’s hamstring tweak exposes arguably Sydney’s biggest weakness. There’s only so much the defensive system can overcome and if they’re forced to play with Aaron Francis and Nick Blakey as their second and third talls for the foreseeable future, they lose a key plank of their rebound and leave themselves exposed based on Francis’ form so far this year.
If Rampe and Melican are fit, then there are much fewer worries given Sydney will spend the next month integrating Callum Mills and Luke Parker. The pair should hit September raring to go, most likely with Mills in a utility role and Parker in a mid/forward role depending on the week.
Brisbane’s hope-a-metre: 8
The biggest worry: Defensive transition
Since the bye Brisbane’s improvement has come from taking a few more risks offensively, but the counter has been a more open defence, as covered in the Round 14 Notebook.
Whether the offensive improvement continues to outweigh that defensive frailty will determine their ceiling in 2024.
Fremantle’s hope-a-metre: 8
The biggest worry: Sustaining the rage … in other words, not a huge amount
Where Brisbane have opened up their offence at the slight cost of their defence, Fremantle have managed to open up their offence and maintain their defence.
Since their hammering at the hands of the Bulldogs in Round 14, the Dockers have found better balance between offence and defence instead of staying in their shell with a heavy focus on the latter.
They’ve been sixth for scores per inside 50, sixth for scores against per inside 50, but most importantly fourth for inside 50 differential; a notable difference to the first 14 rounds when they ranked ninth.
Able to play more in their forward half the results have come on the scoreboard. It’s just a matter of maintaining it through a tough run to finish the season and then the sky’s the limit if they remain in the top four.
Carlton’s hope-a-metre: 7
The biggest worry: Injuries
If Tom De Koning is fit for the first week of finals and plays as the sole ruckman, if Sam Walsh is fit and moving well, if Mitch McGovern can stay fit down back, then Carlton have a shot at bettering their 2023 finish.
But with each week that goes by, the worries pile up. The system has improved this year when the key players are fit, as covered in the Round 15 Notebook. It’s just a matter of those players being there when September arrives.
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GWS’ hope-a-metre: 7
The biggest worry: Contest
We know the Giants’ turnover game is elite, but too often this season they’ve been let down by their contest work. Again it happened in the first quarter against Melbourne, but this time they managed to turn it around.
If the contest can improve a level or two, then the hope-a-metre goes up to 10 in quick time. Until then it hovers in the pack with nearly everybody else.
Geelong’s hope-a-metre: 7
The biggest worry: Midfield
It’s still the honeymoon period for Tom Stewart’s ‘midfield’ move, aka ‘start on-ball and drop back to play as an extra defender’ move.
The best teams will have a counter by the time finals roll around, which leaves more responsibility on the remaining midfielders to step up and carry the load.
But what allows Geelong more hope than others is their system, particularly defensively. On an individual basis they arguably have more flaws than most teams. But their structure and team roles are better than nearly everyone else.
Port Adelaide’s hope-a-metre: 5
The biggest worry: System
There’s been a couple of Notebook entries on Port Adelaide in the last month or so. The issues are still the same, and now we’re 20 rounds in, expecting a change seems optimistic at best and foolish at worst.
It comes down to talent v system. If the former can overcome the latter, potential is high. But over the last few years, the former hasn’t overcome the latter.
Western Bulldogs’ hope-a-metre: 10
The biggest worry: Consistency
They’ve found their preferred midfield rotation, out of nowhere they’ve unveiled Rory Lobb as a defensive partner for Liam Jones and a rotating third KPD, the three-pronged forward monster is firing, and the general system is sound.
Everything is humming, results have followed with five wins from their last six, and they’ll start favourites in at least their next three matches and possibly the next four.
The only thing stopping the Bulldogs is their habit of throwing in a stinker every so often, which has left them with little margin for error in the run home. On form you could almost argue they’re the best team in the competition right now, but they’re only inside the eight by percentage because of those flat spots earlier in 2024.
Hawthorn’s hope-a-metre: Playing with house money
Okay, I kind of cheated here. But really, unless half a dozen players go down with 12-month injuries, everything for the rest of this season is gravy.
Just miss out on finals? Frustrating, but that’s okay. Make finals but lose in the first week? No big deal. Potentially even win a final? That’d be well ahead of plans.
It’s the best part of a team’s rise, where there’s no real expectations and everyone feels free to enjoy each week without it. Sullying that with analysis about structures and the like brings the mood down.
The most important part of Hawthorn’s 2024 – unless the finals run suddenly gets real deep – is the decisions they make with their list build after the season is over.
Until then, enjoy the ride.
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For those who have missed previous Notebook entries, here are links to the last five editions:
The good and bad of team defence: FTN, R19
Future forecasting: FTN, R18
Playing ‘too safe’: FTN, R16
Carlton’s next step, Port’s system faults: FTN, R15
Brisbane’s movement shift, Bulldogs midfield rotations: FTN, R14
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Essendon’s hope-a-metre: 2
The biggest worry: Learning the right lessons
Two things can be true at the same time:
1) Essendon’s process is better than last year, with this year’s run of poor form due to a general fade out rather than 2023’s less sustainable method
2) There’s a real conundrum over what steps to take next
Because although the Bombers aren’t an old side, they’re most definitely not a young side either. No team has more minutes played by players between their age 26 and 28 years, the part of a career that should be peak prime.
Only two teams have given fewer minutes to players in their age 22 year and below, i.e. the ‘traditional’ first four seasons in an AFL system if drafted at the first opportunity.
It’s not the usual profile of a list with plenty of internal growth left in it and with an exceedingly tough last month it’s difficult to see a finals appearance in 2024.
Previous Essendon regimes would use it as the trigger to make rash decisions and prioritise short-term. But how much will prioritising the short-term actually benefit Essendon in the bigger picture?
Patience and rationality are the keys…
Melbourne’s hope-a-metre: 3
The biggest worry: Contextualising the year
The best teams and organisations have the ability to contextualise the bad as well as the good. Every team trots out the usual ‘it’s never as bad as it seems and never as good as it seems’ cliché, but private actions tend to tell a different story most of the time.
Finals feel unlikely at best with games against the Bulldogs, Port Adelaide (home), Gold Coast (away), and Collingwood still to come, which makes the questions around how to assess the year.
Unless Melbourne know something we don’t externally, logic dictates Clayton Oliver’s season was entirely foreseeable given the late start and … everything which lead to that. A full pre-season should see Oliver back to normal in 2025, much the same for Christian Petracca after his horrific injury.
The big questions then arrive: Do the changes Melbourne made to their ball movement early this year look better with a fully fit Oliver? Is Trent Rivers a full-time midfielder alongside Oliver, Petracca, and Jack Viney? And then of course everything around the forward line, because Harry Petty and Daniel Turner aren’t anyone’s idea of a second and third tall in a premiership contender, but that’s well-worn ground.
Collingwood’s hope-a-metre: 5
The biggest worry: Where they see their list
A brutal next three weeks – Carlton, Sydney at the SCG, Brisbane at the MCG – while needing to win minimum two of them makes finals feel more unlikely than likely at this stage.
Nothing in their form over the last six weeks suggests they’re charging towards finals but starting this block with Scott Pendlebury’s 400th game helps reset.
If they can rediscover their pressure around the ball to counter the opposition looking to own possession, they’ll find some joy. If they don’t, questions quickly turn to how they see their list and how to approach the next stage of their evolution…
Gold Coast’s hope-a-metre: 1
The biggest worry: Removing a mental block
Is Leading Teams still the go-to company for all the buzzwords about mental growth, working together, and all those topics?
Because once what’s above the shoulders is fixed, Gold Coast will be genuinely scary. Until then, they’re stuck in purgatory. Which is a shame, because when they do make a finals run the trumpets in their song might have a GWS style meme run like a few years ago.