Not before time, this week’s Notebook features positivity for West Coast after their long slog over the last few years.
In addition, there’s the return of Collingwood’s swarm around the ball and movement patterns around the initial phase of contests. Then to finish it off, now every side has played the same amount of games there’s a look at how everyone is faring on Expected Score.
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Collingwood swarming again
In the middle two quarters at the MCG, Collingwood outpointed Port Adelaide in contested possession by 33. Thirty-three. Only three other (entire) games this year have had a contested possession differential of more than 30 and Collingwood achieved it in just two quarters.
The key behind it was – for the first time this year – Collingwood’s swarm mentality looking at peak 2023 levels and it fuelling their offence from there.
In the Round 1 Notebook I partly touched on this when ruminating on reasons for their slow start to the year: the aggressiveness around the ball and off the back of that had faded away.
Not so against Port Adelaide. Although the ball use off the back of contest wins and forced turnovers was still a little bit different to the last two years – by design it now looks like, with more focus on shifting angles from time to time – the initial phase was excellent.
This is the Collingwood we’ve all seen over the last two years. The swarm of numbers force a turnover and away they go…
…or this, unfolding nearly identically with the support running patterns…
And this which is vintage Collingwood: Creating an overload of numbers at the source, winning possession, and going forward at pace creating chaos.
This area of Collingwood’s game had barely been seen through their first five games of 2024. It arrived just in time when they trailed by the best part of five goals.
Now, on paper, this Collingwood against the version of Essendon that has brought excellent immediate pressure around the ball is a tantalising matchup.
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The value of West Coast’s veterans
Finally getting to write something fun about West Coast is … fun! It has been too long. Here are some comparisons without context to start:
2023 at the end of the season: 825, 1254, 820, 1122
2024 after six games: 631, 668, 526, 606
As you can see, those 2024 numbers are on pace to soar over the 2023 comparisons. What they represent are the minutes played by four Eagles veterans. Now for the numbers again with context:
| Players | Minutes played in 2023 | Minutes played in 2024 |
| Jeremy McGovern | 825 | 631 |
| Elliot Yeo | 820 | 526 |
| Jamie Cripps | 1254 | 668 |
| Tom Cole | 1122 | 606 |
Those are four important Eagles, for different reasons, finally able to have a clear run of consistent football at the same time, which is the crucial part.
Because those four are added to the ever present of Liam Duggan, Tim Kelly, Tom Barrass, and Jack Darling, suddenly there are eight veteran Eagles fit and firing simultaneously, all producing at anywhere from a solid to very good level, another crucial part. Calling Jayden Hunt a veteran is an example of time sneaking up on me but if we class him in the same category that makes nine.
For the younger players, everything becomes so much easier to execute with that critical mass of experience. As detailed in the minutes played by age article on Tuesday, the Eagles have given the third most minutes to players in their age 22 year and under, trailing only Hawthorn and North Melbourne.
Reuben Ginbey has alternated between wing and on-ball, Noah Long and Ryan Maric have flashed glimpses forward, Campbell Chesser is making up for lost time and learning from Andrew Gaff on how to play the wing, Brady Hough has looked settled at half back, and Jack Williams is a much more composed player than last season’s version. All of this is easier to accomplish when games are banked alongside a substantial group of fit veterans, instead of lambs to the slaughter as it was last season.
Although having said all that, and not to diminish all those players, but the man of the moment this season has been Harley Reid. And although he is allegedly still only 19, and not 25, his introduction into an AFL midfield has been made all the more smoother for Yeo and Kelly’s presence.
If we use centre bounce attendances as a rough guide of how midfield combinations work in general play, Reid has been at 112 in his first six games. 51 have been with Yeo and Kelly, 37 with just Kelly and 23 with just Yeo. That leaves a grand total of one centre bounce for Reid without either of Yeo, Kelly, or both flanking him.
| CBA combos | Reid + Yeo + Kelly | Reid + Kelly | Reid + Yeo | Reid w/o Yeo and/or Kelly |
| R1 v Power | 5 | 7 | ||
| R2 v Giants | 6 | 7 | 6 | |
| R3 v Bulldogs | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| R4 v Swans | 11 | 7 | 5 | |
| R5 v Tigers | 12 | 5 | 4 | |
| R6 v Dockers | 15 | 7 | ||
| Total | 51 | 37 | 23 | 1 |
For as spectacular as Reid has been, it’s undoubtedly been helped by that veteran presence while they’re still performing at a good level. It’s why the stereotypical calls of ‘trade every player over <insert age here>’, or ‘<player> won’t be part of their next premiership team so they shouldn’t keep him’ is fraught with danger.
Reid learning the intricacies of midfield craft from Yeo and Kelly in the heat of action, with Dom Sheed surely doing his bit during the week as well while he works back to full match fitness, all fast tracks his development at a level that wouldn’t have been possible if anyone with the slightest value was shipped off in a fire sale for 20 cents on the dollar.
Every team’s Expected Score differential after six rounds
Now all teams have played six games, it feels like enough of a sample size to look at Expected Score and compare the competition without outliers juicing the numbers.
Today’s look is two-fold; a slightly more detailed look into teams’ offensive performance, and also a glimpse into how their opponents are kicking for goal.
In theory both can be combined to see if any teams are really on the end of some brilliant kicking – or the opposite – and if they should expect some regression (or progression) to the mean:
The one to stand out is Brisbane. Not only are they not kicking well for goal, they’re also on the end of consistently good opposition kicking. It was more pronounced early in the season with Carlton, Fremantle, and Collingwood.
Then there’s Melbourne, who have kicked extremely well – three consecutive games of +20 or more from Round 1-3 – and haven’t had any opposition do the same to them. Geelong are in a similar situation, but to a slightly lesser extent.
Also, poor Hawthorn.
Then for a slightly more in depth look at how each team has fared kicking for goal, here’s their ‘best’ and ‘worst’ offensive games through six rounds:
These are all updated semi regularly over on the Stat Suite page, exclusive for $5 and $10 Patreon subscribers.