It’s a stat-heavy Notebook for Round 4.
This week we go in-depth on two topics:
– A shift in Aaron Naughton’s role
– Adelaide’s system working against them
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A shift in Aaron Naughton’s role
This could be small sample size theatre in effect, but nevertheless the last fortnight has seen a noticeably different role for Aaron Naughton in the Western Bulldogs’ forward unit.
In Naughton’s first 125 AFL matches (which admittedly includes some time in defence), he had five or more inside 50s in a game on three occasions.
In the last two matches, he’s done it twice: Six inside 50s against West Coast and five against Geelong.
Stats are stats, and they can be manipulated to a certain extent. But if we turn to the heat maps, they back the eye test of Naughton being used higher up the ground. Here’s how his last two weeks have looked:
For extra context, here’s how it compares to Naughton’s final two games of 2023:
Combine the stats with movement and we’re left with a strong case for Naughton being asked to change his game slightly; more of a roaming forward than the target. He’s only been the inside 50 target five times over the last two weeks, less than the other two key forwards in Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (13) and Sam Darcy (6).
Which leaves one remaining query: What is the goal of this change?
The shift largely coincides with Darcy’s return* to the side, which makes sense.
(*Technically Darcy’s return came in Round 2. But Ballarat games and conditions exist in their own dimension which doesn’t make them that relevant in a wider discussion, much like games on windy days in Hobart)
Darcy – enjoying his longest run of uninterrupted football in quite a while – doesn’t yet have the running capacity to consistently roam up and down during his forward stints. In his young AFL career, his highest game time in a match has been 75 percent, with the last fortnight clocking in at 67 percent (Round 3) and 55 (Round 4).
Meanwhile it’s evident to all that Ugle-Hagan is best suited closer to home, only his kicking at goal preventing a genuine superstar leap. Through four rounds of the season, only Charlie Dixon fares worse on individual expected score. In that regard it’s been a continuation of 2023 for Ugle-Hagan, where he ranked worst in the league for difference between expected score and actual score.
Which brings us back to Naughton. Because Darcy can’t play high yet, and Ugle-Hagan is best suited closer to goal, if Naughton is asked to play the same way the Bulldogs are left with three key forwards patrolling the same space.
No matter how good key forwards are, three of them in a limited space leaves no margin for error. At all. Any deviation from peak ball movement risks forward entries devolving into an endless pattern of long kick -> intercept mark -> rebound 50.
It means if the Bulldogs want to maximise their forward advantages, one of those three has to play a little higher up the field, providing more of a connection piece. Perhaps it’ll change a little later in the season when Darcy has an inevitable rest after his first sustained AFL stint and Rory Lobb comes back in, but for the moment it appears Naughton has the job of changing his role.
Through two weeks he’s made a good fist of it. His 11 inside 50s have resulted in seven Bulldogs scoring shots.
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1) The minutes by age team-by-team looks are now live on this page for the $10 tier only.
One of my favourite tools to use, there have been a couple of facelifts to the 2024 versions. The league-wide rankings will debut after Round 6 once all teams have (finally) played the same amount of games.
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Detailed explanations on all the updates and what’s coming on the respective pages
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Adelaide’s ‘system’ working against them
Normally I refrain from writing about (non-North Melbourne) sides twice in quick succession, but post-match comments from Matthew Nicks after their Melbourne loss stood out:
“What we did have right was a system that we haven’t seen in the first three rounds.
“So we got an area of our game back to where it was last year, but unfortunately that exposed some of our execution and our ball use looks so clunky.”
A fortnight ago, I wrote about Adelaide’s midfield and the way their chosen setup is holding them back. This section is almost like a part two to that, focusing on their general ball use principles rather than specifically focusing on their midfield setup.
The skill errors we’re seeing are going to happen when players are out of form. That part is just a fact of life across any sport at any time in history, so we’ll put that to one side.
The issue for Adelaide is how they’re being instructed to move the ball is crucifying any chance of putting up a winning score.
Last year the Crows were happy to take shots from varied locations – in the home and away season no side took more in the 41-50 metre range, or from outside 50. It wasn’t as if their scoring explosion came from a parade of set shots 20 metres out directly in front.
The key behind it working is the Crows actually moved the ball quick enough to generate plenty of inside 50s. They ranked fifth for inside 50s during the home and away season, their 1,257 behind only Melbourne (1,338), Port Adelaide (1,317), Brisbane (1,303) and GWS (1,296). Because of that and their propensity for firing away, it’s how they ranked first for scores per inside 50 last year:
| 2023 H&A Season | Scores Per Inside 50% | AFL Rank |
| Adelaide | 47.57 | 1st |
| Brisbane | 46.05 | 2nd |
| Geelong | 45.59 | 3rd |
| Collingwood | 45.58 | 4th |
| Port Adelaide | 45.48 | 5th |
So far this year, Adelaide have chosen to alter that strategy in favour of attempting to earn more high-quality shots. Last year, nearly 30 percent of their scoring shots came from the 41-50 range. This year it’s dipped to approximately 20 percent, with the increase coming from shots between the 0-15 and 16-30 metre range.
It makes perfect sense in theory, but if a team wants to move the ball into the most dangerous area of the ground – aka the part of 50 opponents defend the fiercest – the ball use has to match.
If it’s slow and pondered, by the time Adelaide get to a point where they can enter 50, all the dangerous space is occupied by a set defence waiting eagerly for their next intercept.
Unfortunately, Slow And Pondered might as well be the title of Adelaide’s season to date. Take this clearance for example – I’ve deliberately used Jake Soligo as the ball carrier to highlight how it’s a system issue rather than an individual, given he was arguably the Crows’ best midfielder against Melbourne.
Soligo wheels away from the stoppage and his only option is … a short, wide kick, with no further support running from anyone else. This is Adelaide’s system right now, and no way to get maximum value out of possession:
To prove the above clip was a system issue rather an individual, here’s Soligo pulling the trigger and getting the ball into the corridor. For most teams that’s the cue to move with speed.
Instead here, with minimal support, the ball slows back down to its customary leisurely pace when Adelaide are in possession, to the outer wing, and then long inside 50 to a pack.
The clips could go on and on, but all the above should clearly spell out why Adelaide are struggling to score this season. Instructions are forcing players to operate with the handbrake on and as a result, through four rounds Adelaide are stone motherless last for scores per inside 50. In other words, the ball use is clunky because of the system. This isn’t news to any Adelaide fan reading it, but still.
This’ll also be the last time I write about the Crows until they turn the ship around or something equally surprising happens, because I’d rather not be that person that continually piles into one team.