It’s time for Part 2 of this year’s Look Ahead.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, every team gets a set up question about a key for their 2025 dreams…
But it has a pure on-field focus. Nothing about potential player movement, off-field gossip; it’s strictly about what happens on the grass.
The goal here isn’t necessarily to lay down the law, as such. It’s more of a plan to introduce topics to watch, creating a space where we’re all watching and learning, as mentioned in this year’s introduction piece laying out 2025 plans.
This year the Look Ahead is divided into three parts with six teams each day. Except for this piece, which doesn’t have North Melbourne for obvious name-of-the-blog related reasons.
Today’s starts with Geelong and goes through to Melbourne.
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The Patreon is up and running once again for 2025, which you can find right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
In addition to Patreon, you can find me on Twitter – and also Bluesky, where vibes are much more pleasant and there’s much less hate. It’s nice.
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Geelong: Will there be the same rotation between positions this year?
Luke Beveridge probably looks at Chris Scott and wonders why there are so few comments on how Geelong rotate their team.
Particularly in the midfield. Tracking it for last year’s Team Structures was a head scratcher from week to week, with the final product* looking decidedly less clean than I intended.
(*That’s a cheap plug for the Patreon given only subscribers can see it)
In theory, the recruitment of Bailey Smith would have come with the promise of more midfield minutes, but what does ‘more’ mean in this Geelong setup? ‘More’ in Geelong colours tends to be the equivalent to ‘not a lot’ for plenty of other teams.
If Smith’s on-ball minutes come with the accompanying structure to cover his flaws, does that mean Tom Stewart continues as a full-time midfielder? Less time for Patrick Dangerfield on-ball and more time forward?
No wonder they catch teams on the hop most weeks.
Gold Coast: How will they bounce off half back?
I promised every team would have a proper on-field style question, so I’m resisting the urge here to just type ‘be a serious club’ and end it there.
But to actually be serious for a minute, clearly the off-season focus for Gold Coast was to boost their rebound. Daniel Rioli and John Noble’s arrivals signalled as much.
Given Sam Collins, Mac Andrew and Charlie Ballard appear to be playing back as a trio, with Wil Powell and Bodhi Uwland to then pair up against the two most dangerous mid-sized and small forwards, it leaves plenty of rebound in the hands of Rioli and Noble. It’s a very nice back seven.
Their 2024 disposal profile had a handball slant – 16th in the league for kick to handball ratio – and a focus on distance when kicks did happen – the highest percentage of long kicks in the league.
Does any of that change now with Rioli and Noble in tow?
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For those who missed the start of season announcement, you can find it here. And the schedule between now and the start of the season, with an extra North Melbourne piece in there at some point, is…
| Post | Patreon access | Public access |
| General 2025 announcement | Live | Live |
| Over/under win total | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 1 | Live | Live |
| Look Ahead, Part 2 | Live | 20th Feb |
| Look Ahead, Part 3 | 20th Feb | 21st Feb |
| NMFC Match Sim Analysis | 23rd Feb | |
| The Notebook, Match Sim | 24th Feb | 25th Feb |
| Continuity Rankings | 26th Feb | 27th Feb |
| NMFC v West Coast Analysis | 2nd Mar | |
| The Notebook, Pre-Season | 3rd Mar | 4th Mar |
| Team Tiers, Version 1 | 5th Mar | 6th Mar |
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GWS: What’s the optimal balance for their on-ball rotation?
Obviously Tom Green is the main man (after he returns from injury) when it comes to the Giants’ on-ball rotation.
What comes after that is interesting. A Finn Callaghan proper leap year – which isn’t correct terminology but I’m going with it anyway – would solve some nagging queries.
Because while there are a handful of options, there aren’t a huge number of Giants who can be reliably pencilled in for large on-ball minutes. Stephen Coniglio is recovering from multiple off-season surgeries; Josh Kelly just the one surgery but better suited fluctuating between on-ball and wing regardless.
Perhaps Toby Bedford can round out his midfield game, and GWS lean into more on-ball stints for their 386 very good small forwards to round the mix out. It’s a different profile to other premiership hopefuls.
Hawthorn: How will they respond to being scouted?
Just to get the obvious out of the way first: betting (not literally) against Sam Mitchell is foolish.
There weren’t any tricks to Hawthorn’s rise this year, no reinventing the wheel. They did the simple stuff very well. Here’s an example from their Elimination Final win over the Bulldogs.
It required total team buy in both defensively, and particularly offensively, with their patterned focus on creating space while moving forward.
At this point it’s probably all sounding like faint praise, so I should stop and say the above is something plenty of teams can only dream of accomplishing. It’s supposed to be genuine praise.
However (sorry), my query is what happens now they’ve been studied over a summer, along with question marks over parts of their forward line; the same forward line which worked so well together last year.
Calsher Dear is out for at least a period to start the season, and we know how touchy back issues can be. Mitch Lewis is still a long-term out with his ACL recovery. Mabior Chol hasn’t had a strong track record of stringing two good seasons together. Jack Gunston with another year into the legs. These players are crucial to create the space for the likes of Jack Ginnivan and Nick Watson to create havoc closer to home.
Their back line structure will inevitably change ever so slightly with the additions of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle, although that projects as more of a temporary blip instead of anything significant.
Good teams can execute their system for a period of time. Great teams can execute their system even when opponents know what’s coming. That’s what to watch for this year with the Hawks; whether the list is capable of the latter at this point in time.
And also, this is all going to prove irrelevant when Mitchell adds something new to the bow and Hawthorn start winning in different ways. Because he’s very good at what he does.
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The Create Your Own Depth Chart feature is now part of the List Management suite, all on the $5 tier for Patreon subscribers:
You can subscribe to the Patreon for 2025 right here. The three tiers are much the same as previous years, with refined features for the top two.
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Melbourne: Who will be their priority?
I’ve specified who instead of what for a reason. Pick 6 and 11 last year, added to pick 7 and 13 in 2023, along with a further group of youngsters who got an extended look last year, means there’s a number of inexperienced players building up in red and blue.
Of course, there’s also an experienced batch of 28s and over, most of them rightfully taking prominent roles. It’s the fringes of that group, combined with the growing younger brigade, that intrigues me.
There are a couple of ways to introduce youngsters:
1) Minor roles, regularly substituted either off or on, and largely on the periphery
2) Thrust into important spots, with key minutes at key times of the game
The push and pull between these types of decisions and how they play out week to week will tell us plenty about where Melbourne see themselves not only this year, but in the future as well.
For example, Caleb Windsor’s move to half back. Is he entrusted with plenty of rebound responsibility, or is he the secondary option?
While Kozzy Pickett is serving his suspension to start the year, who takes his spot in the rotation and how much responsibility will they have?
It’ll be an under the radar subplot to the season, although it could burst through if Melbourne get off to a slow start and pressure starts to influence decisions.
(I’m just really happy I thought of something else other than ‘forward line’)