Welcome to the fifth edition of the Shinboner Finals Dossiers. For new readers, the aim is to comprehensively profile each of the top four* teams.
This year’s format is a little different to previous editions, thanks to new Patreon features. Firstly we’ll start with a look at how the team has evolved from week to week with the Team Structures tool.
Then it’s a look at how each team beats you, followed by the opposite: how you beat this team. There’s a section titled ‘the narrative’, aka what to watch out for in potential matchups and locations, before finishing up with ‘in a sentence’.
Today we look at a team that started and ended the home and away season with big winning streaks (the latter ending in Round 24), lost seven out of 10 in the middle, and finished fourth despite never really hitting their straps: GWS.
(*and then get annoyed when one of them goes out in straight sets, as has happened three of the previous four times I’ve completed this exercise)
All year, GWS have simultaneously been fun to watch and with a nagging sense they’re capable of much more than what they’re producing.
They’ve been unbelievably efficient at times inside forward 50, have outperformed their own Expected Score plus benefited from opposition inaccuracy, and have question marks over their inconsistency around contests.
But they have a ball movement style nearly impossible to stop when up and running, last year’s finals run as proof they can hold up to finals pressure, and a half dozen players to strike fear in any opposition.
They’ve been a fascinating watch all year.
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The Evolution Of GWS
A normal disclaimer for this: It’s naturally not going to be 100 percent correct; there’ll be a couple of minor points missed, along with getting the right balance between primary mid + secondary forward or vice versa. Ultimately it’s me saying this has all been done manually by one person all season and to go easy when pointing out the things I’ve missed.
Save for a couple of weeks here and there, the Giants’ structure at either end has been relatively consistent. Three key forwards with an army of smalls buzzing at ground level, and a supersized defensive unit with reliance on two prime movers to kickstart the rebound. Only two teams (Geelong and Brisbane) have scored more from possession chains starting in their defensive 50.
The big change and discussion point came halfway through the year in the midfield. Toby Bedford was shifted on-ball to play as a tagger, coinciding with Callan Ward’s move to the wing.
A few weeks after that, the re-introduction of James Peatling to the on-ball mix stiffened their defensive backbone further. GWS run a relatively lean on-ball rotation, so with Peatling and Bedford added to the ever-present Tom Green – taking the lead on the ball-winning side – it’s allowed the trio to form a strong partnership … most of the time.
For the first five weeks since Peatling’s recall from Round 19-23, opponents struggled to get any joy from stoppage win, scoring at a rate that would rank dead last if maintained over a whole season.
There’s an argument a Green-Peatling-Bedford combination can struggle to hurt teams offensively given their respective skill sets, but we’ll get to that a little further down the page when considering Josh Kelly and Stephen Coniglio’s roles in the mix. First…
How GWS Beat You
Before we get to the common knowledge part and delve into it with detail, first a word about the Giants’ ‘efficiency’, which can be read with a positive or negative connotation depending on personal preference.
Their seven-gamewin streak late in the season contained, in part:
– A game (Carlton) where they trailed by 39 points late in the first quarter
– A game (Richmond) where they kicked 17.6 from just 36 inside 50s
– A game (Melbourne) where they trailed by 27 points at quarter time
– A game (Hawthorn) where a 29-point three quarter time deficit was overturned with a seven-goal final quarter, five of which started in their defensive 50
– Not one, but two games (Gold Coast + Brisbane) where the Expected Score swing was approximately 10 goals
All the above doesn’t scream top four side, but what it does show is a team making the most of their moments. On Triple M following the Fremantle win, Jesse Hogan summed it up:
“We’re a little bit patchy … we’re just not playing four quarters consistently. It’s probably time to tighten the screws a little bit.”
If the ‘efficiency’ topic is looked at glass half full, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Giants do what they’re best at for longer. After all, if sides can’t deal with their best bursts, logic dictates when GWS do it for longer, they can completely wipe sides out.
But if the ‘efficiency’ topic is looked at glass half empty, it’s equally easy to imagine a scenario where the best opponents shut down GWS’ strengths for longer when there’s games with the highest of stakes.
The Giants have essentially overperformed their underlying numbers to get to this point, whether through their own Expected Score, the opposition’s, or scoring rate inside 50. Most times when teams do that, there’s a regression on the horizon. Yet most times, teams don’t have the top end capability of these Giants.
Which brings us to what the Giants do well, blowing away teams with their ball movement. No side has a lower kick to handball ratio and only Collingwood gains more metres per handball (the two can be mutually exclusive).
It’s what teams set up to stop week after week, often selling out other parts of their team defence to try and do so. That they still can’t stop it regularly speaks to how good the Giants are when up and running.
Only Sydney retained possession from their inside 50s more often GWS up until the Ballarat game (funky conditions for that one, doesn’t translate anywhere else, etc), with a high retention rate speaking to two things:
1) A well-functioning forward line, working as a unit
2) Ball use and movement through the middle third of the ground generating high quality entries
(*And also the likes of Hogan and Toby Greene doing their thing from time to time)
This clip is from the Round 19 Notebook and was originally intended to highlight Gold Coast’s team defence, which is still just as bad on rewatch. But if we can collectively agree to look past that and the annotations for a moment, look at the options GWS have at all times; left, right and forward of the ball.
But it was the Hawthorn comeback that provided arguably the best insight into how tough GWS’ movement is to stop when up and running.
In this clip there are three of the Giants’ final quarter goals. In order by goal:
1) Hawthorn cover the wider options well but GWS go through the middle
2) Hawthorn manage to (more or less) stop the first wave, but the second wave wide gets them
3) There’s no disposal longer than about three metres until the two chip kicks in the front half of the ground, running and carrying almost with an outer shell around the ball to ward off any Hawthorn pressure
No wonder they’re so fun to watch and tough to defend.
This ball movement is at its best when two things happen:
1) The defence is winning their share of one-on-ones. It was mentioned in the Geelong post, but of all finals sides, none contest more than the Giants. The versatility of the Taylor/Buckley/Himmelberg/Idun quartet, able to deal with nearly anything and everything, allows more freedom for the rest of the team.
If one of them is struggling with their responsibilities, it’s easy enough to switch with a teammate while losing next to nothing in the handover. It’s a luxury few other teams enjoy, along with a more than capable backup waiting in the wings in Leek Aleer.
2) Pressure around the ball is on. Over the season the Giants actually rank first for pressure applied, but it’s down to – here’s the topic again – moments and periods – instead of consistency.
For example it was off the chain in the second and third quarters against Carlton when they turned a 33-point deficit to a 36-point lead.
It was much the same in the last quarter of their come from behind win against Brisbane, storming over the top of the Lions at the Gabba with six straight goals.
And those at the MCG saw something similar in the second quarter against Melbourne as they climbed back into the game.
The last part of that sentence though, ‘climbed back into the game’, speaks to an issue. Too often their pressure without the ball has fallen into either the ‘really good’ or ‘poor’ categories with little in between.
How You Beat GWS
Along with the efficiency piece spoken about earlier, and hoping that doesn’t continue, the key for this section is GWS’ midfield mix and output.
“We gave them a fair start in the first quarter. I just felt like we didn’t turn up to play, we weren’t really up for the fight. I thought we were a bit asleep, so I was pretty stern with the messaging (at quarter-time).”
Those were the post-match words of Adam Kingsley after the Giants’ win over Melbourne. But based on his reaction in end-of-quarter huddles throughout the season, he’s odds-on to have been ‘stern’ with his messaging on at least half a dozen occasions this season.
The on-ball unit of the Giants has suffered from injury-interrupted seasons to Coniglio (10 games missed, clearly still carrying a shoulder issue) and Kelly (eight games missed from two separate calf injuries).
With Finn Callaghan alternating between wing and on-ball as required, it’s what has led the Giants to the Green-Bedford-Peatling trio that has soaked up so many of the minutes as the season has gone on.
While Bedford has done a good job as a tagger overall, by and large it’s an individual role. And although Peatling has had an impressive last couple of months, at this stage in his career – 43 games in – he’s largely a grunt player (highest contested possession rate of any GWS midfielder) and naturally prone to inconsistency.
Matched up with Tom Green, who’s been tasked with the heaviest of heavy lifting from an offensive contest perspective, and the picture starts to emerge of a midfield unit that can be inconsistent with its defensive application as a collective (through no fault of any individuals), along with one that doesn’t necessarily hurt the opposition in possession.
Green has been the target man for Kieren Briggs at contests more than three times the next on-baller. While some of it is naturally down to Coniglio and Kelly’s injuries, it makes the Giants midfield easier to defend.
The lack of variety allows opponents to sit on Green and use their other players to attack. And then when the Giants’ pressure work slips, that’s what leads to their worst moments and it’s open season going the other way.
Sometimes clearance differential can be a little simplistic, but at other times the simplest explanation is the best one. GWS rank 17th in the stat this year, ahead of only West Coast. But they’re roughly mid-table – ninth – for first possession.
The simplest way to explain the difference is Giants are getting their hands on it initially – hence the passable first possession ranking – but can’t win the clearance from there. Which comes down to the skill set of the other, non-Tom Green midfielders.
Without the consistent presence of Coniglio on-ball and Kelly floating between wing and on-ball when required, it’s what has played a large part in the Giants midfield being quite one-dimensional at times.
The pre-finals bye should help provide some respite for Coniglio’s dodgy shoulder and allow him to approach the Sydney game in better shape; a sorely needed development given how the Swans’ two wins in the head-to-head battle have unfolded this season.
It’s the biggest question mark around their game and it was again on display in the final round, the Bulldogs outpointing GWS 50-35 at clearances.
The Narrative: Can their midfield group stand up?
As shown above, at times the Giants’ contest and pressure game has been elite at times. More than elite, even, if there’s such a category. It’d be logical to argue their best is better than any other team’s best this year.
But it all depends on how long their work around the ball holds up. If consistent, it fuels their ball movement because it starts from a position of strength.
If it’s not consistent, then it creates two issues:
1) The ball movement starts further and further away from their attacking end
2) Said ball movement is their only avenue to goal
Which brings us back to the efficiency point. They surely can’t keep it up for entire finals against the best of the best, but if their contest work doesn’t hold up then that’s what they’ll have to do to stay alive.
It’s a fascinating mix, and one that’d be getting a whole lot more attention if they were a bigger club.
In A Sentence
How high you are on the Giants’ chances depends on your confidence in their on-ball game coming together at the same time as their ball movement.