Welcome to the fifth edition of the Shinboner Finals Dossiers. For new readers, the aim is to comprehensively profile each of the top four* teams.
This year’s format is a little different to previous editions, thanks to new Patreon features. Firstly we’ll start with a look at how the team has evolved from week to week with the Team Structures tool.
Then it’s a look at how each team beats you, followed by the opposite: how you beat this team. There’s a section titled ‘the narrative’, aka what to watch out for in potential matchups and locations, before finishing up with ‘in a sentence’.
Today we look at a team that’s playing in a qualifying final for the 14th time in the last 18 years: Geelong.
(*and then get annoyed when one of them goes out in straight sets, as has happened three of the previous four times I’ve completed this exercise)
A top four finish in 14 of the last 18 years. The record is, to use a technical term after a lot of analysis, ridiculous.
And yet here we are again as Geelong prepare to play Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval with a double chance in their back pocket.
In many ways, the 2024 edition of Geelong is the most interesting for neutrals in many years. It’s possibly the least talented on an individual level when compared to anything through the 2010s up until the premiership in 2022.
But on a wider level there’s a case to be made it’s the strongest team system of the lot, accentuating strengths and covering flaws. And in a year like this when so many teams are bunched up, it’s proved crucial in propelling the Cats to another top four spot.
We know September is the ultimate test of systems where everything is put under extra pressure.
For the Cats it’s a question of whether their team infrastructure – with fewer flaws than other teams – can overcome individual question marks in the midfield – where there’s more flaws than other top teams.
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The Evolution Of Geelong
A normal disclaimer for this: It’s naturally not going to be 100 percent correct; there’ll be a couple of minor points missed, along with getting the right balance between primary mid + secondary forward or vice versa. Ultimately it’s me saying this has all been done manually by one person all season and to go easy when pointing out the things I’ve missed.
The other three teams illustrated this way are all neat and tidy. Then there’s this clutter in the middle, where the sheer number of players make it impossible to look anything other than messy. I apologise.
It does give an insight into the areas Geelong are happy with compared to their search for the best combination. The defence have been relatively solid all year and forwards even more so.
The midfield is a different story where it’s been constant chop and change. Sometimes it’s been down to injuries restricting form, sometimes it’s been a straight up form slump, or other times it’s been players not taking their chance.
With few exceptions, they haven’t been able to dominate games around stoppages and contests. Perhaps there was a realisation of this early on and it was what led to their game style adjustment this season.
And speaking of game style…
How Geelong Beat You
Imagine if, just a couple of years ago, you said in 2024 Geelong would be a successful side largely uninterested in controlling possession, instead opting to take the quickest route to goal however that may be.
It’s been Geelong’s MO this year, ranking 15th in uncontested possession differential. An important note is it’s been by design. Unlike other teams where the goal is to deny them possession for varying reasons, the Cats are willing to own a possession deficit as part of their style. Or not own possession, which is probably a more accurate description.
Nevertheless, to become a dangerous attacking team despite the comparative lack in possession, the Cats are happy to take the space given to them by opposition defences, with little preference whether it’s through the corridor or boundary. It’s chameleon-esque in a sense, adapting to their surroundings more often than not.
Take these two clips as an example. First it’s a look at the Cats’ opening goal against St Kilda a fortnight ago. After gaining possession in the back half and seeing the corridor is occupied, they simply take what’s given to them out wide.
It’s nothing earth-shattering but it’s simple and, most importantly, effective. Taking what’s given instead of forcing the issue makes it easier to transition:
Or if the opposition makes a mistake and gifts Geelong the corridor, they’ll gladly take advantage of that as well.
This clip is from early in the season against the Bulldogs. All it takes is one mistake and the Cats march down the ground:
No team has scored more from their defensive 50 than Geelong, which in this case speaks to their ruthlessness in exploiting errors.
Obviously Geelong’s offence isn’t exclusively based on what opponents allow, but it’s important to stress how they force other teams to beat them, rather than give games away in a hail of self-inflicted errors.
Then defensively, once opponents are locked in their back 50 they struggle to break out. Only Sydney and the Bulldogs concede a lower percentage of inside 50s from opponent rebound 50s.
Part of it comes from the consistency of availability with Geelong’s half forwards all season. Gryan Miers, Brad Close, and Tyson Stengle have all played every single game. The continuity allows their defensive running patterns work in stride with each other.
Further behind the ball, the trio of Jack Henry, Jake Kolodjashnij, and Zach Guthrie have played all but one game (Kolodjashnij, Round 5) together in defence. It’s no surprise Henry (2029) and Guthrie (2028) have been locked away long term; such is their importance to Geelong’s system.
League-wide, Henry ranks top 10 for most one-on-one contests, with his loss rate favourable to all those except the very top tier:
| Top 10 players with most one-on-one contests, 2024 | Total Contests | Loss Rate % |
| Jack Buckley | 84 | 31.7 |
| Harris Andrews | 78 | 14.3 |
| Sam Collins | 76 | 14.1 |
| Ben Miller | 72 | 17.4 |
| Ben McKay | 69 | 34.8 |
| Jacob Weitering | 62 | 11.7 |
| Jack Henry | 61 | 23 |
| Brandon Zerk-Thatcher | 57 | 30.9 |
| Aliir Aliir | 55 | 25.9 |
| Callum Wilkie | 54 | 13 |
| Mark Keane | 54 | 25.9 |
On the whole, Geelong’s general one-on-one work has proved especially important this year as they’ve bucked a league trend. Every other team, with the exception of North Melbourne, has defended significantly fewer one-on-ones than last season.
Except for Geelong, because their total has stayed nearly identical. It doesn’t mean they defend the most in the league – among finalists that honour goes to the Giants for very good reason, to be covered in their piece – but it does mean they’re trending in a different direction to the others.
That defensive strength at each end in different forms, combined with the general team system, is a large part of what’s allowed Geelong to exceed external expectations this year to earn yet another double chance.
But before all this paints the Cats as a formidable, rampaging outfit, there is the other side of the equation…
How You Beat Geelong
The constant shuffling of the midfield tells a tale of a team scrambling to get by in the engine room from week to week.
Nine Cats on-ballers have attended more than 100 centre bounces this year, which includes Mark Blicavs if my math is correct on when he was there as a ruck or mid-only. It’s by far the most in the league, even ahead of Richmond who this year were forced to run about 63 options through there due to injuries.
More often than not, when teams have got on top of Geelong it’s all started from the source. Sometimes all the shuffling and setups can’t completely mask the fact their opponents are simply better. A look through key moments of the Cats’ losses this year shows…
| Geelong losses in 2024 | Time period | Stoppage and/or contest statistic |
| Round 8 v Melbourne | An even scrap of scraps all night | |
| Round 9 v Port Adelaide | Q1 + Q2 | Power +23 points from stoppages |
| Round 10 v Gold Coast | Q2 + Q3 | Suns +21 points from stoppages |
| Round 11 v GWS | Q2 | Giants +19 points from stoppages |
| Round 13 v Sydney | Entire game | Swans +19 contested ball & +13 clearances |
| Round 15 v Carlton | Entire game | Blues 53 points from stoppages |
| Round 19 v Western Bulldogs | A full ground advantage to the Bulldogs everywhere | |
| Round 23 v St Kilda | Q3 + Q4 | Saints +23 points from stoppages |
…more often than not there’s a common denominator. Most of the Cats’ midfield are either ‘moments’ players, for varying reasons, or role players who are structurally important, but by definition limited in at least one area of their game.
It strikes me as what would be the perfect midfield for prime Patrick Dangerfield to run riot in, knowing he has stability all around him. From time to time he’s still capable of turning back the clock too, as shown by his superb game against Fremantle in Round 22. You’d go a long way before finding a 20-disposal effort from a midfielder as impactful as that.
But by the same token, Dangerfield is also 34 years old with 335 games in the legs; legs that have suffered a string of soft tissue injuries over the years. It’d be unrealistic to expect his best every week. And behind him there aren’t a heap of offensive options that can be relied on at this stage of their career.
Tom Stewart’s move over the second half of the season has been for defensive purposes, Tanner Bruhn hasn’t been able to get any continuity over the same time period because of injuries, Jack Bowes has fluctuated between a string of roles, and there’s a constant push and pull between Max Holmes at half back or on-ball.
In both positions Holmes is arguably their most consistent explosive player but until Geelong figure out how to extend their cloning device past hairstyles and headbands, they can only use one of him each week.
Look at it as a collective and offensively there’s not a lot there to scare other top teams. It’s part of the reason why they’re 0-3 against the other top four teams this year and without a win away from GMHBA Stadium to point to as evidence of, ‘yep, they’re a genuine threat’.
But defensively and in a full-ground structure, the tools are there to frighten teams. Particularly against a Port Adelaide side missing their two prime movers out of the back half…
The Narrative: System v Individuals
In the wrong hands this section can be taken as a negative, so to make it as clear as possible: it’s meant as a compliment.
The ideal for any team is having each player in a role that maximises every strength and hides as many weaknesses as possible.
Geelong are closer to it than any other team and it’s what has played a large part in their success this season. Yet…
If you were to line the Cats’ 23 up against most of their top eight competitors this year, more often than not you’d walk away with more of the opponents’ players. Obviously it’s not as simple as that when it comes to deciding the better team, but it does speak to the bigger picture of how far Geelong can progress in September.
They’re a classic case of a side without an overly high ceiling, but also a team which gets closer to said ceiling than most others each week.
Do the top Cats have another level in them, or is this level their maximum? They are the side who can least afford a drop off, as shown in the second half against St Kilda.
Because while they play closer to their ceiling more often than others, they also have a lower floor than arguably anyone else in the top eight. At least with the exception of the Western Bulldogs and the random horror show they tend to submit once every few weeks.
Geelong have had three losses of 45+ points this year; the first time it’s happened to them in the home and away season since 2015 (before that it’s all the way back in 2006, a fact which probably makes 17 other teams very jealous).
It’s not an existential crisis if Geelong bow out of the finals quickly. But suddenly the draw has opened up. First up is a Port Adelaide side with historical finals issues and missing two key players, followed by the tantalising possibility of a week off before a home prelim final against likely an interstate side.
Maybe it’s a bit of overcompensation after they’ve outperformed external expectations (read: mine) this year. But if the system holds up and Geelong’s experienced players have enough juice left to turn the clock back for a month…
In A Sentence
How high you are on Geelong’s chances depends on your confidence in their system continuing to excel under greater pressure, concealing their flaws.