With 2:18 remaining, North Melbourne led by 13 points with a stoppage just outside their forward 50.
With 0:18 remaining, North Melbourne trailed by five points and the game had, somehow, slipped from their fingers.
Today’s post is a forensic deep dive into what happened during those two minutes of game play, allowing West Coast to come from the clouds on an afternoon largely played at North’s preferred tempo.
Before getting into everything that happened, an important note: None of this is intended to spread an agenda or highlight negatives, but rather a straightforward illustration of what happened compared to what normally happens in these types of scenarios.
Which is to say if people are intending to use this as a shovel to further pile on individuals or spread negativity, move along.
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2:18 remaining, stoppage at half forward
At this stage of the game, the trailing team almost always switches into full send mode. Conceding an extra goal isn’t really a major concern given the scoreboard.
It means the attacking team has two options: continue on and play as normal, or shift into positioning to cover off the trailing team’s attempted attack. It goes without saying the latter choice is taken nearly all of the time.
But here, whether through fatigue or a failure to recognise a mode switch was needed, North continued to play as normal. As a result it allowed West Coast to get numbers goal side of their direct opponents in the initial phase after stoppage.
After Bailey Williams’ toe poke forward, the vision shows Eagles streaming forward…
…so when Toby Pink gets bowled over by Liam Duggan, there are Eagles in much better position:
While Tom Powell does a great job catching up to Jamie Cripps and applying the tackle…
…if it wasn’t for the initial, half-a-second pause at the stoppage, Cripps wouldn’t have had the room to take possession in the first place:
Meanwhile, Liam Ryan has been able to run a lane on the wing more or less unchecked…
…so when Cripps loses possession after the Powell tackle, he has Ryan available to flick it forward to:
In looking again at that passage, there’s a second key moment off the ball. A blink and you’ll miss it instance where Charlie Comben takes three or four steps to try and get to Ryan.
It’s a decision that allows Oscar Allen time to get goal side of Comben, who quickly realises his error of judgement. But it’s too late and it allows Ryan an easy kick over the top to Allen:
Allen makes no mistake, and the margin is cut to seven points with 1:33 to go. Here’s the entire passage played out.
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For those who have missed previous match analyses, here are links to the last five matches:
Late season escapades: Round 21 v Richmond
Taking stock: Round 20 v Geelong
Forward progress: Round 19 v Carlton
Reality check: Round 18 v Sydney
477 days later: Round 17 v Gold Coast
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1:27 remaining, secondary stoppage
Now the game has progressed to a stage where it’s well and truly in the balance – but with time on North’s side – the standard approach is to make it a ‘low event’ game. By that it means as little chaos and open play as possible.
If there’s a chance for a kick and mark then by all means take it, but when the ball is in dispute it’s all about keeping it in congestion and in tight.
From this secondary stoppage, North do it relatively well for about 15 seconds as the ball is bouncing and bobbling around.
But then Harry Sheezel, in maybe the only mistake of consequence he’s made all season, decides against taking possession in a spot where taking possession and absorbing the tackle is the goal:
Introducing chaos and unpredictability is exactly what the leading team shouldn’t be doing in a situation like this.
Jayden Hunt reacts the quickest, because West Coast are on their toes and North are scrambling, and sends it forward.
Luke McDonald can’t hold onto the mark under pressure from a diving Jack Darling spoil…
…and while that Hunt kick plus McDonald dropped mark is happening, no one has stayed in good defensive position on Cripps.
It’s partly down to the domino effect from the unpredictability introduced earlier, and partly because of North not snapping into their end-of-game team defensive structure quickly enough.
Every team has a set series of roles they expect individuals to execute. Obviously few people externally know the exact patterns, but in this case it’s easy enough to spot Bailey Scott* stuck in-between the entry kick and Cripps.
(*There’s a slight assumption Scott’s responsibility was Cripps with McDonald as the loose. It could have also been the lack of a handover between the pair)
Cripps’ finish brought the margin back to one point with 1:01 to go. Here’s the full passage played out:
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1:01 remaining, centre bounce
In the previous section the importance of reducing chaos was highlighted.
Here, with a point the difference and a minute to go, it’s even more crucial to minimise any opportunities for West Coast to gain clean possession.
At the centre bounce, North’s initial setup is strong, protecting the defensive side and narrowing the area to play in.
But then Jy Simpkin opts to throw his boot at the bouncing ball. While the kick gains a few metres, it’s not decisive and gifts the Eagles an opportunity to gain possession.
With their numbers rolling off the back of the square, looking to be proactive, it’s almost an inevitability they’ll hit the ball first.
The gather and kick forward somehow finds its way to Andrew Gaff, who, in game 279, holds onto just the 29th contested mark of his career.
Take a note of Allen at the end of the video, because his pointing at where the mark should be becomes important just seconds later.
0:35 remaining, Gaff kicks for goal
The last time Gaff kicked a ball 50 metres was probably pre-Covid, so everyone knew – or should have known – he was no chance to make the distance from there.
It made the setup for the kick so important. Everything was still in play, whether a short kick to a lead, a lofted ball to the top of the square, or a kick as far as possible and then West Coast rushing it through to tie the scores.
So of all the sequences over the last two minutes, it was this one which should cause the most frustration for North.
The video in the previous section showed Allen pointing to where he believed the mark should be for Gaff.
From there, until he put the ball to boot for what proved to be the winner, no one got close to him. He was allowed to float around without any touch or communication.
In this case it’s easy to point to an individual and say they should have been closer to Allen. In reality, it’s a full team breakdown.
There’s about 15 seconds from the time Allen starts shuffling around to when he kicks it, and in all that time there is no communication or allocation of responsibilities by North.
(This is spliced together from the live footage and replay but with the same camera angle, which it what makes for the sudden jump cut)
In North’s other close finishes this year – in other words, when they’ve had a lead and then not had one – I’ve documented the reasons for each. It’s consistently been fairly logical reasons and not entirely because of North’s faults.
This time was different. It was nearly completely because of how North approached the last couple of minutes; repeated breakdowns on both an individual and team structure level.
There’ll be few opportunities in the short term to see what improvements North make from it – almost certainly not this year at the very least. But it should be a catalyst for a renewed focus on what’s required down the stretch of tight games.