Shifting the Notebook to Wednesday has allowed for plenty more time to really research topics.
This week’s edition is a two-topic edition. First we start with the clearance game from Port Adelaide v Melbourne, and then we finish with the latest instalment of Football 101, taken from St Kilda v Essendon.
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Converting from clearances
When Melbourne kicked the lights out on Saturday night – +29 on Expected Score, along with Port Adelaide’s -9 making for a 38-point swing – it muddied the waters for things to take away from the game.
One item which hasn’t been spoken about too much is the clearance count. Or more specifically, how many scoring shots came from those clearances:
Clearances: Port Adelaide 52-37 Melbourne
Scoring shots from clearances: Port Adelaide 12 (4.8) – 12 (8.4) Melbourne
The score is in brackets for posterity but wipe away that accuracy (or inaccuracy) for a moment and the total scoring shots make for interesting reading.
Despite the Power having 15 more clearances, Melbourne broke even on the scoreboard. And, yes, technically 20 points more, but that’s not the area we’re looking at here.
Because in 2023, Port Adelaide were the most efficient side at scoring from clearances in the home and away season, but also bottom half for conceding points per clearance lost.
It stands to reason if the offensive side of the equation has a down night without the defence improving, we see what we saw at Adelaide Oval.
Watching Melbourne’s clearance wins and the value they got from them – whether by scoring or territory gained – the notable element was how their late movement drew Power players, dedicating resources to the inside layer of the contest, out of useful position.
Take this first goal of the last quarter as an example. Even as the umpire prepares to throw the ball up, Kade Chandler is in at the stoppage. Then, all of a sudden, he’s not. Backing out to get closer to goal, it creates a two-on-one as Travis Boak rushes in the other way.
It’s where the benefit of Max Gawn comes into effect. Melbourne can play more aggressively knowing their captain will provide first use more often than not. A simple tap from Gawn to Christian Petracca, a rushed kick forward – to where Chandler has positioned himself – a further tap to Alex Neal-Bullen, the second of the two-on-one, and it’s a clear shot at goal:
While on Port Adelaide’s side, it fluctuated between clean work and passages like this. From a wide-open centre clearance, the ideal result is more than a long bomb to essentially a four-on-four.
It’s not a bad result per se, but more not as much as it should be. With the ball in the hands of a great user, the marking forwards should be presenting in different directions – not congregating in one spot.
That process after such a clean win isn’t going to consistently cause headaches for the best sides. It’ll beat up on most sides, but against the top it’s one dimensional.
At this point it’s important to emphasise these are small margins overall. It’s the difference between a good and very good side; we’re not talking about top six v bottom six.
Regardless, from a Port Adelaide point of view, without Ollie Wines this week – and likely with Jason Horne-Francis – the Power midfield should function differently against Essendon. It’ll be the first game Wines has missed since Horne-Francis’ arrival, which means if all goes to plan it’ll also be the first game with Horne-Francis, Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, and Willem Drew as the undisputed core four and (relatively speaking) no key players in the second string.
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This breakdown for every team, updated fortnightly. It provides a hell of a lot of interesting information for me; hopefully it does the same for everyone else. I’m hoping it becomes a big collaborative discussion, but more on that next week as formats are fine tuned.
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Football 101: Shifting a defence
For those who missed the initial instalment of Football 101 in pre-season, an explanation…
It’s reserved for passages of play which aren’t game changing or ‘look at this!’ moments, but instead highlight what players or teams in certain positions are trying to do at certain times. Sometimes it may not even fit the general flow of a game. It’s intended as a wider look into trends and most importantly, not designed for any sweeping statements or conclusions on anyone involved.
…that takes us to St Kilda v Essendon at Marvel Stadium.
What St Kilda wanted to do was use the width of the ground to stretch Essendon’s defence, create a gap in the corridor, and then go through there with speed – even if it wasn’t with the cleanest disposals ever recorded in football history.
In my favourite format of poorly drawn diagrams, it looks like this:
And in an actual real-life video, it looks like this:
It’s a relatively base play across the competition that can be adjusted depending on how teams defend it. For instance, in the example above we saw the Saints on the outer wing as pure decoys.
Later on in the quarter, their Essendon opponents looked to shift a little inboard to cut off the middle. When that happened, it allowed St Kilda to use those wider players and progress the ball that way.
The value of a switch is sometimes in what happens in the next phase of play. The switch itself – or players running for it – isn’t always the end goal.
Next time you’re at a game and see a team setting up for a switch, keep an eye on other parts of the ground as well. You might be surprised with what you see.