Results and stats are secondary in a match simulation, but what is important for a team’s first hit-out against real opposition is the process.
And on that count there were plenty of positives for North Melbourne to take away from Wednesday’s clash against Collingwood.
Today’s post will be in the semi-regular jump around format rather than one continual narrative. There were five threads to catch my eye, in no particular order of importance…
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The aggressive ball use
In North’s Look Ahead, I talked about how I’d like to see more of an offensive method that we didn’t get to see in 2023 for various reasons.
I didn’t expect to see such progress immediately in match simulation, but here we are after witnessing a drastic shift to run and gun out of the back half and a forward line notable by how spaced everyone’s leading lanes were most of the time.
The two main reasons for it (again, to be clear, just for me):
1) A full pre-season of continuity in instruction: At one point last year all I dreamed for was 12 months of continuous normalcy. And while the pre-season hasn’t been completely incident free, there has been the chance to spend consistent time drilling down on movement patterns, both with and without the ball in offence.
Look at the results already in three months. There’ll be plenty of time to drill right into it on video as the season unfolds, but immediately it’s easy to see how the overlap and commitment to attack is miles ahead from the last few years.
2) Personnel: A half-back trio of Sheezel, Fisher, and McKercher is far more dynamic and damaging than the moving parts of 2023 (plus rookie Sheezel).
There are possessions, and then there are possessions. Not to win the Captain Obvious award for 2024 so early on, but if the goal of speed is to break a defence, then possessions are the order of the day. We saw that on display against Collingwood. Both successful possessions and unsuccessful possessions, which leads into…
Ping pong city
Before anyone gets carried away it’s important to keep in mind the quicker a team moves offensively, the less chance there is to set defensively.
That means North, especially in these early days of playing with speed, are going to have days where they concede a stack of goals from the ball bouncing right back over their head after an ugly turnover in the defensive half. It’s going to bounce back and forth a lot.
As long as there’s process behind the possessions, ultimately it doesn’t matter a huge amount long-term if they lead to short-term turnovers. It can always be fine-tuned; tweaks here and there lead to a better result out the other side.
And that type of constant feedback is perfectly okay for North’s current situation; anyone expecting a fully formed structure on both sides of the ball right out of the gate is either:
a) Trolling
b) Impatient
c) Or has a fantastically optimistic view of the world
Jy Simpkin’s shift in role
The forward line structure for 2024 appears roughly the same* as 2023. It looks like six genuine forwards will be picked in the 22: two talls (Larkey + either Coleman-Jones or a pseudo second ruck such as Greenwood), Zurhaar, Curtis, Stephenson (looking fantastic early doors), and a small forward whose identity is up in the air.
(*We’ll get into overall forward pressure at another time, but I digress)
Much like last year, as five of those are on the field at all times, the sixth forward will be a player pushing up to the midfield.
Unlike last year, based on Wednesday’s match sim it looks like that person will largely be Simpkin, with cameo appearances from Lazzaro and a couple others.
Usually when a half forward comes up to contests and stoppages, they stay on the attacking side and play very much as a forward. The difference with Simpkin, based on early returns, is he plays as a midfielder.
The difference comes largely in positioning. Because of Simpkin’s familiarity with everything being a midfielder entails, he’s able to slot straight in and take his opponent – a defender – into places and setups they might not be overly familiar with, like so:
In turning around a defender so they don’t have the whole game in front of them, Simpkin can lose them in traffic while contributing both in and out of possession.
To be clear it’s not a unique role, by any means. The Bulldogs did it a lot last year with Bailey Smith, for instance. The key difference for North is while Simpkin isn’t as offensively gifted as Smith (still very good, to be clear!), he’s a much better defensive player and that’ll help team structure.
The back seven
There are plenty of moving parts here, but the closer Round 1 gets, the more spots are choosing themselves. Considering there’s normally seven defenders in a 22:
Sheezel, McKercher, Fisher: There’s the three ‘prime movers’, so to speak. Small forwards are going to be a week-to-week proposition, but that’s the trade-off for attacking prowess.
K Dawson: Word over the summer was he’d impressed, and Wednesday proved those words weren’t just hot air. He should be locked in for Round 1.
And then we start getting into form and fitness areas for the remaining three places. My contenders…
Pink: He’d be my pick for an immediate debut given he’s looked relatively comfortable both individually and in the team setup.
McDonald: If he’s fit and able to run out a game at AFL level – still a large question mark at this stage given his interrupted pre-season – then he’ll play. That’ll disappoint some people reading this, but it has to happen for what he brings defensively and helps the unit. Even if he’s not the shiny new toy.
Goater: If McDonald doesn’t play, Goater is the logical replacement. I’m high on his ceiling like the majority, but most likely in the minority in wanting a solid VFL block to raise his performance floor and cut out the subtle errors.
Corr: It’s a largely similar situation to McDonald, especially because of the complete lack of experience amongst the key defensive crop. Pending fitness, there needs to be an experienced head to protect such a fresh unit.
In an ideal world, my Round 1 back seven is: Pink, Corr (or Comben if not fit), Dawson, McDonald (or Goater if not fit), Sheezel, McKercher, and Fisher.
But there’ll be plenty of chopping and changing; I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see a side with eight defensive rotations picked early on.
Centre bounce ruck to midfield combinations
At the moment this is more of a ‘watch this space’ with a high potential of jumping the gun.
However, one thing to stand out for me at centre bounces was a strong focus on Xerri’s taps almost going directly down, barely outside the circle at times.
If it’s not a case of me going 2 + 2 = 9, the benefits of it are clear. If the tap is going almost straight down, it means two things:
1) Only one midfielder is required near the target point, while…
2) The other two protect both ends of the contest as wingers come in from each side
In theory it keeps a solid foundation, doesn’t force defensive efforts in the lottery of space, and allows the midfielders to use their explosiveness – Davies-Uniacke, Wardlaw, and co – to break through.
The counter argument is whether the tap target is given the best chance to earn a clean centre clearance, or whether it minimises risk and reward collectively.
Regardless, this trend is either something I’ve completely manufactured or in an extremely early stage. Something to keep an eye on next Sunday against St Kilda…