The Look Ahead will be the staple pre-season content piece, setting a tone for all 18 teams. The plan is to use them as a scene setter for team trends and individuals. In other words, don’t expect predictions, expect topics to be introduced – from both a list build and on-field perspective.
Few teams have as drastic a potential range in their finishing position as Geelong. There’s a world where experience fires one more time, making it to September comfortably. And it’s also just as realistic where it becomes very evident early in the season they need a full-scale rebuild.
Player contracts
As mentioned in Richmond’s Look Ahead, no team has fewer players* contracted in 2026 and beyond than Geelong.
Given the significant change that’s surely coming over the next couple of years – unless players keep defying Father Time, which is a chance – this flexibility is exactly what’s needed from a list management point of view.
The intriguing part this year is watching who Geelong decide are worthy of handing out medium-term deals to (I would say ‘long’, but we know they don’t really do that). Some teams are happy to hand out multi-year contracts at will and figure out the rest later. Because the Cats don’t do that, we’ll have an immediate window in how they’re planning for the future.
(*as long as I didn’t miss any contract updates over the summer that is)
List demographics
There have been a million and one think pieces about the age of Geelong’s list, and I won’t add to that here.
The key area as it relates to 2024 is how to manage senior players as they show signs of age-related decline. It was on display at times in 2023 in varying degrees and from here it’s a continual balancing act.
How much longer can they produce at a high level? What’s their base level from week to week? Are they a 23-game player or 15 to 16 instead? If so, who of the younger players can step up from time to time?
Create your own Geelong Depth Chart
Changes in personnel
In:
National Draft: Mitchell Edwards, Lawson Humphries, Shaun Mannagh, Connor O’Sullivan, George Stevens, Oliver Wiltshire
Cat B Rookie: Joe Furphy
Rookie Draft: Emerson Jeka
Out: Jonathon Ceglar, Flynn Kroeger, Sam Menegola, Esava Ratugolea, Osca Riccardi, Sam Simpson, Isaac Smith, Cooper Whyte
How can their midfield improve?
It shouldn’t be a shock to the system to say Geelong’s midfield was bottom-third last season. A combination of injuries, dips in form, and force-feeding minutes to players led to too many games where the Cats were drawing dead on-ball from the outset.
With no significant change in personnel from elsewhere, internal health and growth is what’s needed to get their midfield back to where it’s at least a level playing field.
The mooted Tom Stewart move is … a choice, and one that feels very much a rob Peter to pay Paul scenario from this angle. Removing one of the best intercept defenders in the league creates a hole down back and leaves this question: Is Tom Stewart, good midfielder, more valuable to the Cats than Tom Stewart, elite intercept defender? The tone of this paragraph probably indicates my answer.
Pre-season vibes are strong around Tanner Bruhn, and he’s one who will have to take a step forward. A full season from Cam Guthrie is vital, along with managing Patrick Dangerfield to a place where he can hopefully play 20 games despite his recent availability history.
Double figure games from Jhye Clark would be promising after injury ruined his 2023, but overall Geelong needs a better injury run and internal improvement to bounce back.
How much do veterans have left in the tank?
Two topics with a negative slant weren’t my intention when writing Geelong’s Look Ahead piece, but we’re here now.
The Cats enter the season with 11 players in their age 31 year or above: Bews, Cameron, Stewart, C Guthrie, Blicavs, Duncan, Rohan, Dangerfield, Stanley, Tuohy, and Hawkins.
If the majority can hold on for multiple seasons while still contributing, it makes Geelong’s next phase so much easier to navigate. Younger players are brought along at their own pace, the middle agers learn how to take the reins in their own time, and overall it’s a nice and smooth process.
But if half a dozen fall off a cliff this year – whether through injury or form – everything changes. Players are over-extended into roles they’re either not ready for yet or not capable of. The domino effect on-field results in more losses this year, and an urgent need to replenish the list sooner rather than (moderately) later.
What is success for Geelong in 2024?
As usual, with the caveat this is my perspective only, purely from an on-field point of view it’s a finals appearance.
But for their list build, it’s a three-pronged approach of:
1) Figuring out how long each 30+ player has left. An inexact science to be sure, but still vital.
2) Figuring out who has their name in permanent marker for the next five years. Example: If Jack Henry gets through a full season injury free and Sam De Koning returns to 2022 form, they can go forward with confidence those are the two linchpins down back.
3) Figuring out the ceiling of as many of the age 22 year and under players. On paper, the likes of Bruhn, Holmes, Clark and co is what drives Geelong at the turn of the decade, making it vital to know just how far they can take a team.
Teams in Geelong’s position can go in so many directions. It makes them a captivating case study.