Welcome to the third annual AFL continuity rankings, the first step in putting together team profiles for a season.
For those unfamiliar with the concept, here’s how it works:
Patreon subscribers have access to how I keep track of every club’s minutes played and how it helps assessing the state of a list.
And at this time of year, I find the ‘<team> has lost hundreds of games of experience’ line reductive when considering 2024 prospects. For example, on paper Daniel Rich is a significant loss to Brisbane’s list, leaving a 275-game, 15-season hole. And while he’ll undoubtedly be missed off-field (although he remains at the club), on-field he only managed seven inconsistent games in the Lions’ first 12 and was then replaced – upgraded – with an increased role for Keidean Coleman.
However, if we look at the minutes played in 2023 and analyse what carries over into 2024, then we have a clearer look at which teams have changed the most and what gaps they need to fill first. We all get excited by shiny new toys, but before that it’s just as important to understand the holes left by departures.
Naturally this isn’t meant as a be-all and end-all – high continuity doesn’t always mean great things, much like low continuity doesn’t always sound alarm bells – but it is a useful tool (for me at least) to help start painting a picture around a team’s campaign.
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In case you missed it, The Shinboner’s official 2024 launch happened on Monday. You can find all the details here, with a handful of new features on the way, plus a refresh of the tried and true.
To subscribe, here’s the link to the Patreon page with various tiers to choose from.
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Without any further ado, a look at the graphic for 2024:
Along with team numbers, the individuals who leave the biggest holes are:
Players with 1,000+ minutes in 2023 not returning for 2024
Adelaide: N/A
Brisbane: Jack Gunston (1620~)
Carlton: Ed Curnow (1380~), Zac Fisher (1140~)
Collingwood: Taylor Adams (2180~), Jack Ginnivan (1015~)
Essendon: Andrew Phillips (1710~), Will Snelling (1190~), Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (2440~)
Fremantle: Liam Henry (1620~), Lachie Schultz (2345~)
Geelong: Esava Ratugolea (1685~), Isaac Smith (2290~)
Gold Coast: N/A
GWS: Daniel Lloyd (2350~)
Hawthorn: Tyler Brockman (1280~), Fergus Greene (1020~), Jacob Koschitzke (1150~)
Melbourne: Brodie Grundy (1480~), Michael Hibberd (1180~), James Jordon (1250~)
North Melbourne: Todd Goldstein (1965~), Ben McKay (2250~), Kayne Turner (1130~), Jack Ziebell (2020~)
Port Adelaide: Xavier Duursma (1535), Tom Jonas (1465~), Scott Lycett (1235~)
Richmond: Trent Cotchin (1625~), Jack Riewoldt (2290~)
St Kilda: Jade Gresham (2250~)
Sydney: Ryan Clarke (1110~), Lance Franklin (1375~), Tom Hickey (1110~), Dylan Stephens (1125~)
West Coast: Ryan Clark (1055~), Shannon Hurn (1215~), Xavier O’Neill (1405~), Samo Petrevski-Seton (1225~)
Western Bulldogs: N/A (kind of)
Combine the team and individual numbers and these eight points are what stand out to me. All of which will be expanded on in each team’s respective Look Ahead pieces over the next fortnight:
Adelaide’s number isn’t quite a true reflection given Nick Murray and Harry Schoenberg’s ongoing recoveries from ACL and Achilles tears respectively. In a general sense though I’m fascinated to see how they approach the year given they’ve consistently added an extra string per season under Matthew Nicks.
Add in a group of younger players seemingly set to take a step forward in 2024 and they seem ready to launch as long as Taylor Walker continues to be merely above average. In theory it doesn’t even have to be close to his 76-goal effort in 2023. But that is a conversation best suited to their standalone piece next week.
In the long run, Collingwood’s decision to allow Taylor Adams’ departure will free up key minutes for an aging team. Right now though, there’s no clean, like-for-like replacement to fill his half-forward/midfield role. For a team with premiership aspirations once again, it’ll force some sort of reshuffle.
Although Essendon sit 16th in continuity, their replacements for key minute departures are straightforward. The fun part (again, for me at least) is going to be watching how their team style evolves from year one to year two under Brad Scott.
Gold Coast’s number is completely irrelevant to me, simply because of the Damien Hardwick effect. The 2024 Suns offence will surely be completely unrecognisable to the 2023 version under Stuart Dew.
There is so much change in the Hawthorn forward group I’ll be stunned if they hit the ground running. Then again, Sam Mitchell has been one of the best coaches in the league since taking over so if he does get it to work immediately it shouldn’t surprise me.
The point of most these pieces is avoiding a North Melbourne mention because of all the space dedicated to them elsewhere. However, their 78.01% is the lowest of any team’s in the three years I’ve been tracking this stat – and by a comfortable distance. There has been so, so much change that it’s an unrecognisable playing list from just a few years ago.
Much like Essendon, Port Adelaide’s replacements for their key minute departures are easily found, whether through arrivals from elsewhere or internal growth. The interesting part – particularly with their defensive group – is how they approach the task of improving their weakness while maintaining their strengths from 2023.
Speaking of trying to improve weaknesses while maintaining strengths, Sydney may be the poster boys. After being the top ranked side for continuity in 2023, they’ve slipped to 14th this year, rejigging key parts of their list in an attempt to strengthen their ball-winning power. If they can do that and keep their formidable ball-movement patterns, the sky is the limit. Also, did you know Errol Gulden is still only 21? That doesn’t seem fair.
The Shinboner posting schedule between now and the season’s start on March 7
Feb 7: The Look Ahead*: West Coast & North Melbourne
Feb 8: The Look Ahead: Hawthorn & Gold Coast
Feb 9: The Look Ahead: Fremantle & Richmond
Feb 12: The Look Ahead: Geelong & Essendon
Feb 13: The Look Ahead: Adelaide & Western Bulldogs
Feb 14: The Look Ahead: Sydney & St Kilda
Feb 15: The Look Ahead: Melbourne & Port Adelaide
Feb 16: The Look Ahead: GWS & Carlton
Feb 19: The Look Ahead: Brisbane & Collingwood
Feb 20: Assessing the over and under win totals
Feb 22: North Melbourne match simulation assessment**
Feb 26: From The Notebook: Match Simulation
March 4: North Melbourne pre-season match review
Match 5: From The Notebook: Pre-Season Games
March 6: 2024 Team Tiers
*Each team will have their own Look Ahead piece with two posted per day
**Whether this happens is heavily reliant on the quality of streaming camera angles on the day